103
FXUS62 KFFC 271925
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
225 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 223 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
- COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA THROUGH THURSDAY.
- PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW REGARDING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
POSSIBLY BRINGING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS COLD AND DRY DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY). HIGH CIRRUS WILL
FILL BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING INCREASING IN
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS. THUS, MORNING TEMPERATURES WONT BE QUITE AS FRIGID AS
THEY WERE THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 20S AREAWIDE (TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS). SKIES WILL CLEAR
BY MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE THE 40S
TO LOW 50S (5-10 DEGREES COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS).
THE ONLY THING TO REALLY MAKE NOTE OF OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS,
SPECIFICALLY FOR OUR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS, WILL BE LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY EACH AFTERNOON AND POTENTIALLY REACHING CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. PER LATEST AFTERNOON OBS, AREAS SOUTH OF ATHENS AND EAST
OF MACON ARE SEEING RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN 25-30%. THESE VALUES
MAY BRIEFLY DIP BELOW 25% BUT THANKFULLY LIGHTER WINDS AND ELEVATED
FUEL MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY NOTABLE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
ALRIGHT FOLKS, WE HAVE ONCE AGAIN ENTERED THE REALM OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH MODELS IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. OVERALL, THE LONG TERM
OUTLOOK STARTS OFF QUIESCENT WITH COOL TO COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE MORNING AND 40S TO NEAR 50 FOR THE HIGH.
NOW, FOR THE PART EVERYONE WANTS TO KNOW ABOUT. CONDITIONS THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE AT THE MERCY OF SEVERAL FACTORS WHICH HAVE INCREASED
UNCERTAINTY. NOT SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN "WILL IT BE SNOW OR RAIN?",
BUT "WILL THERE BE PRECIPITATION OR NOT?". AT THIS TIME, ANY
PRECIPITATION (EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
GEORGIA) WILL LIKELY COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH LIMITED TO NO
TRANSITION PERIOD. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY
EVENING WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND FL/GA/SC
COASTS. THE POSITION OF THE LOW WILL BE EXCEEDINGLY IMPORTANT WHEN
IT COMES TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOOKING AT
CLUSTER GUIDANCE OF THE LREF, BOTH THE GEPS AND ENS MEMBERS LEAN
TOWARDS A FASTER AND MORE WESTERLY DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW
WHICH BRINGS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE CLUSTERS STANDS ABOUT 70% OF THE
GEFS MEMBERS, MAKING IT THE OUTLIER. THESE CLUSTERS DEVELOP THE LOW
MUCH FURTHER EAST, LIMITING MOISTURE TRANSPORT WESTWARD AND SYNOPTIC
FORCING. THIS WOULD BE THE DRIER SCENARIO.
SO WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR US? WELL, SHOULD WE GET PRECIPITATION,
ANY MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED (REDUCED TOTAL QPF).
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW (LIQUID-TO-SNOW RATIOS OF
15:1 ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION), AND ROADS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
FROZEN PRECIP TO STICK. TOTAL EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS CURRENTLY RANGE
FROM A DUSTING TO 2" FOR THE 1-3 MOST EASTERLY ROW OF COUNTIES
(ASIDE FROM TOOMBS AT THIS TIME :( ). THE BIG CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE
THE WESTWARD MOISTURE CONVEYOR BELT AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
LOW. THE FURTHER WEST AND STRONGER THE LOW DEVELOPMENT THE GREATER
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WE COULD SEE. THIS COULD ALSO BE EXACERBATED
BY ANY DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA WHICH COULD ALSO ASSIST IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT/EFFICIENCY.
THE HIGH END SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN A MUCH FURTHER WESTWARD
FOOTPRINT OF STICKING SNOW RATHER THAN A PURE INCREASE IN TOTAL
AMOUNTS. NBM PROBS OF 1" OF SNOW FOR THE EASTERN METRO CURRENTLY
SITS AT 20%. THIS INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY TO 40% FOR THE CLUSTER
CONSISTING OF (GEFS: 27%, ENS: 30%, GEPS: 35%, T: 33%). THIS CLUSTER
BRINGS IN THE COLD AIR QUICKLY ON FRIDAY EVENING, WHICH IS
BELIEVABLE GIVEN POTENTIAL SNOW PACK ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS
(AS WE KNOW MODELS STRUGGLE TO HANDLE THIS IF IT DEVIATES FROM
CLIMATE SIGNIFICANTLY... WHICH IT DOES).
ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING,
THOUGH THE COLD WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
LOWS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS TO LOW 20S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
VFR AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED. WNW TO NW WINDS 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 22KTS POSSIBLE
THROUGH 00Z AFTER WHICH WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-8KTS OVERNIGHT. NW
WINDS PICK UP TO 7-10KTS AS EARLY AS 15Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH CIRRUS
INCREASES IN COVERAGE AFTER 02Z AND EVENTUALLY SCATTERING AFTER
15Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
07
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 27 46 24 45 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 27 45 26 44 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 18 40 18 42 / 0 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 23 45 21 44 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 27 50 26 51 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 28 45 26 44 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 27 51 25 51 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 25 48 24 49 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 25 48 23 47 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 30 53 29 53 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...07
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