916
FXUS62 KFFC 251739
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1239 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
..NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1232 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
- AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
THIS PERIOD OF TIME WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SOUTHWEST WINDS (WAA),
RETURNING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND AREAS OF RAINFALL. THE WAA AND
RETURNING MOISTURE WILL BE NOTICED BY ALL TODAY AS TEMPERATURE MOVE
BACK INTO THE 60S AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP IN NORTH GEORGIA.
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG A ZONE OF
CONFLUENT FLOW THAT WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
DUE TO SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR THE BEST RAIN CHANCE WILL OCCUR AT
HIGHER ELEVATION, AND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES WHERE WEEK
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL BE ONGOING ALL DAY. ANY RAINFALL TODAY SHOULD
BE VERY LIGHT (0.10 INCHES OR LESS).
A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARDS WILL SPREAD THE RAIN CHANCES INTO THE
REST OF GEORGIA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL DURING
THIS PERIOD SHOULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS DIURNAL HEATING THE FRONT
MIX. GUIDANCE FROM THE CAMS SUGGESTS MUCAPE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG
RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY THOUGH, DUE TO
NARROW CAPE PROFILES AND LIMITED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. SOME STORMS MAY
ALSO OCCUR NORTH OF THE FRONT AND THIS SHOULD REDUCE THE SEVERE RISK
FURTHER. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH ON INTERSTATE 20, WHERE 0.25 TO 0.75
INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED. LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AND INCH ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
ON THURSDAY NIGHT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION, WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW CENTERED TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTHEAST OF GEORGIA. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW WILL BE ENTERING FAR NORTH GEORGIA,
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ONGOING TO ITS IMMEDIATE SOUTH. BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING, THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER NORTH GEORGIA
AND THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT FURTHER NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. THE MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH AND LOW WILL HELP PUSH
THE FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH GEORGIA, AND THE AXIS OF THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH
ACCORDINGLY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT CENTRAL GEORGIA TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY EARLY SATURDAY, WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE DAYTIME. WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING FAIRLY WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALL
LIQUID. INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LARGELY BE LIMITED,
THOUGH FORCING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, MOST LIKELY IN CENTRAL
GEORGIA ON FRIDAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 0.75-1.5 INCH, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTH GEORGIA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND
THE EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 40S EACH DAY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS ON ARE FORECAST TO
RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON ON SATURDAY AND MID 70S ON
SUNDAY. SOME MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY,
BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE AREA.
POPS HAVE INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT LARGELY REMAIN
BETWEEN 20-30%.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE MVFR REMAINDER OF THE DAY BUT
OVERCAST AT VARIOUS LEVELS NONETHELESS. GUIDANCE AND
SOUNDINGS ALL IN AGREEMENT OF CIGS LOWERING OVERNIGHT
AFTER 06Z BUT BEFORE 12Z PUSHING INTO IFR LEVELS
ALL WHILE SHOWERS BEGIN DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
APPROACHING. INCLUDED EITHER VCSH OR SHRA IN THE MORNING
WHICH SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.
FOR ATL, INCLUDED PROB30 TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN PROB
THUNDER MAXIMIZES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MAIN LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH. CIGS COULD BOUNCE UP
TO 015 TO 020 DURING THE AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE LOW ON THAT PART OF THE FORECAST.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND PRECIP TIMING
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON AFTERNOON CIGS.
30
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 62 52 64 53 / 10 30 80 60
ATLANTA 62 54 65 53 / 10 30 80 70
BLAIRSVILLE 55 45 60 46 / 20 80 90 40
CARTERSVILLE 62 52 66 51 / 10 50 80 60
COLUMBUS 69 55 71 57 / 0 30 70 90
GAINESVILLE 59 52 63 51 / 10 50 90 50
MACON 68 55 70 57 / 0 20 80 90
ROME 65 54 69 53 / 10 70 80 50
PEACHTREE CITY 64 53 66 54 / 0 30 80 80
VIDALIA 70 54 71 59 / 0 10 60 70
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...30
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