219
FXUS62 KFFC 281943
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
243 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 234 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
- COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA THROUGH THURSDAY.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL
FOR PORTIONS OF NE AND E CENTRAL GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.
- WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS WEEKEND AND WINDS MAY GUST OVER 30MPH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. A SECONDARY PUSH OF DRY, CONTINENTAL AIR HAS NUDGED
DEWPOINTS INTO THE TEENS ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON -- AT LEAST FOR NOW, MINIMUM VALUES OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS (25%)
FOR MORE THAN PERHAPS AN HOUR OR TWO, AND WILL BE PATCHY IN NATURE.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL NECESSITY OF A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WHEN CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR
AIRMASS-WISE, AND FINE FUELS WILL HAVE HAD MORE TIME TO "RECOVER"
FROM THIS WEEKEND'S RAIN/WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BEGINNING TOMORROW MORNING AS
MOISTURE IMPROVES ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, OTHERWISE
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A NEAR CARBON-COPY OF TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 40S TO MID-50S THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING INTO
THE 20S (AND TEENS ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA).
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS EXCEPTIONALLY TRICKY FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR WILL RAPIDLY MOVE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN ARCTIC HIGH DESCENDS OUT OF THE NORTH. THIS WILL
SQUEEZE AN UPPER LEVEL, POSITIVELY TILTED, TROUGH AT THE SAME TIME
THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OFF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS ARE
SURPRISINGLY CONSISTENT ON THE INTERPLAY BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE
SHORTWAVE. THE PROBLEM COMES FROM THE INCREDIBLY SENSITIVE SURFACE
CONDITIONS THAT MAY RESULT. TINY ADJUSTMENTS IN THE RESULTANT
LOCATION OF THE 700MB LOW WILL BE THE DECIDING FACTOR FOR WHAT, IF
ANY, LOCATIONS RECEIVE SNOWFALL IN NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE WEST OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS WHICH
INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND
EXPANDS POTENTIAL SNOWFALL WESTWARD AS WELL. THE UNCERTAINTY REALLY
PLAYS OUT FOR THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE STATE.
OUR MAJOR STICKING POINTS FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE THE INITIATION OF
PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW. SEVERAL MODEL MEMBERS, THOSE WHICH ARE TRENDING SLOWER,
BRING MORE MOISTURE IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND GENERALLY LEAD TO A
WETTER FIRST HALF. THE MODELS WHICH MOVE QUICKER END UP DEVELOPING A
STRONGER LOW WHICH CREATES A MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM LEADING TO BACK-END
SNOW POTENTIAL AS THE MAIN HAZARD (THOUGH THE INITIAL PUSH MAY
TRIGGER SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED FLURRIES
ELSEWHERE). AT THIS POINT, GIVEN THE SNOW COVERAGE ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY, THE COLDER AND FASTER SOLUTION SEEMS TO HAVE THE SLIGHT EDGE
IN THIS SITUATION. THE RESULT FROM THIS WOULD BE A QUICKER PUSH OF
COLD AIR AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD, STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS WILL DRIVE WIND GUSTS >30MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
COMBINING THIS WITH THE 20:1 SNOW RATIOS AND WE COULD SEE SOME
"SURPRISE" SNOWBANDS WITH ISOLATED ACCUMULATIONS EVEN IN THE DRY
SLOT.
AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 1" OF SNOW IN THE ATL METRO
SITS BETWEEN 10 AND 40% WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES NORTH AND EAST.
THIS IS LIKELY AN ATTEMPT TO REPRESENT THE PATCHY COVERAGE WITH MOST
AREAS GETTING LITTLE TO NOTHING AND A LUCKY FEW RECEIVING A GOOD
QUICK SNOW.
TEMPERATURES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE FRIGID AND
WINDCHILLS COULD DROP BELOW ZERO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES MAY
NOT EEK PAST FREEZING UNTIL MONDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY, AND NO FURTHER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
VFR CONDS TO CONTINUE WITH PRIMARILY SKC THRU TONIGHT, AND SCT TO
BKN CIGS AT 20-25KFT BEGINNING TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE NW AT 8 TO 12 KTS (WITH LOW-END GUSTS TO 20KTS PSBL
THIS AFTN) SLACKENING TO 5-8KTS AFTER 23Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 25 46 25 45 / 0 0 0 20
ATLANTA 26 45 29 45 / 0 0 0 20
BLAIRSVILLE 18 41 22 42 / 0 0 0 20
CARTERSVILLE 20 44 24 45 / 0 0 0 20
COLUMBUS 26 52 31 53 / 0 0 0 30
GAINESVILLE 26 44 27 43 / 0 0 0 20
MACON 25 52 28 53 / 0 0 0 20
ROME 23 48 27 50 / 0 0 0 20
PEACHTREE CITY 23 48 26 48 / 0 0 0 20
VIDALIA 29 54 31 59 / 0 0 0 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...96
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