867
FXUS62 KFFC 140527
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1227 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1221 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7 PM
TODAY AND 7 AM THURSDAY.
- SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FROM ANY
MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.
- BITING WIND CHILLS (0 TO 15 DEGREES) ARE EXPECTED IN NORTH
GEORGIA THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
SNOW POTENTIAL TONIGHT & THURSDAY MORNING:
A STRONG TROUGH DIVING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
GEORGIA ON TODAY. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD GENERATE SOME
LIGHT RAINFALL IN CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING, WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. SINCE ANY RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT, 0.15 INCHES OR
LESS, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFLAKES IN THE
MOUNTAINS. ANY FLAKES BEFORE 7 PM SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS (ABOVE 3000 FT AGL). SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL QUICKLY BETWEEN 7 PM AND 1 AM AS STRONG CAA TAKES HOLD. BY 1 AM
IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT ELEVATIONS BELOW 1000 FT. THIS
SAME PERIOD OF TIME SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAPID DRYING ABOVE 850
MB THAT WILL DEPLETE THE DENDRITIC ZONE OF MOISTURE AND GREATLY
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL SNOW RATES. THUS ANY SNOWFALL
AFTER 1 AM WILL BE DEPENDENT ON A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE BETWEEN
950 AND 800 MB AND UPSLOPE FLOW. ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AFTER 1 AM
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO WEST FACING SLOPES, WITH ONLY A FEW FLURRIES
OCCURRING ELSEWHERE. GROUND AND ROAD TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE
FREEZING IN MOST AREAS BEFORE 1 AM, AND THIS MAY HINDER
ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST POSSIBLE SNOW
RATES. TOTALS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS EVENT MAY APPROACH AN INCH
ON THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS, WHILE ACCUMULATIONS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED (NOTHING TO HALF AN INCH ON THE ROADWAYS IN
MOST AREAS).
COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING:
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S WILL PUSH
WIND CHILLS INTO THE TEENS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THURSDAY MORNING.
SOME AREAS COME WITH IN A DEGREE OR TWO OF COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA (~10F). THERE IS A 40% CHANCE THAT WE WILL NEED TO ISSUE A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY LATER TODAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM & COLD TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK:
TRENDS IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE GEFS AND EPS MEMBERS SUPPORT A
DRY FORECAST, WITH COLD AIR SURGING IN AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK. AS
WE HAVE SEEN WITH THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS THERE ARE A FEW
OUTLIERS THAT PRODUCE APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL, BUT THEIR COHORT
ACCOUNTS FOR LESS THAN 10% OF THE AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. AS
SUCH THE ODDS OF IMPACTFUL WINTRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND REMAIN VERY
LOW.
IF ANY WINTRY WEATHER DOES GET GOING THIS WEEKEND, IT WOULD MOST
LIKELY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AS A NARROW BAND OF
MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE PROGGED INTENSITY OF THIS
BAND (PW VALUES 0.5 TO 0.7) HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND THUS WE HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (15-30%) FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. A DUSTING OF
MOUNTAIN SNOW CAN'T BE RULED OUT DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING, TRACK OR STRENGTH OF ANY
OF THESE FEATURES REMAINS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME, AND THUS OUR
FORECAST REMAINS DRY.
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY COLDER OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. THUS WE NOW ANTICIPATE MORNING WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ON
SUNDAY TO GO ALONG THE WITH SIMILAR READINGS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS. THE ODDS OF MEETING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA ON ANY
OF THESE DAYS REMAIN MODEST (25%).
LINGERING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS:
REPEATED PUSHES OF DRY CONTINENTAL AIR FROM CANADA LATE THIS WEEK
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LOW IN OUR
REGION. DUE TO THIS ADDITIONAL FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED. THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SUNDAY, MONDAY AND TUESDAY COULD ALL SEE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 25%, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL
GEORGIA. THE TWO POSITIVES ON THE FIRE SIDE ARE THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL, AND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 MPH. THUS RED
FLAG WARNINGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY) MORNING.
EXPECTING CIGS TO DROP GRADUALLY FROM TOMORROW MORNING THRU
MIDDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR BY ~17Z TO ~19Z. THE QUESTION AFTER
THAT POINT IS HOW WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS BECOME, ESPECIALLY AS A
FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH GEORGIA AND BRINGS -SHRA AND REDUCED VIS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.
FOR MCN AND CSG, ON THE OTHER HAND, THE MORNING HOURS (~11Z TO
~16Z) WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR -SHRA. -SHRA COULD POTENTIALLY
BE OBSERVED AT ATL AND FTY IN THE MORNING, SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH.
THE LATER-DAY -SHRA ARE COVERED BY PROB30S FOR THE NORTHERN SITES.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF -SHRA AND CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR OR
LOWER. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
MARTIN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 29 41 20 48 / 30 0 0 0
ATLANTA 27 38 23 48 / 40 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 18 31 13 43 / 40 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 25 38 18 49 / 40 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 31 44 22 52 / 40 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 27 37 21 46 / 40 0 0 0
MACON 32 45 21 51 / 30 0 0 0
ROME 26 41 22 52 / 40 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 26 40 18 50 / 50 0 0 0
VIDALIA 37 48 23 51 / 20 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ALBRIGHT
LONG TERM....ALBRIGHT
AVIATION...MARTIN
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