452
FXUS62 KFFC 280557 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1257 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1240 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
- COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA THROUGH THURSDAY.
- PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW REGARDING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
POSSIBLY BRINGING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS COLD AND DRY DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY). HIGH CIRRUS
WILL FILL BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING INCREASING IN
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS. THUS, MORNING TEMPERATURES WONT BE QUITE AS FRIGID AS
THEY WERE THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 20S AREAWIDE (TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS). SKIES
WILL CLEAR BY MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
THE THE 40S TO LOW 50S (5-10 DEGREES COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS).
THE ONLY THING TO REALLY MAKE NOTE OF OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS,
SPECIFICALLY FOR OUR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS, WILL BE LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY EACH AFTERNOON AND POTENTIALLY REACHING CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. PER LATEST AFTERNOON OBS, AREAS SOUTH OF ATHENS AND
EAST OF MACON ARE SEEING RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN 25-30%. THESE
VALUES MAY BRIEFLY DIP BELOW 25% BUT THANKFULLY LIGHTER WINDS AND
ELEVATED FUEL MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY NOTABLE FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
ALRIGHT FOLKS, WE HAVE ONCE AGAIN ENTERED THE REALM OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH MODELS IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. OVERALL, THE
LONG TERM OUTLOOK STARTS OFF QUIESCENT WITH COOL TO COLD
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE MORNING AND 40S TO
NEAR 50 FOR THE HIGH.
NOW, FOR THE PART EVERYONE WANTS TO KNOW ABOUT. CONDITIONS THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE AT THE MERCY OF SEVERAL FACTORS WHICH HAVE
INCREASED UNCERTAINTY. NOT SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN "WILL IT BE SNOW
OR RAIN?", BUT "WILL THERE BE PRECIPITATION OR NOT?". AT THIS
TIME, ANY PRECIPITATION (EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD IN SOUTH-
CENTRAL GEORGIA) WILL LIKELY COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH LIMITED
TO NO TRANSITION PERIOD. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING
FRIDAY EVENING WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
FL/GA/SC COASTS. THE POSITION OF THE LOW WILL BE EXCEEDINGLY
IMPORTANT WHEN IT COMES TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOOKING AT CLUSTER GUIDANCE OF THE LREF, BOTH THE GEPS
AND ENS MEMBERS LEAN TOWARDS A FASTER AND MORE WESTERLY
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH BRINGS MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
CLUSTERS STANDS ABOUT 70% OF THE GEFS MEMBERS, MAKING IT THE
OUTLIER. THESE CLUSTERS DEVELOP THE LOW MUCH FURTHER EAST,
LIMITING MOISTURE TRANSPORT WESTWARD AND SYNOPTIC FORCING. THIS
WOULD BE THE DRIER SCENARIO.
SO WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR US? WELL, SHOULD WE GET PRECIPITATION,
ANY MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED (REDUCED TOTAL QPF).
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW (LIQUID-TO-SNOW RATIOS
OF 15:1 ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION), AND ROADS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR FROZEN PRECIP TO STICK. TOTAL EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 2" FOR THE 1-3 MOST EASTERLY ROW
OF COUNTIES (ASIDE FROM TOOMBS AT THIS TIME :( ). THE BIG CAVEAT
TO THIS WILL BE THE WESTWARD MOISTURE CONVEYOR BELT AROUND THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE FURTHER WEST AND STRONGER THE LOW
DEVELOPMENT THE GREATER THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WE COULD SEE. THIS
COULD ALSO BE EXACERBATED BY ANY DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WHICH COULD ALSO ASSIST
IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT/EFFICIENCY. THE HIGH END SOLUTION WOULD
RESULT IN A MUCH FURTHER WESTWARD FOOTPRINT OF STICKING SNOW
RATHER THAN A PURE INCREASE IN TOTAL AMOUNTS. NBM PROBS OF 1" OF
SNOW FOR THE EASTERN METRO CURRENTLY SITS AT 20%. THIS INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY TO 40% FOR THE CLUSTER CONSISTING OF (GEFS: 27%,
ENS: 30%, GEPS: 35%, T: 33%). THIS CLUSTER BRINGS IN THE COLD AIR
QUICKLY ON FRIDAY EVENING, WHICH IS BELIEVABLE GIVEN POTENTIAL
SNOW PACK ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS (AS WE KNOW MODELS STRUGGLE
TO HANDLE THIS IF IT DEVIATES FROM CLIMATE SIGNIFICANTLY... WHICH
IT DOES).
ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING,
THOUGH THE COLD WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
LOWS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS TO LOW 20S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENT 20-25
KFT CLOUD DECK WILL CLEAR THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON, MAKING FOR SKC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WNW
TO NW WINDS WILL BE 5-10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO ~20 KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
MARTIN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 24 45 25 47 / 0 0 0 10
ATLANTA 26 44 28 45 / 0 0 0 20
BLAIRSVILLE 18 42 21 42 / 0 0 0 10
CARTERSVILLE 21 44 24 44 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 26 51 30 50 / 0 0 0 20
GAINESVILLE 26 44 27 44 / 0 0 0 10
MACON 25 51 27 52 / 0 0 0 20
ROME 24 49 26 45 / 0 0 0 10
PEACHTREE CITY 23 47 25 47 / 0 0 0 20
VIDALIA 29 53 31 56 / 0 0 0 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...MARTIN
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