194
FXUS62 KFFC 240016
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
716 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
..NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 657 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
- RECORD TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH CHRISTMAS
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
FORECAST CONSIDERATIONS THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE:
THE MAIN POINT OF INTEREST IN THE FORECAST THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE
WILL BE THE UNUSUAL WARMTH. TONIGHT'S LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
50S, MEANING THAT MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL START OFF
CHRISTMAS EVE WITH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPERATURES. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WAA DURING THE DAY AND
BY THE TIME THE AFTERNOON ARRIVES 70 DEGREE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WIDESPREAD. THE RECORD HIGH FOR ATLANTA IS 73 DEGREES (SET IN 2016),
AND THIS SHOULD GET REPLACED WITH A NEW RECORD (90% CHANCE). DAILY
RECORD HIGHS ARE MORE ROBUST AT THE REST OF THE REGIONAL CLIMATE
SITES (ATHENS 77 DEGREES, COLUMBUS 79 DEGREES & MACON 77 DEGREES),
BUT SEVERAL OF THESE COULD FALL AS WELL. OF THE THREE MACON HAS THE
BEST ODDS OF REACHING A NEW RECORD, RIGHT AROUND AN 84% CHANCE. ALL
THE PROBABILITIES HERE ARE DERIVED FROM NBM GUIDANCE. THE PRIMARY
BUST FACTOR IN THE FORECAST IS CLOUD COVER. MORE CLOUDS THAN
FORECAST WOULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGHS, WHILE FEWER
WOULD INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE RECORDS TO FALL.
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT SOUTH OF COLUMBUS, BUT IN
GENERAL THE WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE NEEDED GULF
MOISTURE FOCUSED OVER SOUTH GEORGIA. IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
ANYONE TRAVELING TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA TOMORROW MORNING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL PICK UP ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH CONTINUED
WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. A BROAD 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE REGIME WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS ON CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL LARGELY START
OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. ASIDE
FROM HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS,
HIGHS WILL THEN RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE AFTERNOON.
THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15-23 DEGREES ABOVE DAILY NORMALS,
AND COULD FURTHERMORE PUSH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR
MAIN CLIMATE SITES (ATLANTA, ATHENS, MACON, AND COLUMBUS). THESE
LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION,
WHICH COULD SPREAD ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS INTO
PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH GEORGIA, THOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEGLIGIBLE.
BY LATE SATURDAY, THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE
BROKEN DOWN AND WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE MERGING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JET STREAMS, WHICH COULD BRING A JET STREAK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. A QUICKLY
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL THEN EXTEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH
TENNESSEE AND TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD, THE FRONT IS
ANTICIPATED TO PUSH INTO FAR NORTH GEORGIA SUNDAY NIGHT, ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH CHANCES DIMINISHING
EARLY MONDAY AS THE FRONT WEAKENS IN CENTRAL GEORGIA. MODEL
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL DETERMINE THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THESE SHOWERS. NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR WILL
SET UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT, FIRST IN FAR NORTHWEST
GEORGIA BY MONDAY MORNING, THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 657 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
VFR AT ALL SITES TO START TAF PERIOD. SOME CIGS IN THE 035-070
RANGE ARE AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE METRO TAF SITES AND MAY
OCCASIONALLY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER FOR NEXT FEW
HOURS. CIGS MAY BUILD BACK IN DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CURRENT
TAF SHOWS VFR AT 040, BUT SOME CHANCE THAT THESE COULD BE MVFR.
CIGS EXPECTED TO SCT AFTER SUNRISE, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THEY
HANG ON A BIT LONGER AFTER SUNRISE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS FLIP
TO NW AFTER SUNRISE AND ARE 5-9 KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CIGS (SEE DISCUSSION), HIGH ALL OTHERS.
LUSK
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 52 75 53 75 / 0 0 10 0
ATLANTA 54 73 54 75 / 0 0 10 0
BLAIRSVILLE 50 67 51 68 / 20 0 20 10
CARTERSVILLE 53 73 53 74 / 0 0 10 0
COLUMBUS 50 77 51 75 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 55 73 54 73 / 0 0 10 0
MACON 50 77 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 56 76 55 75 / 0 0 10 0
PEACHTREE CITY 52 74 52 76 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 52 77 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ALBRIGHT
LONG TERM....KING
AVIATION...LUSK
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