074
FXUS62 KFFC 082349
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
649 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 648 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY AS MUCH AS 15 TO 25 DEGREES
CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY. A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY
FALL THROUGH SATURDAY.
- REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTH GEORGIA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3" WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA.
SOME FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING COULD OCCUR.
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND STEADY WAA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
CONSIDERING HIGH DEWPOINTS, LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WILL LARGELY BE IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60, WHICH
WILL BE FROM 20 DEGREES ABOVE DAILY NORMALS (SOUTH-CENTRAL
GEORGIA) TO AS MUCH AS 32 DEGREES ABOVE DAILY NORMALS (FAR
NORTHWEST GEORGIA). QUITE UN-JANUARY-LIKE. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL, MOST LIKELY IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FOG COULD BECOME DENSE
AT TIMES AND LEAD TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OF A QUARTER OF A
MILE OR LESS. HI-RES GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATES THAT DENSE FOG
WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN AN AREA ROUGHLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM CORDELE TO WARRENTON.
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, WHICH WILL DISPLACE THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AWAY
TO THE EAST. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW WILL EXTEND INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS THE MORNING BEGINS, AND WILL
SLOWLY TRAVERSE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE GEORGIA OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT
BEHIND THE RETREATING RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL
PROMOTE CONTINUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE AND PWATS RISING TO BETWEEN
1.25-1.5". SHOWERS WILL BEGIN IN FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA BY MID-
MORNING, SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY. RAIN
CHANCES ON FRIDAY WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-85 CORRIDOR. THE RAIN WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S IN THE FAR NORTHERN TIER. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, HIGHS WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN TODAY, RISING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S IN NORTH GEORGIA TO UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IN CENTRAL
GEORGIA. THESE HIGHS COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED DAILY RECORDS AT
ATL, MCN, AND AHN, AND WILL RANGE FROM 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HEAVIER, MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET ON FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME, THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS FAR NORTH AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA, WHICH
COULD SEE TOTALS BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES (AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE MOUNTAINS) DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALONE. LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS AND IN LOW-
LYING AREAS AND AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE. THE WPC HAS FURTHERMORE
DIAGNOSED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. SOME
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL OCCUR, WITH SOME SOLUTIONS INDICATING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
I-20 CORRIDOR. POPS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY LOWER
AS ONE GOES FURTHER SOUTH FROM THE ATLANTA METRO AREA.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WIDESPREAD
RAIN. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAWS CLOSER TO THE STATE LINE, LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 25-30 KTS
AND 55-65 KTS, RESPECTIVELY BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. WHILE
LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED,
STORMS COULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO SBCAPE VALUES OF 150-250 J/KG IN
FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA IN THE FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE ON SATURDAY
MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS, THE COMBINATION OF EVEN THIS MARGINAL
SBCAPE COMBINED WITH THE SHEAR VALUES WILL ALLOW FOR STORMS TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO. AS SUCH, THE SPC HAS OUTLOOKED FAR NORTHWEST
GEORGIA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH
7 AM ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD...
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
THE LONG TERM PICKS UP ON SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE CWA. THE ACTUAL FRONT WILL STILL BE BACK
ACROSS MS SAT MORNING BUT ONGOING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY FOR
THE NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY UNTIL THE FRONT CAN FINALLY
CATCH UP IN THE AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SURFACE BASED CAPE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNDER 500 J/KG AS THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF. THE CURRENT MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT SHEAR WILL BE THE BIGGEST
CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR 70KTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND EVEN A TAD BIT HIGHER
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WOULD DEFINITELY BRING AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SAT. TO SUM IT ALL UP, THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY
WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.
AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA SUNDAY, SOME AREAS MAINLY ACROSS
NORTH GA WILL HAVE SEEN 2-3" OF PRECIP WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THE REST OF THE STATE (ATL TO AHN AND SOUTHWARD) WILL SEE 1" TO 2"
TOTALS. MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS IN SOME FORM OF DROUGHT, SO
WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS ARE LOW BUT SOME URBAN AREAS COULD SEE
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AS
IT UNFOLDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A DRIER AIRMASS DOES MOVE IN ACROSS THE REGION SUN AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE LOOKS
TO KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH DAY 7. DRY CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH VALUES AROUND FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK. LOWS MON MORNING THROUGH WED MORNING WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S
TO MIDDLE 30S. HIGHS MON THROUGH WED WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 648 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH AN MVFR DECK
BUILDING AFTER 03Z. BOTH CIGS AND VIS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE
TOWARDS IFR BY 10Z WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN FG AFTER 10Z THAT COULD BRING VIS DOWN TO 3SM.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REBOUND TO MVFR AFTER 16Z AS RAIN APPROACHES THE
AREA. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY SE AT LESS THAN 5KTS BUT WILL BECOME SW
AROUND 16Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
LOW ON FG FORMATION
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
VAUGHN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 56 73 61 72 / 10 50 70 90
ATLANTA 58 72 63 71 / 10 60 80 90
BLAIRSVILLE 51 63 55 64 / 30 80 100 100
CARTERSVILLE 58 71 60 69 / 10 80 90 100
COLUMBUS 57 77 63 75 / 10 30 40 90
GAINESVILLE 56 69 61 68 / 20 70 90 90
MACON 57 79 60 77 / 0 10 20 70
ROME 61 73 63 72 / 20 90 100 100
PEACHTREE CITY 57 73 62 71 / 10 60 70 90
VIDALIA 58 81 61 81 / 0 0 0 20
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KING
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...VAUGHN
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