737
FXUS62 KFFC 121917
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
217 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 208 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
- INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY IN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.
- AFTER A BRIEF WARMUP, A REINFORCED COLDER AIRMASS ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, THOUGH POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS
CURRENTLY LOOK QUITE LIMITED IN BOTH AREA AND AMOUNTS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO DAILY NORMALS, LARGELY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA TO THE MID 50S IN EAST-
CENTRAL GEORGIA. HIGH CIRRUS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 20-25% IN EAST-CENTRAL
GEORGIA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS YESTERDAY
ALLOWED FINER FUELS TO DRY OUT IN THIS AREA AND MORE DRYING IS
EXPECTED IN SPITE OF THE CIRRUS DECK AND LIGHT WINDS CLOSER TO THE
HIGH. BECAUSE OF THESE FACTORS, A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN
EFFECT FOR OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL 7 PM EST.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR ON TUESDAY, THOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LINGERING, WEAKENING SURFACE
HIGH. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY, RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. DRY
FUELS AND MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 20-25% IN CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL
LIKELY WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF ANOTHER FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
TOMORROW. TUESDAY NIGHT, LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY AND DIG
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST.
THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE
REGION, WITH INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO FOLLOW. THE
EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO INFLUENCE THE
MOVEMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF, WHICH WILL
BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
DEEP TROUGHING WILL BE SINKING INTO THE EASTERN U.S AT THE START OF
THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE FIRST OF A COUPLE OF STRONG
SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY, BRINGING WITH IT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO PRIMARILY
NORTH GEORGIA. THE ONGOING DRIER TREND HAS CONTINUED WITHIN RECENT
ENSEMBLE OUTPUT DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WITH QPF LARGELY UNDER A
TENTH OF AN INCH EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. ADDITIONALLY, THE
BULK OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF MOST
PRECIPITATION, LEAVING A LIMITED WINDOW FOR OVERLAP. STILL,
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH
GEORGIA MOUNTAINS WITHIN THE REGION OF ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW. EVEN
IN THESE SPOTS, ANY POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIMITED WITH
PROBABILITIES FOR MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH
WITH NEWER GUIDANCE. CURRENTLY, PROBABILITIES FOR EVEN 0.5" OF SNOW
ARE LARGELY NIL OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH
GEORGIA MOUNTAINS WHERE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF THIS CALIBER REMAIN
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME ISOLATED BLACK
ICE POTENTIAL AS THE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FILTER IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH THE SAVING GRACE FROM WIDESPREAD CONCERNS
WILL BE THE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS
THAT SHOULD HELP DRY MOST ROADWAYS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ASSURED IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
WITH THURSDAY BRINGING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S IN NORTH GEORGIA TO
40S FARTHER SOUTH, SOME 15+ DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND CAN BE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THOUGH A
SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES ONGOING
UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IN ANY
WEEKEND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ALSO REMAINS QUITE LOW WITH A
GENERALLY DRIER TREND ALSO REMAINING EVIDENT WITH NEWEST
MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY OVERLAP IN
PRECIPITATION AND COLDER TEMPERATURES IN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECOND
TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN IN FOCUS OVER THE COMING DAYS,
BUT AT THIS JUNCTURE CONFIDENCE IN ANY SPECIFIC SCENARIO REMAINS
LOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SCATTERED
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY W TO NW AT 3-5 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHTER AND VARIABLE AT TIMES THIS
EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
KING
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 30 58 38 58 / 0 0 0 10
ATLANTA 33 57 41 56 / 0 0 0 20
BLAIRSVILLE 27 56 32 50 / 0 0 0 30
CARTERSVILLE 26 56 36 55 / 0 0 0 30
COLUMBUS 30 59 39 58 / 0 0 10 10
GAINESVILLE 33 56 39 55 / 0 0 0 20
MACON 29 60 38 59 / 0 0 10 20
ROME 30 60 40 58 / 0 0 0 40
PEACHTREE CITY 27 58 37 57 / 0 0 10 20
VIDALIA 32 61 39 59 / 0 0 10 20
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KING
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...KING
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