768
FXUS62 KFFC 111105
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
605 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 554 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
- GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE ATLANTA METRO AND ATHENS.
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK.
- A GRADUAL DECLINE IN TEMPERATURES IS THE CURRENT TREND LATE
IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THOUGH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT US SOME ACTIVE WEATHER YESTERDAY
CURRENTLY SITS FROM ROUGHLY EASTMAN TO DUBLIN TO WARRENTON AND
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST. POST FRONTAL STRATUS, CIRRUS AND
ISOLATED AREAS OF DRIZZLE STILL REMAIN IN THE AREA BUT GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENTS TO SKY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. THE
BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE TN VALLEY ACCOMPANIED BY
A SECONDARY DRY FRONT AT THE SURFACE THIS MORNING. A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS (IF NOT
ALREADY GUSTY) BY DAYBREAK. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH (UP TO 40 MPH
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000FT IN THE NORTHEAST) WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A QUESTION OF HOW MUCH MIXING
WILL OCCUR TODAY AND IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT WE MIX MORE THAN
ANTICIPATED THEREBY LEADING TO HIGHER WINDS THAT ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. AT THIS TIME A WIND ADVISORY HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED BUT A
SHORT-FUSED ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA FOR THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE MORE LIKELY
TO BE RELEGATED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATION IN NORTHEAST GA.
THE TROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED TO OUR WEST HEADING INTO MONDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST. A
RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT EARLY MONDAY WITH MORNING
LOWS BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. THE MAIN THING TO MONITOR ON
MONDAY WILL BE FIRE WEATHER. RH VALUES MAY APPROACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS DURING THE AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT MAY BE WARRANTED.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
A PAIR OF TROUGHS LATER THIS WEEK:
AS WE MOVE BEYOND MONDAY THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE ON A PAIR
OF TROUGHS DIVING SOUTH FROM CANADA. THE INITIAL TROUGH SHOULD
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN THE SECOND MAY REACH GEORGIA
OVER THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BOTH TROUGHS WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER, WITH THE SECOND HAVING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
TO BRING DEEPER ARCTIC AIR INTO GEORGIA. POOR MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY SUGGESTS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MODEST. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS TO SOUTH GEORGIA
AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. DEPENDING ON HOW THE TROUGH DEVELOPS SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR IN THE NORTH GEORGIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR NEXT
WEEKEND IS VERY HIGH, WITH HALF THE GEFS AND EPS MEMBERS SHOWING
PRECIPITATION AND THE OTHER HALF KEEPING A GOOD PORTION OF THE STATE
DRY. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY IN THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS, ANY
PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD BE REGARDED WITH
CAUTION AT THIS TIME. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR INDIVIDUAL RUNS OF
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS (GFS, ECMWF, CANADIAN), WHICH HAVE
OCCASIONALLY BEEN SHOWING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 18Z GFS RUN FROM SATURDAY WAS ONE OF
THESE OUTLIER MODEL RUNS THAT DEVIATED STRONGLY FROM THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN, MAKING IT A VERY UNLIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. ULTIMATELY
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND PROBABLY WON'T COME INTO REASONABLE
FOCUS UNTIL THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK DUE TO CHALLENGING FUSION
OF CANADIAN AIR AND GULF MOISTURE. OUR FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD
HOVERS NEAR THE ENSEMBLE MEAN, WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE SHIFTING
EAST BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 554 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
00Z WITH PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35KTS BETWEEN 16-22KTS. THE
MAGNITUDE OF GUSTS IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT IF WINDS TURN
MORE TO THE NNW/N (340-360) INCREASED MIXING MAY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS/GUSTS TODAY. WINDS TAPER OFF AFTER 03Z AND WILL BEGIN
TO TURN TO THE N/NNE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON MAGNITUDE OF WINDS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
07
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 48 27 51 30 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 46 28 49 32 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 38 20 49 26 / 0 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 45 25 49 26 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 52 28 52 29 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 45 28 50 32 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 54 28 52 28 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 49 28 54 29 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 48 24 50 27 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 60 30 53 30 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....ALBRIGHT
AVIATION...07
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