946
FXUS62 KFFC 181132
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
632 AM EST THU DEC 18 2025
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 624 AM EST THU DEC 18 2025
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATER THIS MORNING, LINGERING THROUGH THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AND CLEARING OUT FRIDAY MORNING.
- BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO REBOUND OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EST THU DEC 18 2025
WATER VAPORY IMAGERY INDICATES MID AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ALONG THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. THIS IS OVERTOP OF A STILL
RELATIVELY COOL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. AS
THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTNORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ALABAMA TODAY,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AND CLOUDCOVER WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN CHECK, BUT THEY WILL STILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AND
THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS TODAY AND
TONIGHT, ALONG WITH A STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT. COOLING ALOFT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY/MUCAPE
DEVELOPING, BUT THE DAYTIME PRECIPITATION SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. THEREFORE A WEAKENING BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY
OCCUR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES OF PRECIPITATION, THE ONLY MEANINGFUL
PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 1" OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTH
GEORGIA COUNTIES AND ALSO IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES NEAR A
POTENTIAL CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING OUT OF THE GULF. COOLER AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EST THU DEC 18 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, WITH MOST AREAS DROPPING
BELOW FREEZING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE OHIO/TN VALLEY REGIONS ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (25%
OR LESS) THAT PORTIONS OF NORTH GA MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS. BUT WITH THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THESE FEATURES AND A
LACK OF OVERALL MOISTURE, THE MOST WE'RE LIKELY TO SEE IS AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON SUNDAY. BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES TO THE NORTHEAST LIKELY RESULTING IN A WEAK CAD
WEDGE AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO KICK OFF THE WORK WEEK.
THERE ARE STILL GOOD INDICATIONS AMONG GLOBAL ENSEMBLES THAT A
BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETS UP AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL US AND STICKS AROUND FOR A GOOD PORTIONS OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST THU DEC 18 2025
LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN TO START REACHING THE GROUND THIS MORNING AS
THE COLUMN SATURATES. IN ADDITION, CURRENT MVFR-VFR CIGS SHOULD
LOWER TO LIFR-IFR THIS MORNING, CONTINUING UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO OCCUR AS RAIN BECOMES MODERATE
IN INTENSITY BY THIS AFTERNOON. NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY GIVEN A LACK OF INSTABILITY. A BREAK IN THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING, THOUGH NOT
EXPLICITLY MENTIONED IN THE TAF, BEFORE A WEAKENING LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVES IN ALONG A COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY, SHIFTING TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE BECOMING
GUSTY TO 20-25KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND RAIN MOVING IN.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON VISIBILITIES IN THE RAIN AND TIMING OF
POTENTIAL BREAKS IN THE RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING.
JDAVIS-BMX
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 60 42 55 31 / 90 90 0 0
ATLANTA 60 40 53 33 / 90 80 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 54 33 46 28 / 90 100 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 59 37 52 29 / 90 90 0 0
COLUMBUS 63 44 58 32 / 90 70 0 0
GAINESVILLE 56 39 53 32 / 100 90 0 0
MACON 63 45 58 31 / 90 80 0 0
ROME 61 39 54 29 / 90 90 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 61 40 54 29 / 90 80 0 0
VIDALIA 68 53 64 35 / 90 80 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JDAVIS-BMX
LONG TERM....JDAVIS-BMX/07
AVIATION...JDAVIS-BMX
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