981
FXUS62 KFFC 211144
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
644 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 639 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM TODAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ON MONDAY OR
TUESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TIMING AND IMPACTS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS TODAY:
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE STATE WILL INTERACT WITH A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT IN CENTRAL GEORGIA. IF STORMS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE, THEN
SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WITH THE SUPERCELL COMPOSITE INDEX HOVERING
BETWEEN 3 AND 6 ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. TOSS IN SBCAPE
VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 6.5 C/KM, AND
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE BOTH POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS ARE
PROBABLY THE GREATEST THREAT GIVEN THE FAIRLY LINEAR HODOGRAPHS.
LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 50 TO 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. THE HAIL RISK IS LOWER, WITH THE MAIN THREAT PROBABLY BEING
HAIL IN THE PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE RANGE. LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IN THE
PROJECTED HODOGRAPHS IS LIMITED, BUT ANY STORMS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE
OR DEVELOP INTO BOWING SEGMENTS MAY MODIFY THERE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT
ENOUGH TO GENERATE A BRIEF SPIN UP TORNADO. WE'LL SEE HOW THINGS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE A DECENT CHANCE THAT
THE SPC WILL NEED TO CONSIDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OR TORNADO
WATCH FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL GEORGIA LATER TODAY.
TONIGHT & SUNDAY:
A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH GEORGIA TONIGHT. DRIER AND COLDER
AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT, ENDING ANY PRECIPITATION AND
SETTING US UP FOR A COOL AND BLUSTERY DAY ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL
KICK IN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND
850 MB WINDS IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL NEED
FOR A WIND ADVISORY ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE FROM THE NBM SUGGESTS A 15
TO 40% CHANCE OF BREACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA (GUSTS OF 35 MPH
OR MORE). OPEN WIND SWEPT LOCATIONS LIKE ATL MAY GUST INTO THE 40 TO
50 MPH RANGE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
AS THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT, DEEP TROUGHING WILL
BE POSITIONED TO THE EAST OF GEORGIA AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING INTO A
NOR'EASTER OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE
ONGOING ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND AT THE SURFACE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN A
COLD AND DRY AIRMASS, WHICH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS OVERNIGHT AND ON MONDAY WILL BE 15-25
MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30 MPH, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MORNING
WILL LARGELY RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S, THOUGH COULD BE AS
LOW AS THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
ONGOING GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN
10-20 ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA, AND DOWN INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AT THE RIDGETOPS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE BETWEEN 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
LATE FEBRUARY, STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND ONLY RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.
TUESDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST PERIOD OF THE WEEK,
WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S (AND TEENS IN THE
MOUNTAINS). AFTER THIS POINT, THE TROUGHING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
WILL BEGIN TO DAMPEN AND MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST, AND A SURFACE HIGH
WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE UNDERNEATH THIS HIGH THROUGH MID-WEEK, RISING MAINLY INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW TO MID 60S ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL HELP DRY OUT FINER FUELS. WITH RISING TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE TEENS ON TUESDAY, RH VALUES ARE ALREADY
FORECAST TO DROP TO BELOW ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT WILL BE MOST LIKELY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF
RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE MOVEMENT AND EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM, WHICH WILL DETERMINE THE SPECIFIC IMPACTS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR
IN NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MOST PROBABLE IN CENTRAL GEORGIA BETWEEN 16Z TODAY AND 02Z
SUNDAY. MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN NORTH
GEORGIA BEFORE 16Z TODAY. A MIX OF NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS
(2 TO 8 KT) ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 04Z SUNDAY, THEN GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP. PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KT ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 06Z AND 23Z SUNDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE IN A THUNDERSTORM BEFORE 16Z TODAY.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CEILING HEIGHTS AND WIND DIRECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 05Z SUNDAY.
ALBRIGHT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 65 42 50 26 / 80 60 10 0
ATLANTA 66 39 49 26 / 80 60 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 63 30 41 18 / 80 50 0 10
CARTERSVILLE 68 35 48 23 / 70 60 0 0
COLUMBUS 76 42 54 28 / 80 50 0 0
GAINESVILLE 65 39 47 25 / 70 60 0 0
MACON 75 44 54 28 / 80 70 0 0
ROME 72 38 51 27 / 60 40 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 68 38 50 25 / 80 60 0 0
VIDALIA 81 51 59 30 / 80 80 10 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ALBRIGHT
LONG TERM....KING
AVIATION...ALBRIGHT
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