552
FXUS62 KFFC 231914
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
214 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 203 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH AND EAST
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH 7PM THIS EVENING. OUTDOOR BURNING IS
STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT,
WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE WARMTH EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK.
- THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL COME THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE MID-LEVELS AND
RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. TODAY WILL BE THE COLDEST
AND MOST WINTER-LIKE OF THE WORK WEEK -- AHEAD OF A SHIFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON THAT WILL USHER IN A WARMING
TREND -- WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S. GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS (ONGOING DROUGHT), HASTENED DRYING OF FINE FUELS UNDER
BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST 30 HOURS, AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON, A SHORT-FUSED RED FLAG
WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH 7PM. OUTDOOR BURNING IS DISCOURAGED.
TUESDAY MORNING AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLIER THAN THIS MORNING,
FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO 20S AREAWIDE UNDER CLEAR SKIES. LIGHTER
WINDS WILL KEEP WIND CHILL VALUES WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF ACTUAL
LOWS. WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY MILD IMPROVEMENTS IN DEWPOINTS
WILL SUPPORT LOWER VALUES OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
LIKELY NECESSITATING FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ISSUANCE FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. WEAKENING WINDS UNDER A SLACKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRECLUDE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FROM BEING MET.
EXPECT HIGHS TO BEGIN THEIR GRADUAL SWING TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE
WARMTH, RISING INTO THE 50S BY MID-AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WAVE EXTENDS A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY, BUT NOT EXPECTING PRECIP CHANCES
TO INCREASE UNTIL WED NIGHT AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWS ITS
SOUTHERLY PROGRESSION. THE INSULATING EFFECT OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL
LEAD TO LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. BY LATE WED NIGHT, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH SE
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY, WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS
STATE LINE. THE MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH AND LOW WILL HELP PUSH THE
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH. PRECIP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL ARRIVE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA BY EARLY
THURSDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD SOUTH/EAST OVER
THE COURSE OF THURSDAY, BECOMING WIDESPREAD INTO FRIDAY.
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING FAIRLY WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN SHOWERS. RIGHT NOW, WERE
NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY OR DYNAMICS WITH THIS NEXT
SYSTEM SO KEEPING MAINLY SHOWERS WITH AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
THREAT IN THE FORECAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHEST
IN AREAS NORTH OF I-85, RANGING FROM 1" TO 1.5", WITH PROGRESSIVELY
LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS FRONTAL FORCING WEAKENS.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW, INDICATING THAT IT WILL MOVE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AND THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA TO THE SOUTH DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR CONDS TO CONTINUE THRU THE TAF PD. LINGERING FEW-SCT LOW VFR
CIGS WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH MID-AFTN, WITH
SKC EXPECTED LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. FEW-SCT CIRRUS AT 20-25KFT
WILL RETURN BY 10-11Z TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OUT OF
THE NW AT 12-18KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-28KTS THROUGH 00Z, GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF TO 4-7KTS BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 25 53 36 62 / 0 0 0 10
ATLANTA 25 53 38 63 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 16 50 30 54 / 0 0 0 10
CARTERSVILLE 20 53 35 62 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 25 55 35 69 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 25 51 37 59 / 0 0 0 10
MACON 25 55 35 68 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 25 56 39 66 / 0 0 0 10
PEACHTREE CITY 23 54 35 64 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 27 54 35 69 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ052-066-067-
069-078>081-089>095-102>113.
SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...96
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