542
FXUS62 KFFC 311745
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1245 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
..NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1235 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
- A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTH AND EAST-CENTRAL
GEORGIA WHERE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL CREATE DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS TODAY.
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST GEORGIA THROUGH
PORTIONS OF MIDDLE GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL TODAY.
- AN EXTREME COLD WARNING COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL
RANGE FROM AS COLD AS FIFTEEN BELOW TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
WINTER STORM OVERVIEW:
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GA
TODAY, COURTESY OF A VERY ANOMALOUS (5 TO 6 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL) MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS DROPPING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING ALONG AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH
IT, WHICH IS ALREADY SPILLING OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW INTO NORTH GA
VERY EARLY THIS MORNING AND LEADING TO PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES.
THE OTHER PLAYER IN THIS SETUP IS A COASTAL SURFACE LOW THAT IS
RAPIDLY DEEPENING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. ALL OF THESE FEATURES
ARE WORKING TOGETHER TO CREATE A POTENT SNOWSTORM ACROSS TN, GA,
AND THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND.
AS OF 2AM, NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE STARTED TO STRENGTHEN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF
THE COAST, AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US. THIS IS
STARTING TO PULL THE FRIGID AIRMASS INTO NW GA, WITH TEMPERATURES
ALREADY DROPPING BELOW FREEZING. THE TIMING OF THIS IS LINING UP
PERFECTLY FOR WINTER WEATHER, AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT JUST AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CREATING A WIDE SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW THAT
IS JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO NW GA. THIS SETUP WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE REST OF NORTH AND EAST-CENTRAL GA THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS, BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING
OFF TO THE EAST.
FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
AREAS CURRENTLY COVERED BY A WINTER STORM WARNING (GENERALLY ALONG
AND TO THE EAST OF THE I-75/I-16 CORRIDOR), WITH LOCALIZED
SNOWFALL TOTALS UP TO 6 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL GA. SNOWFALL TOTALS UP TO 1" ARE
FORECAST TO THE WEST/SOUTH OF THIS, WITHIN THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY (ALONG AND WEST OF I-75 TO THE AL BORDER, AND THEN SOUTH
AND EAST TO TELFAIR, WHEELER, MONTGOMERY, AND TOOMBS).
SNOW SQUALLS AND MESOSCALE BANDING:
ONE ASPECT OF THE FORECAST THAT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH VERY CLOSELY
AS THINGS UNFOLD TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS AND
MESOSCALE BANDING. THESE ARE NARROW AREAS OF INTENSE SNOWFALL
RATES AND LEAD TO LOCALIZED SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS, BUT ARE HARD TO
FORECAST IN ADVANCE. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL
FOR A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND TO FORM ALONG A CONVERGENCE ZONE
IN THE WIND FIELD, WHERE THE NORTHWEST WINDS MEET THE NORTHEAST
WINDS. AT THIS TIME, WE ARE THINKING THAT THIS GENERALLY NORTH-
SOUTH ORIENTED LINE OF CONVERGENCE IS GOING TO BE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE EAST SIDE OF THE ATLANTA METRO AND ATHENS. WHEREVER
THIS ENDS UP FORMING COULD END UP BEING THE AREA THAT SEES THE
MOST SNOW FOR THIS EVENT, WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6
INCHES.
IMPACTS:
THE TYPE OF SNOW FOR THIS EVENT WILL BE UNCOMMON THIS FAR SOUTH,
AS SNOW RATIOS WILL BE AROUND 15-20 TO 1, YIELDING A DRY AND
POWDERY SNOW. TYPICALLY WE SEE WET SNOW WITH RATIOS UNDER 8 TO 1.
WHEN YOU COMBINE THE DRY AND POWDERY SNOW WITH AIR AND ROAD
TEMPERATURES ALREADY BELOW FREEZING, THE SNOW WILL STICK AND
ACCUMULATE INSTANTLY. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATING
ROAD CONDITIONS WHEREVER SNOW FALLS. WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH
WILL ONLY DETERIORATE THINGS FURTHER, REDUCING VISIBILITY IN
FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. PUTTING ALL OF THIS TOGETHER, TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME DANGEROUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH THE
HARDEST HIT SPOTS POTENTIALLY EXPERIENCING IMPASSABLE ROADS.
UNFORTUNATELY, DESPITE SNOW TAPERING OFF BY THIS EVENING, TRAVEL
CONDITIONS MAY NOT IMPROVE THROUGH SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING, DELAYING ANY MELTING.
DANGEROUS COLD AND WIND CHILLS:
THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC AIRMASS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL COMBINE TO
CREATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THEIR
WARMEST EARLY THIS MORNING, AND WILL GRADUALLY DROP THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS THE COLD AIRMASS STARTS TO MOVE IN, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE 20S IN NORTH GA AND LOW 30S IN CENTRAL GA. WIND CHILLS FOR
MOST OF THE DAY WILL RANGE FROM 0 TO 10 DEGREES IN NORTH GA, AND
10 TO 20 DEGREES IN CENTRAL GA. AN EXTREME COLD WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA STARTING AT 7PM TONIGHT, AS LOW
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS BY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS (BELOW ZERO IN FAR NORTH GA). THIS
TIME PERIOD WILL BE DANGEROUS FOR ANYONE EXPOSED TO THE ELEMENTS,
AND WILL ALSO CREATE A HIGHER RISK FOR BURST PIPES. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE LOW TO MID 30S IN NORTH GA,
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN CENTRAL GA, BUT WIND CHILLS WILL
REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THAT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
GIVEN LIMITED WARMING AND TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED HIGHER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION ON SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL LARGELY HAVE DIMINISHED BY THIS TIME SO WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS AREAWIDE. SO NOT QUITE AS EXTREME AS SUNDAY MORNING BUT
FRIGID NONETHELESS.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND ON MONDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME MELTING OF SNOWFALL. FORECAST HIGHS WILL
RISE INTO THE 40S, THOUGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE A TAD COOLER IN
AREAS WHERE SNOWFALL STICKS AROUND. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
FALL BELOW FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WITH VALUES IN THE
20S AREAWIDE. MORE NOTABLE WARMING OCCURS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS NORTH GA AND LOWER 60S IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.
WHILE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES STILL PRESENT SOME UNCERTAINTIES, THERE IS
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BETWEEN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE AT THIS TIME GIVEN TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AT
ONSET AND THROUGH THE DURATION OF ANY PRECIP. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS
A POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF MIX OR PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST GA MOUNTAINS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO AN END. DETAILS INCLUDING TIMING AND AMOUNTS
WILL BE DISCUSSED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
PRIMARILY MVFR CONDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WITH RAPID
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR AFT 04-05Z. PDS OF -SN ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR
(AND PERHAPS IFR, AT TIMES) VSBYS REMAIN PSBL THRU 20-21Z AS
BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW SWING ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS INTO THE
AFTN. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OUT OF THE NW AT 15-25KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25-35KTS INTO THE EVENING. GRADUAL SLACKENING IS EXPECTED
THRU THE TAF PD, THOUGH GUSTS TO 25KTS ARE STILL LIKELY SUNDAY
AFTN.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 32 13 38 20 / 90 20 0 0
ATLANTA 30 15 36 23 / 70 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 23 5 30 10 / 90 10 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 28 14 36 17 / 60 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 34 18 41 22 / 20 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 30 14 36 21 / 90 10 0 0
MACON 36 17 41 22 / 30 0 0 0
ROME 30 19 40 22 / 40 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 30 14 39 20 / 50 0 0 0
VIDALIA 43 18 41 23 / 40 30 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
GAZ001>004-011-012-019-020-030-031-041>043-052>054-056-066>071-
078>083-089>096-107-109-110.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-
078>086-089>098-102>113.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GAZ005>009-
013>016-021>025-027-032>039-044>051-055-057>062-072>076-084>086-
097-098.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GAZ111>113.
SHORT TERM...CULVER
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...96
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