326
FXUS62 KFFC 220705
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
205 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 159 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
- BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
IN TODAY AND MONDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGERS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
ON TUESDAY.
- THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE IN
GEORGIA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
WINDY & COLDER THROUGH MONDAY:
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER AND A
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
TODAY AND MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 8 AM AND
7 PM TODAY WHEN MID-LEVEL WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KT (925-850 MB LAYER)
AND A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 40
MPH RANGE. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE GUSTY
WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY, THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OVER 35 MPH WILL
BE LOWER FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA, WHERE GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING.
CAA INDUCED BY THE THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY. TODAY'S HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S
AND 50S, WITH WIDESPREAD 40S ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY. THE COLDEST
CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY MORNING, WHEN TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH SHOULD PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 5 TO 15
DEGREE RANGE. LATER SHIFTS MY NEED TO CONSIDER A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION. MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. A SURFACE HIGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL ALSO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AS IT DRAWS CLOSER, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET, WITH GUSTS COMING TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. WITH THE COLD
AIRMASS LINGERING ACROSS GEORGIA, ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES, THE PERIOD OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA, WITH SOME TEENS
ALSO LIKELY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTH GEORGIA. THESE
LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 10-16 DEGREES BELOW DAILY NORMALS. WIND CHILLS
COULD ONCE AGAIN DROP TO BELOW 10 AT THE RIDGETOPS OF FAR NORTHEAST
GEORGIA. DURING THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY, THE RIDGE WILL DISPLACE THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AWAY TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL
REBOUND UNDERNEATH THIS HIGH, RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
IN SPITE OF RISING TEMPERATURES, DEWPOINTS WILL STILL RANGE FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS ON TUESDAY, LEADING TO RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DECREASING TO UNDER 25% FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE GUSTY NW WINDS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
SERVING TO DRY OUT FUELS FROM THE WEEKEND'S RAIN, IT IS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE NEEDED ON
TUESDAY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
MEANDER EAST TOWARDS THE CARIBBEAN, WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND BRINGING WARM AND MOIST FLOW FROM THE GULF
INTO GEORGIA. LOW TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE
30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT
AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN NORTH GEORGIA (AND
50S IN THE MOUNTAINS) AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN CENTRAL
GEORGIA.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL EXTEND A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT INTO
THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD SOUTH/EAST
OVER THE COURSE OF THURSDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING FAIRLY WARM
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN ALL
RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, BUT THIS
AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH THE ATMOSPHERE
IS ABLE TO DESTABILIZE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND HOW THE
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT EVOLVE. AT THIS TIME, RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHEST IN AREAS NORTH OF I-20, RANGING FROM 0.75-
1.25 INCH, WITH PROGRESSIVELY LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AS FRONTAL
FORCING WEAKENS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO TREND TOWARDS BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AND THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA BY 12Z TODAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MOVE IN
AS THE RAIN CONCLUDES. WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 40 KT
RANGE ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 09Z TODAY AND 06Z MONDAY. AREAS OF MVFR
AND LIFR CEILINGS WILL END IN EASTERN GEORGIA BY 11Z, THEN SKIES
WILL BECOME CLEAR STATE WIDE AFTER 16Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL ELEMENTS OF THE KATL TAF.
ALBRIGHT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 49 26 44 24 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 47 25 41 25 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 39 17 34 16 / 0 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 47 23 41 21 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 53 27 46 24 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 46 25 41 24 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 53 27 46 25 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 50 26 44 24 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 49 24 42 22 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 58 29 48 26 / 10 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-
078>086-089>098-102>113.
SHORT TERM...ALBRIGHT
LONG TERM....KING
AVIATION...ALBRIGHT
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