899
FXUS62 KFFC 221808 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
108 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
..NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1248 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW (MONDAY), PROMPTING A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING FOR HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS.
- HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AND
TUESDAY.
- THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL COME
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
WINDY & COLDER THROUGH MONDAY:
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER AND A
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
TODAY AND MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 8 AM
AND 7 PM TODAY WHEN MID-LEVEL WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KT (925-850 MB
LAYER) AND A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT GUSTS IN THE
25 TO 40 MPH RANGE. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT
THE GUSTY WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY, THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OVER
35 MPH WILL BE LOWER FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA, WHERE
GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING.
CAA INDUCED BY THE THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY. TODAY'S HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S
AND 50S, WITH WIDESPREAD 40S ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY. THE COLDEST
CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY MORNING, WHEN TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH SHOULD PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 5
TO 15 DEGREE RANGE. LATER SHIFTS MY NEED TO CONSIDER A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY REGION. MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. A SURFACE HIGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL ALSO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AS IT DRAWS CLOSER, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET, WITH GUSTS COMING TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. WITH THE COLD
AIRMASS LINGERING ACROSS GEORGIA, ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES, THE PERIOD OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED
TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA, WITH
SOME TEENS ALSO LIKELY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTH
GEORGIA. THESE LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 10-16 DEGREES BELOW DAILY
NORMALS. WIND CHILLS COULD ONCE AGAIN DROP TO BELOW 10 AT THE
RIDGETOPS OF FAR NORTHEAST GEORGIA. DURING THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY,
THE RIDGE WILL DISPLACE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AWAY TO THE EAST AND
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL REBOUND UNDERNEATH THIS HIGH,
RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
IN SPITE OF RISING TEMPERATURES, DEWPOINTS WILL STILL RANGE FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS ON TUESDAY, LEADING TO RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DECREASING TO UNDER 25% FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE GUSTY NW WINDS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
SERVING TO DRY OUT FUELS FROM THE WEEKEND'S RAIN, IT IS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE NEEDED ON
TUESDAY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
MEANDER EAST TOWARDS THE CARIBBEAN, WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND BRINGING WARM AND MOIST FLOW FROM THE GULF
INTO GEORGIA. LOW TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE
30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT
AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN NORTH GEORGIA (AND
50S IN THE MOUNTAINS) AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN CENTRAL GEORGIA.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL EXTEND A DEVELOPING COLD
FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ACROSS FAR NORTH
GEORGIA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND
SPREAD SOUTH/EAST OVER THE COURSE OF THURSDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING FAIRLY WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, BUT THIS AND SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH THE ATMOSPHERE IS ABLE TO
DESTABILIZE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND HOW THE SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT EVOLVE. AT THIS TIME, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST
TO BE HIGHEST IN AREAS NORTH OF I-20, RANGING FROM 0.75-1.25
INCH, WITH PROGRESSIVELY LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AS FRONTAL
FORCING WEAKENS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO TREND TOWARDS
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA TO THE SOUTH
ON FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
FEW TO BKN STRATO-CU BETWEEN ~4 KFT AND ~6 KFT REMAIN ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA, NORTH OF THE ATLANTA AREA TERMINALS AND AHN. THIS
CLOUD COVER MAY SURGE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT, BUT CLOUD BASES SHOULD
REMAIN ~4 KFT AT THE LOWEST (AND FEW TO SCT). GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW (MONDAY). AT ATL,
SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS ~22 KTS AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS ~40 KTS
WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY UNTIL AROUND SUNSET, AFTER WHICH POINT
WINDS AND GUSTS SHOULD RELAX BY SOME 5-10 KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
MARTIN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 49 26 44 24 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 47 25 41 25 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 39 17 34 16 / 0 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 47 23 41 21 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 53 27 46 24 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 46 25 41 24 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 53 27 46 25 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 50 26 44 24 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 49 24 42 22 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 58 29 48 26 / 10 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ001>009-011>016-
019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113.
SHORT TERM...ALBRIGHT
LONG TERM....KING
AVIATION...MARTIN
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