001
FXUS62 KFFC 190120
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
820 PM EST THU DEC 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 813 PM EST THU DEC 18 2025
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST
GEORGIA UNTIL 2 AM EST.
- WEATHER WILL REMAIN DREARY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A CHANCE FOR
AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM AFTER DARK, BUT QUICKLY BEGIN
TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
- GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE BY CHRISTMAS DAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 813 PM EST THU DEC 18 2025
CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET, WITH OVERCAST CLOUDS OF 1000 FT OR LESS ROUGHLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-85. LOWEST CEILINGS AND DENSE FOG (WITH VISIBILITY OF
1/4SM OR LESS) HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST GEORGIA,
WITHIN AND TO THE IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS, WARRANTING A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN THIS AREA. THE DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA, AROUND 2 AM ON FRIDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EST THU DEC 18 2025
A MIXED BAG OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE BLANKET NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF INSOLATION DUE TO
BROKEN AND OVERCAST SKIES HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE
TODAY WITH CURRENT READINGS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S (SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS). NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES TO RISE
ALL THAT MUCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SO 'HIGH' TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF WHAT THEY ARE NOW. A
SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL OVERALL BE LACKING AND IT IS
LARGELY ANTICIPATED THAT STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE, THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE THAT A STRONGER SURFACE BASED STORM COULD MAKE IT
INTO OUR AREA (NAMELY NW/W GEORGIA). DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND A
MIDLEVEL JET SUPPORT THIS IDEA, THOUGH AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEAST OUR AREA WILL BECOME FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT -- THUS DECREASING ANY SMALL THREAT OF STRONGER
STORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SPC HAS PAINTED A MARGINAL
RISK AREA (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN AND NORTH AL
JUST TO OUR NW.
IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT, DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST. WE'LL SEE A
BRIEF RETURN OF WIDESPREAD AT OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES EFFECT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EST THU DEC 18 2025
AS WE ENTER THE WEEKEND AND THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON
SATURDAY, THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE MILD AND POST-FRONTAL. AFTER A
CHILLY START (TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30) THAT MORNING
THANKS TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT, EXPECT A FAIRLY WIDE
SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE AS AFTERNOON HIGHS SURGE INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID-60S UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
ON SUNDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY RIDING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT LOW-END (20% OR LESS) CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WEAKLY-BOLSTERED MOISTURE WILL BE
EFFACED QUICKLY AS A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN IN ITS WAKE, AND
CURRENTLY, FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE NEAR ZERO -- SO EXPECT MOST
TO REMAIN DRY AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKING UP
RESIDENCE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND EVENTUALLY RETROGRADING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST, EXPECT GENERALLY DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE. RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS AT
THE MID-LEVELS THROUGH MID-WEEK, AND A FEW PASSING DISTURBANCES IN
PROGRESSIVELY MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY SUPPORT WEAK PRECIPITATION
CHANCES (CURRENTLY <15%) ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THEIR GLANCING BLOWS. NOT LOOKING LIKE ANY LOCALES WILL
RECEIVE MEANINGFUL RAINFALL AT THIS TIME.
NOTABLY, THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN SUPPORTS WARMING TEMPERATURES
UNDER SUBSIDENCE. MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST IN THE EXTENDED, WITH
WEAK WEDGING DROPPING HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 50S TO NEAR 60. FROM
THERE, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FAIRLY SUBSTANTIALLY INTO THE MID-60S
TO MID-70S BY WEDNESDAY -- AS MUCH AS 13 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE (!). SADLY, IT'S LOOKING LIKE A T-SHIRT CHRISTMAS THIS YEAR.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM EST THU DEC 18 2025
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION, WITH A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AS
THE PERIOD BEGINS EXPECTED TO BECOME IFR BETWEEN 500-700 FT BY
03-04Z. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -SHRA IS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
FAR NORTH AND EAST-CENTRAL GA, THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A BRIEF
DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AROUND THE I-85 CORRIDOR AND ATL. AS A
COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE AREA, A LINE OF SHRA AND ISOLATED
TSRA WILL MOVE THROUGH ATL BETWEEN 04-07Z, CONTINUING SOUTHEAST
BEFORE PASSING THROUGH MCN BETWEEN 06-09Z. LIFR CEILINGS COULD
ALSO BE PRESENT DURING THIS TIME WINDOW. SE WINDS BETWEEN 8-12
KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 18-22 KTS WILL SHIFT TO SW AROUND MIDNIGHT,
THEN TO NW AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
SKIES BECOMING CLEAR AROUND 14-15Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CEILINGS AND TIMING OF
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
KING
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 43 53 30 58 / 60 0 0 0
ATLANTA 41 52 32 60 / 60 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 33 44 28 55 / 90 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 38 51 27 61 / 90 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 45 57 31 62 / 50 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 41 52 31 57 / 70 0 0 0
MACON 46 58 30 62 / 80 0 0 0
ROME 39 52 29 63 / 90 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 40 53 29 62 / 50 0 0 0
VIDALIA 54 64 33 64 / 70 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ006>009-014>016.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...KING
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