738
FXUS62 KFFC 120524
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1224 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1220 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK.
- COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WITH
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR BY LATE WEEK.
- A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION RETURN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IN
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
THE BASE OF A SHARP TROUGH HAS CLEARED NORTH GEORGIA TO THE EAST AND
IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH
TROUGH HAS PUSHED A SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT INTO NORTH GEORGIA.
WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE (1035+ MB) BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE FORECAST AREA. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 30-35 MPH IN THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH ISOLATED WIND GUSTS REACHING AS
HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH APPROACHES AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS UP. THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT IS ALSO PROVIDING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO
NORTH GEORGIA, WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON.
FURTHERMORE, HIGHS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE 30S. HIGHS IN CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
WARMER, LARGELY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
BY MONDAY MORNING, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL LARGELY RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO
LOW 30S AREAWIDE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO DAILY
NORMALS, IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WITH SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH
LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND GUSTY WINDS FROM TODAY SERVING
TO DRY OUT FINER FUELS, IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO SEE FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS DEVELOP IN SOME LOCATIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DROP BELOW 25% FOR A FEW
HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY, LIGHT WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS
UNDER THE HIGH SHOULD PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS FROM BEING MET.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
A BRIEF WARMING TREND AT THE START OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD
BRINGS TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY, THE FOCUS TURNS TO
AN INITIAL DEEP TROUGH THAT DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA, BRINGING
A RETURN TO MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS THE THREAT FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AT THIS JUNCTURE, MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS
MEAGER, SO ONLY VERY LIGHT QPF IS EXPECTED. STILL, WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES SPILLING INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SOME OVERLAP
IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR. AS
SUCH, A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IS
ADVERTISED DURING THIS TIME FRAME FOR PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA. STILL,
LITTLE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF LIGHT ACCUMULATION (~1") LIMITED TO THE
TYPICAL HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NORTH GEORGIA WHICH WOULD BE EXPECTED
FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW EVENT OF THIS NATURE. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA AMID STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE 30S.
MODEL GUIDANCE THEN DIVERGES SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS THEY STRUGGLE TO HANDLE THE TIMING AND PHASING OF THE
NEXT DEEP TROUGH. AS SUCH, WE CONTINUE TO RELY LARGELY ON ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE AND PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME AS OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO WAFFLE (INCLUDING THE ONGOING OUTLIER GFS). GIVEN
CONTINUED RELIANCE ON THE MEAN, THE FORECAST TILTS TOWARD THE DRIER
SIDE OF THINGS BY THE TIME THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ULTIMATELY,
IT'LL STILL BE A FEW DAYS BEFORE CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THIS TIME
FRAME, SO STAY TUNED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026
PREVAILING VFR AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLACKEN OVERNIGHT BECOMING MORE VRB IN NATURE BY
15-17Z MONDAY. WAVES OF HIGH CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN
FROM THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO WX/CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
07
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 30 59 37 56 / 0 0 0 10
ATLANTA 32 57 39 55 / 0 0 0 20
BLAIRSVILLE 26 57 31 50 / 0 0 0 40
CARTERSVILLE 26 56 35 55 / 0 0 0 30
COLUMBUS 29 58 37 57 / 0 0 10 20
GAINESVILLE 32 56 39 54 / 0 0 0 20
MACON 27 60 37 58 / 0 0 10 20
ROME 29 60 38 58 / 0 0 0 40
PEACHTREE CITY 27 58 36 56 / 0 0 10 20
VIDALIA 30 61 39 59 / 0 0 0 20
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KING
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...07
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