937
FXUS62 KFFC 091814
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
114 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
..NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1256 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MAY LEAD TO INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING OR RIVER FLOODING
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA.
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
CURRENTLY:
NO SURPRISE THAT PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM JUST SOUTH OF COLUMBUS TO WARRENTON UNTIL 10AM.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AS FOG CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH --
EXPANSIONS MAY BE NEEDED.
TODAY:
A PATTERN SHIFT IS ON THE HORIZON AS MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL
RETURNS AND STAYS WITH US THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THE WARM FRONT
CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTH, NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL BE WELL
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
WARM, MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN SHOWERS ARE
SLATED TO BEGIN AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA
(AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST GA MOUNTAINS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT) AND
THE ATL METRO BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A SHARP CUT
OFF OF RAIN WITH AREAS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN GEORGIA LIKELY NOT
SEEING ANY RAIN UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL KEEP A LID ON RISING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH GA (MID 60S) WHILE TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF
MACON ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH 80 DEGREES. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS, HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH OR
EXCEED DAILY RECORDS.
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY:
RAINFALL BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER TONIGHT. DESPITE THE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS THAT STILL REMAIN, THERE IS STILL A CONCERN THAT
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY POSE A THREAT WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL OCCURS -- ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
NORTH AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA IS STILL LOOKING TO BE THE SWEET SPOT
FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH TOTALS UP TO 2 INCHES THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A DEEPER FOCUS ON NORTH
GEORGIA, LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL DEVELOPING ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE I-85/I-20
CORRIDOR AROUND THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. THIS ALIGNS
WITH A SECONDARY LOW FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH CENTRAL AL. THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL BY WPC WAS PUSHED SOUTHWARD EVERY SO SLIGHTLY BUT LARGELY
REMAINS UNCHANGED.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY INCH ITS WAY TOWARDS THE STATE ON SATURDAY
AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL AID IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
THE STORY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. DESPITE OVERALL LIMITED
INSTABILITY, WHAT LITTLE INSTABILITY THERE IS COUPLED WITH DECENT
SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS OR A BRIEF SPIN UP TORNADO. SPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) THAT COVERS MOST OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. ANOTHER IMPORTANT NOTE -- ANY STRONGER STORMS
ARE LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO INSTANCES OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL SET UP. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH
THROUGH THE STATE SATURDAY EVENING GRADUALLY BRINGING RAINFALL AND
ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO AN END.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD OPENS ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH POST-
FRONTAL CONDITIONS AREAWIDE, AND DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO DROP BACK INTO
THE TEENS TO 20S BY THE AFTERNOON -- COMPARED TO DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID-60S JUST 24 HOURS EARLIER (!). THE COMBINATION OF 1) A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR BEING USHERED IN BY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
AT THE MID-LEVELS AND 2) SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY NOSING ITS WAY
EASTWARD AND ATOP THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD SEE THAT WE DO NOT RETURN TO
THE PERPETUAL MORNING FOG GAUNTLET OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. EACH
DAY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD SEE MILD, MORE WINTER-LIKE
CONDITIONS, WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AFTERNOON HIGHS
WARMING JUST A TICK EACH DAY: STARTING IN THE MID-40S TO NEAR 60 ON
SUNDAY, MODERATING INTO THE MID-50S TO NEAR 60 BY TUESDAY. WITH A
DRIER AIRMASS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, EXPECT NIGHTS TO BE MUCH
COOLER THAN THOSE WE'VE STARTED THE YEAR WITH, DROPPING INTO THE
MORE SEASONABLE 20S TO 30S.
BEYOND TUESDAY, A MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW SITUATED ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL PHASE WITH AN UPPER-STREAM TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST, AMPLIFYING UNTIL MUCH OF
CONUS IS SITUATED UNDER BROAD TROUGHING BY MIDWEEK. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURE WILL NUDGE OUR PRESIDING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, SETTING THE STAGE FOR OUR
NEXT ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS RATHER MESSY AT THIS TIMESTEP -- ESPECIALLY AT THE
SURFACE -- SO HAVE OPTED TO CAP CHANCES AT 20-30% UNTIL THE
SYSTEMS ARE RESOLVED IN GREATER DETAIL AND WITH BETTER CONGRUENCY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
VFR TO START TAF PERIOD AT ALL BUT RYY. ONLY DOWNHILL FROM THERE.
SHRA SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT TAF SITES BY 22-23Z, POSSIBLY SOONER
AT RYY. CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, GOING
MVFR BY 02-04Z THEN IFR BY 05-07Z. RAIN WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO
TOMORROW. SMALL CHANCE OF SEEING SOME THUNDER THOUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, BUT BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING 14-20Z TOMORROW AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE AREA. IFR TO MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN
THROUGH END OF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SW TO START, MOVE SE
OVERNIGHT, THEN MOVE BACK TO SW THEN W TO NW THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WINDS PICK UP TOMORROW TO BE 6-12 KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CIGS, TSRA TIMING. HIGH ALL OTHERS.
LUSK
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 74 61 72 43 / 60 80 80 40
ATLANTA 72 62 70 41 / 70 80 90 20
BLAIRSVILLE 64 54 64 32 / 90 100 90 20
CARTERSVILLE 71 59 69 37 / 90 90 90 10
COLUMBUS 76 64 74 44 / 30 50 80 40
GAINESVILLE 70 61 69 40 / 80 90 90 20
MACON 79 62 77 46 / 10 30 70 60
ROME 71 62 71 40 / 90 90 90 10
PEACHTREE CITY 74 62 72 40 / 60 70 90 30
VIDALIA 80 62 82 53 / 0 0 10 60
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR GAZ001>009-011>016-
019>021-030.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...LUSK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page