968
FXUS62 KFFC 230637
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
137 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 129 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
- COLD TODAY, WITH MORNING WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS.
- HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY (80% CHANCE) ON
TUESDAY.
- THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL COME THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DRIVE CAA AND ENSURE THAT TODAY IS THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK DESPITE AMPLE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. FOR THOSE
HEADING OUT THIS MORNING VERY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE CONCERN.
THROUGH NOON TODAY WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL VALUES IN TEENS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED, WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA. VALUES SHOULD RECOVER SOME THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IT WILL FELL
LIKE WINTER ALL DAY TODAY. WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
WILL OCCUR TODAY, WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR IN THE REGION TODAY (MINIMUM VALUES
BETWEEN 22 AND 32%), BUT RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD PREVENT FUELS FROM
GETTING TO DRY. THUS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
LINGERING LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD ALLOW FUELS TO
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT ON TUESDAY, AND THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR 10
HOUR FUELS TO BECOME MORE SUSCEPTIBLE. FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL BE
MORE MODEST ON TUESDAY. WE'LL SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP, BUT AT THIS
TIME THERE IS A 80% CHANCE OF A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR A PORTION
OF NORTH OR CENTRAL GEORGIA ON TUESDAY. THE LOW HUMIDITY ON TUESDAY
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE START OF A WARMING TREND. LOOK FOR
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 50S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
AS THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT, DEEP TROUGHING
PREVIOUSLY OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE SHIFTING EASTWARD AWAY
FROM THE REGION. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT CLOSER TO ZONAL AS A RESULT.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
MEANDER EAST TOWARDS THE CARIBBEAN, WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND BRINGING WARM AND MOIST FLOW FROM THE GULF
INTO GEORGIA. LOW TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES
THAT AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN NORTH
GEORGIA (AND LOW TO MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS) AND MID 60S TO NEAR
70 IN CENTRAL GEORGIA.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL EXTEND A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION ON WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY, THOUGH POPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE LESS THAN 15% AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE STATE LINE. THE INSULATING EFFECT OF THE CLOUD COVER
WILL LEAD TO LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ON THURSDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, WITH A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS STATE LINE. THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH AND LOW WILL HELP PUSH THE LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA BY EARLY THURSDAY.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD SOUTH/EAST OVER THE COURSE
OF THURSDAY, BECOMING WIDESPREAD INTO FRIDAY.;
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING FAIRLY WARM THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN SHOWERS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS
TIME, INSTABILITY APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE MARGINAL, THOUGH STRONG
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD SUPPORT A NARROW BAND OF FORCED
ASCENT. THUS, A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS ON THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO
BE HIGHEST IN AREAS NORTH OF I-85, RANGING FROM 1-1.5 INCH, WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS FRONTAL FORCING
WEAKENS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW, INDICATING THAT IT WILL MOVE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AND
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA TO THE SOUTH DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS (SKC-BKN AOA 4000 FT AGL AND UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITY) WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE FROM THE NORTHWEST, WITH PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KT
BETWEEN 15Z AND 22Z TODAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL ELEMENTS OF THE TAF.
ALBRIGHT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 44 24 53 36 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 41 25 53 37 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 34 15 50 32 / 10 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 41 20 53 35 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 46 24 55 35 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 41 25 52 37 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 47 24 54 35 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 44 23 56 39 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 43 23 54 35 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 48 25 54 35 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113.
SHORT TERM...ALBRIGHT
LONG TERM....KING
AVIATION...ALBRIGHT
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