069
FXUS62 KFFC 100558
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1258 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1249 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MAY
LEAD TO INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING OR RIVER FLOODING
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT.
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF SPIN UP TORNADO.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT:
IMPACTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. THE MAIN HEADLINE UP FRONT IS HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH 2-3" AND ISOLATED 4+"
AMOUNTS THAT COULD GENERATE SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. A FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA WHERE THE
GREATEST CHANCES OF SEEING THIS RAIN COULD OCCUR. AFTER THE HEAVY
RAINFALL, A FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW AND BRING
CHANCES OF A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY RISKS WILL BE A
FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND A QUICK SPIN UP TORNADO,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COLUMBUS AREA WHERE THE BEST INTERSECTION OF
INGREDIENTS WILL BE.
DISCUSSION:
AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE SWINGING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA HAS HELP
DRAW SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INTO THE SE AHEAD OF A MUCH LARGER TROUGH
TO THE WEST. DUE TO THE DEEPER TROUGH THAT IS EJECTING OUT OF THE 4
CORNERS REGION TODAY, UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FROM THE SW CONTINUING
TO AID IN BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. PWAT ANOMALIES OVER THE
COMING 24 HOURS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 1" ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE,
DEMONSTRATING HOW PRIMED THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
NOTABLE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IS IN PLACE ACROSS AL AND NORTHERN GA
THIS AFTERNOON FROM 850-700MB WITH STRONG WAA THAT IS DRIVING LIFT
IN THESE AREAS. MODERATE RAIN IS FALLING ALREADY AND IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE WITH MINIMAL BREAKS, AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOVEMENT OF THESE FEATURES UNTIL THE BIGGER TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS ON SATURDAY. EXPECT MULTIPLE WAVES OF RAINFALL UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY STILL HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY
HANGING OVER THEM. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT ON GENERAL AMOUNTS
BEING BETWEEN 2-3" NORTH OF I-85 IN THE EAST AND I-20 IN THE WEST.
SOME GUIDANCE PUSHES SOME BANDS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, BRINGING A QUICK 2-3"
THERE AS WELL. THE HIGHER END AMOUNTS ARE WHERE THINGS GET A BIT
MORE INTERESTING. WHILE I AM LOATHE TO HONE IN ON A SINGLE MODEL,
THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SEEN A SIGNIFICANT BAND OF
RAINFALL FORMING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT DROPS 5-6" OR MORE OF RAINFALL.
THIS IS REPRESENTATIVE OF A BIG CONCERN FROM THE GET GO WITH THIS
FORECAST FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, WHICH IS REPEATED ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAIN FALLING OVER THE SAME AREAS. THIS WOULD CERTAINLY LEAD TO
SOME FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH POORER
DRAINAGE OR ALONG CREEKS AND STREAMS THAT ARE PRONE TO FLASH
FLOODING. OTHERWISE, 90TH PERCENTILE QMD QPF WITHIN THE NBM
CONTINUES TO DRIVE MESSAGING FOR THE UPPER END AMOUNTS, WHICH ARE
GENERALLY 3.5-4.5", HENCE THE 4+" FOR ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. GIVEN
ALL THIS, A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NOW UNTIL 7PM SATURDAY
ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. EXPANSION OF THE WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED
UNLESS MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO HEAVILY SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
BANDED, TRAINING PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH.
AS THE CORE OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA SATURDAY,
A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE DRIVEN INTO US THAT WILL BRING AN END TO THE
HEAVY RAINFALL AFTER PASSAGE, BUT INTRODUCE A BIT OF A SEVERE THREAT
ON THE FRONT SIDE. INSTABILITY REMAINS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE TO
GETTING SEVERE WEATHER WITHIN THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGH
REMAINS PARKED WELL TO THE NW, KEEPING THE UPPER LEVELS WARM AND
LAPSE RATES AS "HOT GARBAGE" AS THE KIDS WOULD SAY GIVEN THAT LATENT
HEAT RELEASE WILL MAKE PROFILES LOOK ESSENTIALLY MOIST ADIABATIC.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING IS LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE DUE TO
CLOUD COVER. SO, WE'LL BE RELIANT ON WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WHICH
WILL BE PRETTY STRONG. SOME SBCAPE IS ABLE TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS
THE HREF MEAN INTO AREAS AROUND COLUMBUS MOSTLY THROUGH THAT WAA.
SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE IMPRESSIVE, WITH GREATER THAN 50 KTS OF 0-6
KM SHEAR AND SRH VALUES WELL ABOVE 100 M2/S2. THE AREA AROUND
COLUMBUS WHERE THIS OVERLAP EXISTS HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW WITH A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
THOUGH A BRIEF SPIN UP TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED UP GIVEN THE LOWER
LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES/HODOGRAPH. THIS THREAT WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA.
THE LAST IMPACTFUL THING TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RECORD HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AT ALL CLIMATE SITES RESTS
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE RECORD HIGH. RECORDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TOMORROW FOR CLIMATE SITES ARE:
- AHN: 74, 75
- ATL: 72, 76
- CSG: 78, 80
- MCN: 79, 81
AS FOR RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS, WE LIKELY WILL BE VERY WARM IN THE
MORNING AND IT WILL APPEAR AS THOUGH WE MIGHT SHATTER SOME OF THESE,
BUT SATURDAY WILL BE THE TYPE OF DAY WHERE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AT
MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE SET AT 11:59PM AS THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS FILTERING INTO THE AREA. IF THAT AIR GETS IN FAST ENOUGH,
WE LIKELY WON'T BREAK ANY RECORDS, BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE, ESPECIALLY
IN CSG AND MCN WHERE THE SATURDAY RECORDS ARE 62 AND 59
RESPECTIVELY.
COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE CWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND WE BEGIN TO
CLEAR. OUR PSUEDO-SPRING COMES TO AN END. MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 30S AND 40S FOR MANY, WHICH WILL BE QUITE THE CHANGE.
LUSK
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
THE LONG TERM PICKS UP ON SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
WITH COOL DRY NWLY FLOW. TEMPS SUN MORNING WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S
AND 40S WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER KS/OK BEGINS BUILDING SE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID TO
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z MON. THIS RIDGE KEEPS THINGS DRY AND
COOL MON AND TUE TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR BOTH DAYS
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. THIS RIDGE DOES NOT STICK AROUND FOR
TOO LONG AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKE STATES PUSHES IT OUT WEDNESDAY. THIS NEXT BOUNDARY BRING PRECIP
BACK TO NORTH GA BY WED AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH THU. RIGHT
NOW THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH THIS
NEXT FRONT SO NOT VERY CONFIDENT YET IN LOCATION OR TIMING OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. FOR NOW JUST GOING WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF PRECIP.
01
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
SHRA TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH SITES (MORE ISOLATED AT CSG)
THROUGH 12Z BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AFTER 14Z SATURDAY. IFR/LIFR CIGS TO SETTLE IN AT
THE NORTH SITES BETWEEN NOW AND 08Z WITH MVFR/IFR ELSEWHERE WITH
LITTLE IF ANY IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
TSRA BUT MAINTAIN PROB30S EVERYWHERE COINCIDING WITH THE FROPA. SW
TO SE WINDS TONIGHT SHIFT TO THE SW AFTER 10Z AND SHIFT TO THE W
THEN NW FOLLOWING THE FROPA. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND AROUND TSRA THAT MAY FORM. GUSTY NW WINDS TO FOLLOW FROPA
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
07
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 41 50 27 50 / 50 0 0 0
ATLANTA 41 47 29 49 / 30 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 31 40 19 48 / 20 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 36 47 25 49 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 44 54 29 51 / 50 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 40 47 28 49 / 30 0 0 0
MACON 44 55 28 52 / 70 0 0 0
ROME 40 51 28 53 / 10 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 38 49 25 50 / 30 0 0 0
VIDALIA 52 60 31 54 / 40 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ001>009-011>016-019>021-
030>032-041.
SHORT TERM...LUSK
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...07
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