926
FXUS62 KFFC 072024
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
324 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 321 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY AS MUCH AS 10 TO 25 DEGREES
CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY. A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY
FALL THROUGH SATURDAY.
- REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTH GEORGIA FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3" WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4-5" WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTH
GEORGIA. SOME FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING COULD OCCUR.
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
THE SHORT TERM IS STILL VERY BENIGN BUT THINGS CHANGE VERY
QUICKLY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS. CURRENT
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS
THE AREA AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET PUMPED IN FROM WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE OVERALL FLOW BECOMES MORE E TO SE THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY.
WITH THIS ATLANTIC MOISTURE MOVING IN OVER THE REGION WE COULD
SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO THU NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GA
WHERE YOU HAVE THE OROGRAPHIC AFFECTS (UPSLOPING FLOW) WITH THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN. NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THU NIGHT. STILL
EXPECTING VERY WARM TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS TONIGHT AND
THU NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGH TEMPS THU
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN SEEING HEAVY RAINFALL IMPACT AN
AREA FROM NORTHERN AL INTO EASTERN TN AND FAR NORTH GA ON FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY. SYNOPTICALLY, A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE OVER THE 4
CORNERS REGION ON FRIDAY WILL EJECT SLOWLY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE (REALLY A TROPOPAUSE POLAR VORTEX)
DIVING IN FROM THE ARCTIC INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BROAD AREA OF
LIFT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS MOISTURE COMES SURGING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE GULF WITH PWAT ANOMALIES IN EXCESS OF 1". LOCAL
AREA OF CONVERGENCE SETS US WITHIN THE MANY OF THE MODELS BETWEEN
850 AND 700 MB IN THE AREAS LISTED ABOVE FOR HEAVIEST RAIN, LEADING
TO SAID HEAVY RAIN. THIS AREA REMAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
UNTIL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. NBM
MEAN SHOWS WIDESPREAD 2-3" IN PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA WHICH IS
DRIVING THE CURRENT EXPECTED QPF. 90TH PERCENTILES ARE DRIVING THE
MESSAGING FOR THE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS, WITH WIDESPREAD 4-5" IN
PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA. ONE ADDITIONAL THING WORTH MENTIONING IS
WHAT SOME OF THE AI GUIDANCE IS KEYING IN ON WHICH IS A BIT OF A
SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE QPF DISTRIBUTION COMPARED TO THE REGULAR
MODELS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH A COMMON BIAS OF THE MODELS THAT THE
STATISTICAL CORRELATIONS ARE POTENTIALLY CATCHING. QPF AMOUNTS MAY
EVEN BE A BIT HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY.
THE WPC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) ACROSS
FAR NORTH GEORGIA. WHILE MAY RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE LOW GIVEN THE
LACK OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS WINTER SO FAR, IT IS
WINTER AND WE DO NOT HAVE NEARLY AS MUCH UPTAKE IN GROUND WATER FROM
VEGETATION AS OTHER TIMES OF YEAR. THIS AMOUNT OF QPF WILL CERTAINLY
CREATE SOME FLOODING ISSUES IN A FEW LOCATIONS IF IT COMES TO PASS,
ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN DOES OCCUR.
ONE QUICK MINOR THING TO DISCUSS BEFORE WE MOVE TO THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SEEING SOME RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD
MINIMUM HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL SURGE WELL INTO THE
70S AND EVEN INTO THE 80S IN PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA ON
FRIDAY. SEVERAL OF OUR CLIMATE SITES HAVE FORECAST HIGHS THAT ARE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE DAILY RECORD. OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, MINIMUM TEMPS MAY ONLY DIP INTO THE LOWER 60S THANKS TO A
COMBINATION OF WAA, MOISTURE, AND CLOUD COVER. THESE WOULD
DEFINITELY BREAK RECORD MINIMUMS...BUT A BIG SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY
WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA - IT MAY
BE THE CASE THAT MORNING TEMPS IN SOME AREAS ARE ACTUALLY HIGHER
THAN TEMPERATURES AT 11:59 PM. ON THAT SAME NOTE, HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON WHERE THE FRONT IS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
HOW MUCH RAIN/STORMS ARE GENERATED ALONG IT, WHICH WILL HAVE BIG
IMPACTS ON APPROACHING ANY RECORDS.
ON THE NOTE OF THE SEVERE POTENTIAL, WE ARE STARTING TO GET A LOOK
AT SOME HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE NAM (EVEN IF THE NAM
DO BE NAMING). NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS. IT REMAINS A CONDITIONAL THREAT
IN MANY WAYS, DEPENDENT UPON HOW EFFECTIVELY THE FRONT CAN PRODUCE
CONVECTION THROUGH MECHANICAL FORCING AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, DESPITE A NEGATIVE
TILT, STILL REMAINS WELL TO THE NW MEANING THE UPPER LEVELS ARE
WARM. LAPSE RATES ARE VERY POOR AS A RESULT. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO STRUGGLE PRODUCING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SURFACE BASED CAPE, WITH
EVEN THE HIGHER END GUIDANCE REMAINING BELOW 500 J/KG INTO THE
AFTERNOON. BUT, SHEAR REMAINS IMPRESSIVE, AND THE NAM (NAM BE
NAMING) CAME IN SHOWING 70 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND SRH VALUES IN THE
300 M2/S2 (PROVIDED YOU CAN GET A RIGHT MOVER THAN REMAINS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT). SO, THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR A STORM TO GET SQUIRRELLY
UNDER THE RIGHT CIRCUMSTANCES. SPC HAS GIVEN A MARGINAL RISK ON LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA, AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A MARGINAL RISK POP UP IN LATER UPDATES FOR
SATURDAY IF THE CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT HOLDS.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, PSUEDO-SPRING ENDS AND WINTER
RETURNS, THOUGH NOT WITH AS MUCH BITE AS PREVIOUS ENCOUNTERS THIS
SEASON WITH THE ARCTIC. LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE 30S AND
40S AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR MOST (COULD
STILL BE A LITTLE WARMER IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS). WE GET ANOTHER PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE BULK OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES BY, BRINGING A POLAR HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S. WE SEE A
SLOW WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT CHANCE AT RAIN MAY BE BY MID
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS THIS MORNING SLOWLY LIFTING AND
DIMINISHING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS NOW BUT STILL DEALING WITH
SOME ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO
LIFT THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
CEILINGS AND VSBYS EARLY THU MORNING. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE W TO NW
IN THE 5-10KT AND SHOULD DIMINISH TO 3KT OR LESS OVER NIGHT.
WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE EAST AFTER SUNRISE THU. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
01
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 47 67 55 73 / 0 10 20 30
ATLANTA 51 69 58 71 / 0 10 10 40
BLAIRSVILLE 43 63 52 63 / 0 10 30 70
CARTERSVILLE 49 69 59 70 / 0 10 20 60
COLUMBUS 55 73 57 76 / 0 20 10 20
GAINESVILLE 48 64 56 69 / 0 10 20 50
MACON 52 74 56 78 / 0 10 0 10
ROME 52 73 61 73 / 0 10 10 70
PEACHTREE CITY 50 71 57 72 / 0 10 10 30
VIDALIA 56 77 57 80 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....LUSK
AVIATION...01
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