837
FXUS62 KFFC 101804
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
104 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
..NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1238 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
- TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL GA THROUGH
11 AM EST.
- CONTINUED WAVES OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY MAY LEAD TO
INSTANCES OF FLASH OR RIVER FLOODING IN NORTH GA AS FAR
SOUTH AS I-20. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF SPIN UP TORNADO REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
- A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
EARLY MORNING UPDATE:
A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY SET UP FROM ROUGHLY PEACHTREE CITY, GA
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST BACK INTO CENTRAL AL AND SOUTHERN MS HAS
ALLOWED FOR JUST ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL SPIN IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO CAUSE
ROTATION WITHIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS DESPITE LIMITED
INSTABILITY (STORM FUEL). LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS PAINTS 100-300
MS/S2 OF 0-1KM SRH CONFIRMING WHERE THE BOUNDARY HAS SET UP. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH INCHES CLOSER, ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATING TO PICK
UP FROM NOW UNTIL AT LEAST MID-DAY. THUS A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR FAR WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH 11 AM EST (CHATTOOGA
COUNTY DOWN TO HEARD COUNTY). THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR
NORTH THE BOUNDARY DRIFTS SO TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
CURRENTLY:
A MIXED BAG OF LOW STRATUS AND HIGH CIRRUS BLANKET MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING. THIS HAS LARGELY PREVENTED ANY DENSE
FOG DEVELOPMENT SO FAR -- SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA BEING THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT
IT'S MORE THAN LIKELY LOW STRATUS THAT WILL WIN OUT IN THE AREAS IN
QUESTION.
RADAR ESTIMATED 24HR TOTALS PAINT A BROAD AREA OF 1-1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GA AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN POLK COUNTY.
THOUGH A LOCALLY HIGHER SWATH OF UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES WAS NOTED IN
SOUTHERN CHATTOOGA/NORTH FLOYD/GORDON COUNTIES. WAVES OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING --
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR, THOUGH ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP JUST TO THE NORTH OF COLUMBUS. WHILE
THUNDER HAS NOT BEEN AN ISSUE THUS FAR, SOME EMBEDDED (NON-SEVERE)
STORMS WERE NOTED IN PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA, SO WILL NEED TO
MONITOR TRENDS AS THESE COULD CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVIER POCKETS OF
RAINFALL.
TODAY:
INSTANCES OF FLOODING WILL BE A GROWING CONCERN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF NORTH GA INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE 00Z
HI-RES GUIDANCE NOW AT OUR DISPOSAL, THERE REMAIN CONSISTENT SIGNALS
IN THE SLIGHT SOUTHWARD TREND OF BANDS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. THIS
DOES ALIGN WITH THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND PLACEMENT OF A 850MB
LLJ. GIVEN ALL OF THIS INFORMATION, THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
EXPANDED OUT AN ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION GOING AS FAR SOUTH AS CARROLL
COUNTY (WEST-CENTRAL GA) TO HALL COUNTY (EAST GA) AND DOES INCLUDE
ATL METRO. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 1-2" AND
UPWARDS OF UP TO 4" IN THE HEAVIEST RAINBANDS FOR AREAS WITHIN THE
FLOOD WATCH (NORTH OF I-85 IN THE EAST AND I-20 IN THE WEST). NOTE
THAT WHILE THESE TOTALS MAY SEEM 'LOW' OCCURRING OVER A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME MAY LEAD TO SOME FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY IN LOW-
LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND ALONG CREEKS AND STREAMS THAT ARE
PRONE TO FLOODING. THIS WILL CERTAINLY BEAR WATCHING THROUGH THE
MORNING. ADDITIONAL EXPANSIONS OF THE WATCH ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME UNLESS MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
FURTHER BANDING OR TRAINING PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH. THE AXIS OF
NOTABLE RAINFALL QUICKLY TAPERS THE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST ONE GOES
WITH THE LOWEST TOTALS IN SOUTHEAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA.
A DEEP ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS UP TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DIG EASTWARD TODAY PROMPTING A COLD FRONT TO
BEGIN MOVING THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL AID IN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ATTEMPT TO CONGEAL INTO A DISORGANIZED
LINE AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE STATE. AS ONE WOULD EXPECT, INSTABILITY
WILL BE HARD TO COME BY GIVEN UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT BY THE TROUGH
(WELL TO OUR WEST) AND THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN. WHAT LITTLE INSTABILITY THERE IS COUPLED WITH DECENT SHEAR AND
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS OR A BRIEF SPIN UP
TORNADO. THIS THREAT BEST OVERLAPS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL
GEORGIA (IN THE COLUMBUS VICINITY SOUTHWARD). A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2
OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL
GEORGIA, THOUGH SHIFTED SOUTHWARD BY SPC WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.
AGAIN, THIS SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER IMPORTANT NOTE - ANY STRONGER STORMS
ARE LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO INSTANCES OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL SET UP.
SUNDAY:
THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS GRADUALLY
BRINGING RAINFALL AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO AN END. LOW TO MID-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST INTO THE LATE
EVENING UNTIL THE MAIN FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT. POST-FRONTAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO COOL MORNING
LOW TEMPERATURES. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW
30S (20S IN THE MOUNTAINS) TO UPPER 40S/LOW 50S IN FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL
GEORGIA. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE MORE SEASONAL CLIMBING INTO THE 40S
AND 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
DRY AND COOL (ALBEIT MORE SEASONAL) TEMPERATURES WILL
CHARACTERIZE THE LONG-TERM FORECAST AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH VERY
BROAD TROUGHING TO OUR NORTH. THE MAIN CONCERN AT LEAST THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL BE FOR FIRE WEATHER AS RH VALUES ARE MAY APPROACH
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ( 25% OR LESS) ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA
AS A RESULT OF MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH MID-WEEK BUT REMAIN MORE
SEASONAL. ON SUNDAY FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO UPPER
50S AND BY WEDNESDAY WILL RISE TO THE 50S AND 60S AREAWIDE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGS SOME UNCERTAINTY. LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE HAS ANOTHER TROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA AND SWEEPING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. PRECIPITATION MAY MAKE A
RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BUT INCONSISTENCIES AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE MAKE IT DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT TIMING, AMOUNTS OR PRECIP TYPE AT THIS TIME. STAY
TUNED...
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
THE MAIN LINE HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL THE TAF SITES EXPECT MCN. IT
HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY SO AS IT MOVES THROUGH MCN THEY SHOULD
NOT SEE WHAT THE ATL AREA AIRPORTS SAW. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME LIGHT SHRA BEHIND THE LINE THROUGH 00Z WITH SOME -DZ AS ITS
ABOUT TO END. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE W-SW IN THE 10-15KT RANGE WITH
SOME GUST TO 20KT. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TURN TO THE NW
OVER NIGHT AND STAY THERE THROUGH SUNDAY. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SUN
INTO THE 12-18KT RANGE WITH GUST 25 TO 30KT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
01
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 74 41 50 27 / 80 50 0 0
ATLANTA 70 40 48 28 / 80 30 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 65 30 40 19 / 100 20 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 70 36 47 25 / 90 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 75 43 54 28 / 90 60 0 0
GAINESVILLE 69 39 47 28 / 90 20 0 0
MACON 80 45 56 28 / 60 70 0 0
ROME 72 40 51 28 / 100 10 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 72 37 49 25 / 90 30 0 0
VIDALIA 83 53 61 31 / 10 30 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ001>009-011>016-
019>023-030>034-041>045.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...01
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