273
FXUS62 KFFC 121735
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1235 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
..NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1230 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
- INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY IN
PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA.
- MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
- A RETURN OF COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY AND NOTABLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. HIGH CIRRUS FILTERING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAY PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY TANKING BUT IT WILL
FEEL QUITE CHILLY OUT THERE THIS MORNING. MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S IN NORTH GA TO MID 30S ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL
GA. THIS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE THING TO MONITOR TODAY,
MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL GA, AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION. YESTERDAY 10-HR FUELS DRIED TO AROUND 8-9%
IN EAST-CENTRAL GA AND ANTICIPATE FURTHER DRYING OF FUELS TODAY
DESPITE THE HIGH CIRRUS THAT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS (< 25%) THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY (THOUGH LIKELY TO A GREATER EXTENT).
LIGHT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE OUR SAVING GRACE BOTH DAYS BUT A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY
FUELS IN EAST-CENTRAL GA.
CLOUD COVER CLEARS OUT TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL ELONGATE AND GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY BUT DRY
WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED. A BRIEF 'WARM UP' WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY
(LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) WITH FORECAST HIGHS RISING INTO THE 50S
AREAWIDE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE FIRE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE A CONCERN
DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL GA DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026
TROUGHING DOMINATES TO CONCLUDE THE WEEK:
LONG WAVE TROUGHING SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW TWO STRONG
SHORTWAVES TO SINK SOUTHWARDS FROM CANADA. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT GEORGIA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WHILE THE SECOND
WILL ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF BOTH FEATURES FOR SEVERAL RUNS,
SUGGESTING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING. PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
AMOUNTS WITH BOTH FEATURES LOOK LESS CERTAIN, THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN
A COUPLE OF CLEAR TRENDS IN THE LAST COUPLE OF ENSEMBLE RUNS. THE
MOST EVIDENT IS THE SHIFT TOWARDS LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR BOTH
SYSTEMS (PW VALUES STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE 0.60 INCHES) PROGGED BY
BOTH THE GEFS AND EPS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SOAKING RAINFALL, LIKE WE
SAW IN NORTH GEORGIA WITH THE LAST STORM SYSTEM, IS VERY UNLIKELY.
FOR THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY SYSTEM, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH IN ADVANCE OF THE COLDER AIR. HOWEVER WITH THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH POTENTIALLY PARKING OVER THE LOWER APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BECOME A CONCERN IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND UPSLOPE FLOW WOULD BE THE MAIN
DRIVERS OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD IT OCCUR. THE AFOREMENTIONED DEARTH
OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIMITED. A
SIMILAR SITUATION LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP FOR THE WEEKEND, THOUGH THE
TREND TOWARDS FALLING PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAS BEEN STRONGER. THIS
TREND CAN BE SEEN IN THE DECREASED NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
INDICATING PRECIPITATION IN NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE FIRST TROUGH THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND SHOULD
LOW CONFIDENCE AND IN FLUX UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THIS WEEK WILL BE DICTATED BY THE TWO TROUGHS AND
THE CANADIAN AIRMASSES THEY DRAG SOUTH. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO 5 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ON THURSDAY. THE BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW COLD IT
WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS IN FLUX, WITH THE 25TH TO 75TH
PERCENTILES OF THE GEFS AND EPS GUIDANCE STILL HAVING 10 TO 15
DEGREES OF SPREAD. IF THINGS DO TREND IN A COLDER DIRECTION, THEN
SOME LIMITED WIND CHILL CONCERNS COULD DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SCATTERED
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY W TO NW AT 3-5 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHTER AND VARIABLE AT TIMES THIS
EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
KING
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 50 29 59 37 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 49 32 57 39 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 48 26 56 31 / 0 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 49 26 56 35 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 51 29 58 37 / 0 0 0 10
GAINESVILLE 49 32 56 38 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 52 28 60 37 / 0 0 0 10
ROME 53 29 60 38 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 50 27 58 36 / 0 0 0 10
VIDALIA 52 31 61 38 / 0 0 0 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....ALBRIGHT
AVIATION...KING
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