657
FXUS62 KFFC 291959
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
259 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 235 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
- A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WAS EXPANDED IN AREA AND ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF NORTH AND EAST-
CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
- ACROSS THE WINTER STORM WATCH AREA, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH WILL
LEAD TO DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS.
- DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND. AN EXTREME COLD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR WIND CHILLS
RANGING FROM AS COLD AS TEN BELOW TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE A TIME OF TRANSITION HEADING
INTO MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEEKEND WEATHER. RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT
BEING AN APPROACHING WEAK MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE
AREA. THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE INCREASINGLY OVERCAST CLOUD COVER
WITH A COUPLE OF SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE, THOUGH THE BULK
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AMID OVERCAST SKIES, RANGING FROM THE 40S
IN NORTH GEORGIA TO MID 50S IN MIDDLE GEORGIA.
FRIDAY NIGHT BEGINS THE TRANSITION INTO A MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL
FORECAST PERIOD. FIRST, A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL INTRUDE
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT BRINGING
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING TOWARD THE AREA AS IT
DEEPENS AND CLOSES BY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WRAPAROUND THE LOW,
BRINGING INCREASING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTH GEORGIA.
GIVEN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES, ACCUMULATIONS WILL BEGIN QUICKLY
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF EARLY ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS FAR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY. A WINTER
STORM WATCH BEGINS AT 7 PM FRIDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
INITIAL SNOW ONSET. ROADS WILL BECOME SLICK AND ICY IN SHORT ORDER
GIVEN THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES, AND IMPACTS WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE HEADING INTO THE DAY SATURDAY AS DISCUSSED IN THE LONG-
TERM FORECAST SECTION BELOW.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
PICKING UP THE LONG TERM FORECAST SATURDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL
BE COLD AS PEAK 500MB HEIGHTS MOVE OVERHEAD. HEIGHTS WILL BE AS MUCH
AS 6 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OUTSIDE OF NORMAL (OR 99.9999998TH
PERCENTILE; WHAT A MONSTER). SURFACE FLOW WILL BE PICKING UP FROM
THE NORTH AS MAXIMUM SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP. FROM WEST TO
EAST, LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS RESOLVE A GRADIENT OF 5MB OVER 160KM
OR 1MB EVER 32KM (YOU CAN DO THE MATH YOURSELF TO CONVERT TO
EMPIRICAL). EXPECT WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON TO REACH OVER 30MPH ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK "HEATING" IN
THE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW WILL BE HEAVILY MOISTURE
DEPENDENT, WITH ANY MOISTURE ADJUSTMENT LEADING TO BIG CHANGES IN
SNOW POTENTIAL. SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING AT LOW-END CONVECTIVE SNOW
SQUALL-ESQUE CONDITIONS. PEAK SFCCAPE VALUES MAY REACH NON-ZERO
VALUES IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH SFCCIN > -10. ANY SNOW WEST OF ATHENS
MAY COME IN TIGHT BANDS WITH A "FEAST OR FAMINE" SNOWFALL
DISTRIBUTION AND VISIBILITY COULD DROP QUICKLY.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE SATURDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME AND CONDITIONS CLEAR
OUT, WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AND TEMPERATURES FALL QUICKLY. WINDS
CHILLS COULD FALL INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH POCKETS AS LOW AS -5F TO -15F NORTH OF I85.
THIS HAS NECESSITATED AN EXTREME COLD WATCH FOR ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK COULD REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD WITH AREAS SOUTH OF THE ATL METRO
UNTIL SUNDAY AND PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA HOLDING UNTIL MONDAY.
CONDITIONS RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE, IF COOL, CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
ONWARD AND OUR NEXT SYSTEM DOESN'T BEGIN TO SWING THROUGH UNTIL MID
WEEK. CONDITION ON THIS LATER SYSTEM WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR AS WE
GET THROUGH THIS FIRST SYSTEM, THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WARMER
THAN THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS TODAY WILL TRANSITION TO MIDLEVEL CIGS 5-10 KFT BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY. LIGHT W TO NW WINDS AT 3-5 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
NEAR CALM TO VRB BY 00Z WITH LIGHT E WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS MORE
PROBABLE AFTER 06Z. WIND DIRECTION IS FAVORED TO TRANSITION BACK
TO W BY 15-17Z FRIDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS.
RW
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 26 49 27 29 / 0 10 40 70
ATLANTA 30 48 23 26 / 0 10 20 40
BLAIRSVILLE 22 43 17 21 / 0 10 60 60
CARTERSVILLE 24 47 21 25 / 0 10 20 20
COLUMBUS 31 54 26 32 / 0 10 10 20
GAINESVILLE 27 46 25 27 / 0 10 40 50
MACON 29 55 29 34 / 0 10 10 40
ROME 27 50 24 29 / 0 0 20 20
PEACHTREE CITY 26 51 23 28 / 0 10 10 30
VIDALIA 32 59 35 39 / 0 10 10 40
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-
066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ005>009-013>016-021>025-027-032>039-044>051-055-057>062-
072>076-083>086.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...RW
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