843
FXUS62 KFFC 290628 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
128 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 118 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
- COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA THROUGH THURSDAY.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL
FOR PORTIONS OF NE AND E CENTRAL GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.
- WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS WEEKEND AND WINDS MAY GUST OVER 30MPH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. A SECONDARY PUSH OF DRY, CONTINENTAL AIR HAS NUDGED
DEWPOINTS INTO THE TEENS ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON -- AT LEAST FOR NOW, MINIMUM VALUES OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS (25%)
FOR MORE THAN PERHAPS AN HOUR OR TWO, AND WILL BE PATCHY IN
NATURE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL NECESSITY OF A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WHEN CONDITIONS WILL BE
SIMILAR AIRMASS-WISE, AND FINE FUELS WILL HAVE HAD MORE TIME TO
"RECOVER" FROM THIS WEEKEND'S RAIN/WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BEGINNING TOMORROW MORNING
AS MOISTURE IMPROVES ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE,
OTHERWISE THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A NEAR CARBON-COPY OF TODAY. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID-50S THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH LOWS TONIGHT
DROPPING INTO THE 20S (AND TEENS ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA).
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS EXCEPTIONALLY TRICKY FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR WILL RAPIDLY MOVE INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN ARCTIC HIGH DESCENDS OUT OF THE NORTH.
THIS WILL SQUEEZE AN UPPER LEVEL, POSITIVELY TILTED, TROUGH AT THE
SAME TIME THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OFF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
MODELS ARE SURPRISINGLY CONSISTENT ON THE INTERPLAY BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND THE SHORTWAVE. THE PROBLEM COMES FROM THE INCREDIBLY
SENSITIVE SURFACE CONDITIONS THAT MAY RESULT. TINY ADJUSTMENTS IN
THE RESULTANT LOCATION OF THE 700MB LOW WILL BE THE DECIDING
FACTOR FOR WHAT, IF ANY, LOCATIONS RECEIVE SNOWFALL IN NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE WEST OVER THE
LAST FEW MODEL RUNS WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL ACROSS
OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND EXPANDS POTENTIAL SNOWFALL WESTWARD AS
WELL. THE UNCERTAINTY REALLY PLAYS OUT FOR THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF
THE STATE.
OUR MAJOR STICKING POINTS FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE THE INITIATION
OF PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SURFACE LOW. SEVERAL MODEL MEMBERS, THOSE WHICH ARE TRENDING
SLOWER, BRING MORE MOISTURE IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND GENERALLY
LEAD TO A WETTER FIRST HALF. THE MODELS WHICH MOVE QUICKER END UP
DEVELOPING A STRONGER LOW WHICH CREATES A MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM
LEADING TO BACK-END SNOW POTENTIAL AS THE MAIN HAZARD (THOUGH THE
INITIAL PUSH MAY TRIGGER SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
ISOLATED FLURRIES ELSEWHERE). AT THIS POINT, GIVEN THE SNOW
COVERAGE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY, THE COLDER AND FASTER SOLUTION
SEEMS TO HAVE THE SLIGHT EDGE IN THIS SITUATION. THE RESULT FROM
THIS WOULD BE A QUICKER PUSH OF COLD AIR AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA
AND WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD, STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
WILL DRIVE WIND GUSTS >30MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. COMBINING THIS
WITH THE 20:1 SNOW RATIOS AND WE COULD SEE SOME "SURPRISE"
SNOWBANDS WITH ISOLATED ACCUMULATIONS EVEN IN THE DRY SLOT.
AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 1" OF SNOW IN THE ATL
METRO SITS BETWEEN 10 AND 40% WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES NORTH AND
EAST. THIS IS LIKELY AN ATTEMPT TO REPRESENT THE PATCHY COVERAGE
WITH MOST AREAS GETTING LITTLE TO NOTHING AND A LUCKY FEW
RECEIVING A GOOD QUICK SNOW.
TEMPERATURES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE FRIGID AND
WINDCHILLS COULD DROP BELOW ZERO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES MAY
NOT EEK PAST FREEZING UNTIL MONDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY, AND NO FURTHER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 118 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH BKN
CIRRUS AT 20-25 KFT BEGINNING THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 3-7
KTS THROUGH TODAY, WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
MARTIN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 46 25 46 27 / 0 0 20 30
ATLANTA 44 29 45 25 / 0 0 20 20
BLAIRSVILLE 41 22 42 18 / 0 0 20 40
CARTERSVILLE 44 23 46 22 / 0 0 20 20
COLUMBUS 52 31 53 27 / 0 0 30 10
GAINESVILLE 44 27 43 26 / 0 0 10 30
MACON 52 28 54 30 / 0 0 20 20
ROME 47 26 48 23 / 0 0 10 10
PEACHTREE CITY 47 25 48 25 / 0 0 20 20
VIDALIA 54 31 59 35 / 0 0 10 20
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...MARTIN
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