053
FXUS62 KFFC 180617
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
117 AM EST THU DEC 18 2025
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 116 AM EST THU DEC 18 2025
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATER THIS MORNING, LINGERING THROUGH THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AND CLEARING OUT FRIDAY MORNING.
- BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO REBOUND OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EST THU DEC 18 2025
WATER VAPORY IMAGERY INDICATES MID AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ALONG THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. THIS IS OVERTOP OF A STILL
RELATIVELY COOL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. AS
THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTNORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ALABAMA TODAY,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AND CLOUDCOVER WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN CHECK, BUT THEY WILL STILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AND
THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS TODAY AND
TONIGHT, ALONG WITH A STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT. COOLING ALOFT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY/MUCAPE
DEVELOPING, BUT THE DAYTIME PRECIPITATION SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. THEREFORE A WEAKENING BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY
OCCUR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES OF PRECIPITATION, THE ONLY MEANINGFUL
PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 1" OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTH
GEORGIA COUNTIES AND ALSO IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES NEAR A
POTENTIAL CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING OUT OF THE GULF. COOLER AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EST THU DEC 18 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, WITH MOST AREAS DROPPING
BELOW FREEZING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE OHIO/TN VALLEY REGIONS ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (25%
OR LESS) THAT PORTIONS OF NORTH GA MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS. BUT WITH THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THESE FEATURES AND A
LACK OF OVERALL MOISTURE, THE MOST WE'RE LIKELY TO SEE IS AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON SUNDAY. BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES TO THE NORTHEAST LIKELY RESULTING IN A WEAK CAD
WEDGE AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO KICK OFF THE WORK WEEK.
THERE ARE STILL GOOD INDICATIONS AMONG GLOBAL ENSEMBLES THAT A
BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETS UP AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL US AND STICKS AROUND FOR A GOOD PORTIONS OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
VFR AND DRY TO START THIS TAF PERIOD WITH IFR AND PRECIP AFTER 14
TO 16Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT AFTER 9Z AT WESTERN SITES, BUT REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THIS
CYCLE FOR ALL SITES, EXCEPT ATL. VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH 9 TO 11Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING JUST
AROUND SUNRISE. WILL SEE PRECIP MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES JUST
AFTER SUNRISE WITH IFR CEILINGS AROUND 14 TO 16Z. THESE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAIL END OF THIS SET, GENERALLY 2 TO 6Z THU
NIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE E TO SE OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS IN
THE 5-10 KT RANGE THU AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHWEST
AFTER 3Z, BEFORE SWITCHING MORE WESTERLY RIGHT AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH THROUGH 18Z. LOW ON THUNDERSTORMS AND
TIMING IN THIS CYCLE THROUGH 00Z, BUT MEDIUM TO HIGH ON RAIN
CHANCES AND CEILINGS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 44 55 31 58 / 90 0 0 0
ATLANTA 42 53 33 59 / 80 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 33 46 28 55 / 90 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 38 52 29 60 / 90 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 45 58 32 61 / 60 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 41 53 32 56 / 90 0 0 0
MACON 46 58 31 61 / 80 0 0 0
ROME 41 54 29 64 / 90 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 41 54 29 61 / 80 0 0 0
VIDALIA 55 64 35 64 / 80 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JDAVIS-BMX
LONG TERM....JDAVIS-BMX/07
AVIATION...16-BMX
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