003
FXUS62 KFFC 130726
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
226 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 222 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
- INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.
- RAIN RETURNS FOR SOME ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS STILL BEING A POSSIBILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN LIMITED.
- A BRIEF WARM UP TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COLDER AIR RETURNING THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE AT THE SURFACE. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WE START OFF CHILLY WITH
CURRENT TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING. THOUGH UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
AREAWIDE. INCREASED FIRE DANGER WILL BE OUR CONCERN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA DUE TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LOWERING BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS (< 25%). 10HR FUELS DID DRY OUT
YESTERDAY BUT NOT AS MUCH AS INITIALLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, FURTHER
DRYING IS EXPECTED TODAY AND A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
SW FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TONIGHT SO TEMPERATURES WONT DIP QUITE AS LOW
AS PREVIOUS DAYS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN HIGH TO MIDLEVEL CLOUD COVER.
MORNING LOWS ON WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
(5-7 DEG COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS). WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY DAYTIME TEMPERATURES PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH
ARE LIKELY TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY. THE FIRST OF
TWO SHORTWAVES WILL SWING ACROSS THE GULF COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
USHERING SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH
THE MORNING. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
AND TN VALLEY BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS OF NORTH GA
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AIR AND GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE FREEZING DURING THIS TIME SO A COLD RAIN IS ALL THAT IS
EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING IS DISCUSSED IN THE
LONG TERM BELOW...
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
SNOW POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT & THURSDAY MORNING:
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. PEAK PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.70 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL ENSURE THAT ANY PRECIPITATION IS VERY
LIMITED. THIS MAKES THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFLAKES IN NORTH GEORGIA THE
MOST INTERESTING ASPECT OF THE FORECAST. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FT
MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING, BUT SNOWFALL AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL NEED THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR THAT MOVES IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THIS PUSH OF
COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAPID DRYING IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THUS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (-10 TO
-20 DEGREES C) SHOULD RAPIDLY DESATURATED OVERNIGHT, PREVENTING
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. DESPITE THIS SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES MAY STILL OCCUR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING INSTABILITY IN A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER
BELOW 800 MB. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (LESS THAN AN INCH) ARE
POSSIBLE ON ELEVATED SURFACES. HOWEVER IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATIONS ON
ROAD SURFACES OR SIDEWALKS APPEAR UNLIKELY DO TO LOW SNOW RATES AND
ABOVE FREEZING GROUND TEMPERATURES.
HAZARDOUS COLD POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING:
THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS SHOULD DRIVE WIND CHILLS
DOWN INTO THE TEEN ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. THIS
MAY PUT SOME AREAS WITHING A DEGREE OR TWO OF COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH ABOUT A 20% CHANCE OF CRITERIA BEING MEET. THOUGH WE
MAY NOT MEET CRITERIA, THURSDAY MORNING WILL STILL BE ONE OF THE
COLDEST MORNINGS OF THE WINTER SO FAR.
THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM:
THOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS (GFS AND ECMWF) HAVE CONTINUED TO
PRODUCE THE OCCASIONAL OUTLIER RUN OVER THE LAST 72 HOURS,
SIGNIFICANT WINTRY IMPACTS OVER THE WEEKEND REMAIN IMPROBABLE. THIS
IS BECAUSE GUIDANCE FROM THE ENSEMBLES (GEFS AND EPS) HAS SHOW A
REGULAR SIGNAL IN FAVOR NO SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVORS A SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND THAT IS MOISTURE
STARVED (ENSEMBLE MEAN PW VALUES BELOW 0.40 IN), WITH THE COLDEST
AIR BEING OUT OF PHASE WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN THESE TRENDS HOLDING IS MODERATE.
THE MOST PROBABLE HAZARD WITH THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE
COLD. CONFIDENCE IN A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING THE REGION IS VERY HIGH,
AND BY MONDAY MORNING WE MAY AGAIN APPROACH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA (40% CHANCE). THE CURRENT SPREAD IN THE GEFS AND EPS
TEMPERATURE FORECAST (BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES) IS
CURRENTLY HOVERING NEAR 10 DEGREES. THIS SHOULD SHRINK AS THE
MIDWEEK SYSTEM ARRIVES AND AS THIS OCCURS THE ODDS OF A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY ON MONDAY MAY INCREASE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
PREVAILING VFR AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE BACK
IN AFTER 03-06Z WEDNESDAY. VRB TO NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
PICK UP FROM THE WSW/W ON TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE 7KTS OR LESS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
07
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 60 38 57 30 / 0 0 10 10
ATLANTA 57 40 57 28 / 0 0 20 20
BLAIRSVILLE 56 32 51 19 / 0 0 40 30
CARTERSVILLE 57 36 55 26 / 0 0 30 20
COLUMBUS 59 38 59 32 / 0 10 20 30
GAINESVILLE 56 38 55 29 / 0 0 20 20
MACON 60 37 58 34 / 0 10 20 20
ROME 61 39 58 27 / 0 0 40 20
PEACHTREE CITY 58 36 57 28 / 0 0 20 30
VIDALIA 61 38 58 38 / 0 10 30 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....ALBRIGHT
AVIATION...07
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