195
FXUS62 KFFC 291732
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1232 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
..NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1224 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA BETWEEN FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT, PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER
STORM WATCH.
- ACROSS THE WINTER STORM WATCH AREA, TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
UP TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SLIPPERY
ROAD CONDITIONS.
- WHILE CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WEST OF THE WINTER
STORM WATCH AREA REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW, DANGEROUS WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
THIS WEEKEND AND WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES AND/OR EXTREME COLD WATCHES/WARNINGS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
TODAY (THURSDAY) WILL BE OUR LAST DRY DAY BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) THIS WEEKEND.
CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST ACROSS GEORGIA, WITH WEAK WESTERLY FLOW AT THE LOWER
LEVELS KEEPING MOISTURE RETURN AT BAY.
FRIDAY WILL BRING CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
(AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE) TRAVERSES THE STATE AND
DRAWS MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. FREEZING TO NEAR-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA COULD MEAN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS; HOWEVER, RELATIVELY WEAK
ASCENT SHOULD MEAN LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. ZOOMING OUT, THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BE PART OF A STOUT, POSITIVELY-TILTED LONGWAVE
TROUGH ANCHORED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THAT WILL SEND ANOTHER
MUCH MORE DYNAMIC VORTICITY MAXIMUM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, DRIVING THE WEEKEND SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS A BIT MURKY BUT THINGS ARE
BEGINNING TO COME INTO FOCUS FOR SAT/SUN. A COLD AIRMASS BEGINS TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT AS AN ARCTIC HIGH PUSHES SOUTH OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SQUEEZE AN UPPER LEVEL,
POSITIVELY TILTED, TROUGH AT THE SAME TIME THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTS OFF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TINY ADJUSTMENTS IN THE RESULTANT
LOCATION OF THE 700MB LOW WILL BE THE DECIDING FACTOR FOR WHICH
LOCATIONS RECEIVE SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL
ACROSS OUR NORTH AND EASTERN COUNTIES WITH POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
PUSHING WESTWARD THROUGH SAT.
OUR MAJOR STICKING POINTS FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE THE INITIATION
OF PRECIPITATION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. SEVERAL
MODEL MEMBERS BRING MOISTURE IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND GENERALLY
LEAD TO A WETTER FIRST HALF. THE MODELS WHICH MOVE QUICKER END UP
DEVELOPING A STRONGER LOW WHICH CREATES A MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM
LEADING TO BACK-END SNOW POTENTIAL AS THE MAIN HAZARD (THOUGH THE
INITIAL PUSH MAY TRIGGER SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
ISOLATED FLURRIES ELSEWHERE). AT THIS POINT, GIVEN THE SNOW
COVERAGE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY, THE COLDER AND FASTER SOLUTION
SEEMS TO HAVE THE SLIGHT EDGE IN THIS SITUATION. THE RESULT FROM
THIS WOULD BE A QUICKER PUSH OF COLD AIR AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST
GEORGIA AND WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD, STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL DRIVE
WIND GUSTS >30MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. COMBINING THIS WITH THE
20:1 SNOW RATIOS AND WE COULD SEE SOME "SURPRISE" SNOWBANDS WITH
ISOLATED ACCUMULATIONS EVEN IN THE DRY SLOT.
AT THIS TIME WERE LOOKING AT 0.5" OR LESS FOR MOST OF THE ATL AND
MCN AREAS WITH 1 TO 2" FOR AREAS ALONG EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE INCLUDING THE GAINESVILLE, ATHENS, GREENSBORO, AND
SANDERSVILLE AREAS. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS. PLEASE SEE THE WSW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
TEMPERATURES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE FRIGID AND
WINDCHILL VALUES COULD DROP BELOW ZERO SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT EEK PAST FREEZING UNTIL MONDAY MORNING WITH A
SLOW TEMPERATURE RECOVERY THROUGH DAY 7. WE MAY SEE ANOTHER SHOT
OF RAIN ON DAY 7 AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES EAST OUT OF TX TUESDAY AND
ACROSS GA WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS TODAY WILL TRANSITION TO MIDLEVEL CIGS 5-10 KFT BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY. LIGHT W TO NW WINDS AT 3-5 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
NEAR CALM TO VRB BY 00Z WITH LIGHT E WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS MORE
PROBABLE AFTER 06Z. WIND DIRECTION IS FAVORED TO TRANSITION BACK
TO W BY 15-17Z FRIDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS.
RW
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 46 26 49 27 / 0 0 10 40
ATLANTA 45 30 48 23 / 0 0 10 20
BLAIRSVILLE 40 22 43 17 / 0 0 10 60
CARTERSVILLE 44 24 47 21 / 0 0 10 20
COLUMBUS 52 31 54 26 / 0 0 10 10
GAINESVILLE 44 27 46 25 / 0 0 10 40
MACON 51 29 55 29 / 0 0 10 10
ROME 47 27 50 24 / 0 0 0 20
PEACHTREE CITY 48 26 51 23 / 0 0 10 10
VIDALIA 54 32 59 35 / 0 0 10 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-
066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ005>009-013>016-021>025-027-032>039-044>051-055-057>062-
072>076-083>086.
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...RW
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