473
FXUS62 KFFC 211828 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
128 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
..NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1258 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM TODAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ON MONDAY OR
TUESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TIMING AND IMPACTS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS TODAY:
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE STATE WILL INTERACT WITH A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT IN CENTRAL GEORGIA. IF STORMS CAN REMAIN
DISCRETE, THEN SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WITH THE SUPERCELL COMPOSITE
INDEX HOVERING BETWEEN 3 AND 6 ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. TOSS IN SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND 700-500 MB LAPSE
RATES NEAR 6.5 C/KM, AND DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE BOTH
POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS ARE PROBABLY THE GREATEST THREAT GIVEN
THE FAIRLY LINEAR HODOGRAPHS. LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 50 TO 70 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE HAIL RISK IS LOWER, WITH
THE MAIN THREAT PROBABLY BEING HAIL IN THE PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE
RANGE. LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IN THE PROJECTED HODOGRAPHS IS LIMITED,
BUT ANY STORMS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE OR DEVELOP INTO BOWING
SEGMENTS MAY MODIFY THERE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE A
BRIEF SPIN UP TORNADO. WE'LL SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE A DECENT CHANCE THAT THE SPC WILL
NEED TO CONSIDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OR TORNADO WATCH FOR
A PORTION OF CENTRAL GEORGIA LATER TODAY.
TONIGHT & SUNDAY:
A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH GEORGIA TONIGHT. DRIER AND COLDER
AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT, ENDING ANY PRECIPITATION AND
SETTING US UP FOR A COOL AND BLUSTERY DAY ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS
WILL KICK IN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER AND 850 MB WINDS IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE SUGGESTING A
POTENTIAL NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE FROM THE
NBM SUGGESTS A 15 TO 40% CHANCE OF BREACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA (GUSTS OF 35 MPH OR MORE). OPEN WIND SWEPT LOCATIONS LIKE
ATL MAY GUST INTO THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
AS THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT, DEEP TROUGHING
WILL BE POSITIONED TO THE EAST OF GEORGIA AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING INTO
A NOR'EASTER OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE ONGOING ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND AT THE
SURFACE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
USHER IN A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS, WHICH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS OVERNIGHT AND ON MONDAY WILL BE
15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30 MPH, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
MORNING WILL LARGELY RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S, THOUGH
COULD BE AS LOW AS THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE ONGOING GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN 10-20 ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA, AND DOWN
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AT THE RIDGETOPS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE BETWEEN 15-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY, STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ONLY RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TUESDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST PERIOD OF THE WEEK,
WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S (AND TEENS IN THE
MOUNTAINS). AFTER THIS POINT, THE TROUGHING TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA WILL BEGIN TO DAMPEN AND MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST, AND A SURFACE
HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE UNDERNEATH THIS HIGH THROUGH MID-WEEK, RISING
MAINLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW TO MID
60S ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HELP DRY OUT FINER FUELS. WITH RISING
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE TEENS ON TUESDAY, RH
VALUES ARE ALREADY FORECAST TO DROP TO BELOW ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WILL BE MOST LIKELY ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL EXTEND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WHICH
WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE LATER
PARTS OF THE WEEK. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE
MOVEMENT AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM, WHICH WILL DETERMINE THE
SPECIFIC IMPACTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
THE BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION THAT IMPACTED THE ATLANTA AREA
EARLIER IN THE DAY IS NOW PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF MCN AND CSG.
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRA AND TS ARE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS.
EXPECTING MVFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH PERIODS OF IFR.
ANOTHER PUSH OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, LIKELY KEEPING
CIGS MVFR. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NW OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGH SUNDAY. SKY CONDITIONS ARE PROGGED TO IMPROVE BY
10Z-12Z ACROSS THE ATLANTA AREA.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION OF CIGS AND TIMING OF -RA OVERNIGHT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
MARTIN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 65 42 50 26 / 80 60 10 0
ATLANTA 66 39 49 26 / 80 60 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 63 30 41 18 / 80 50 0 10
CARTERSVILLE 68 35 48 23 / 70 60 0 0
COLUMBUS 76 42 54 28 / 80 50 0 0
GAINESVILLE 65 39 47 25 / 70 60 0 0
MACON 75 44 54 28 / 80 70 0 0
ROME 72 38 51 27 / 60 40 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 68 38 50 25 / 80 60 0 0
VIDALIA 81 51 59 30 / 80 80 10 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ALBRIGHT
LONG TERM....KING
AVIATION...MARTIN
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