987
FXUS62 KFFC 251944
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
244 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 121 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
- AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. LOW END SEVERE RISK
THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA
INTO FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
SURFACE RIDGE WELL OF THE EAST COAST CONTINUES
TO SQUASH SOUTH AND EAST YIELDING TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY WAA
SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, BROAD
FLAT TROF DOMINATES THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WITH AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WILL BE OUR
WEATHER MAKER TOMORROW AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE SLIGHTLY
WNW FLOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY PICKS UP ACROSS N GA EARLY THU ALONG A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE REACHES THE TN
VALLEY. THE LACK OF ANY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IN THE AM
SUGGESTS WE WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH JUST SHOWERS. HOWEVER, AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE LATE AM/EARLY
AFTERNOON, GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL INCREASE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY..GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I20
FROM AROUND 1PM ONWARD. COMBINED WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR,
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SPC MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR THE AREA
TOMORROW ALONG WITH A RISK OF A STRONG STORM OR TWO. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE OF A SKINNY CAPE LOOK, SO THE RISK WOULD
LIKELY BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE...BUT STILL NON-ZERO. LL WIND
PROFILE GENERALLY UNIFORM THUS THE TORNADO RISK WOULD BE LOW,
YIELDING MORE OF AN ISOLATED WIND RISK...IF A STRONG UPDRAFT CAN
BE REALIZED.
SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH DURING THE DAY WHICH COULD
YIELD SOME AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. INTERESTING SPREAD IN THE
NBM GUIDANCE BETWEEN 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE BEING AS HIGH AS 2"
AS A RESULT OF MODELS NOT CERTAIN ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY SLOWS
WHILE TRAINING HEAVER CELLS. MOST LIKELY AREA IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
MACON AND ATLANTA BUT TOO EARLY TO TELL... COULD SEE SOME AREAS
OF 2" OR MORE IF THAT HAPPENS. ATL SPREAD: 0.6-1.79" AND MCN
SPREAD: 1.03"-2.52".
RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH LINGERING SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH GA
INTO FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED RANGE ON FRIDAY, FORECAST EVOLUTION
HINGES UPON THE MOVEMENT (OR LACK THEREOF) OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. ENSEMBLE AND CLUSTER GUIDANCE
ARE DIVERGENT REGARDING 1) WHERE THE BOUNDARY STALLS/SLOWS AND 2)
HOW QUICKLY DRYING OCCURS/HOW LONG THE BOUNDARY IS STALLED. THE NBM
FORECAST REFLECTS THE DISSONANCE AMONGST THE DRIER GEFS AND THE
WETTER/SLOWER ENS: THE 25TH PERCENTILE 24-HOUR (7PM THURSDAY THROUGH
7PM FRIDAY) QPF FOR A POINT APPROXIMATELY HALFWAY BETWEEN ATLANTA
AND MACON IS JUST 0.3", WHILE THE 75TH PERCENTILE IS OVER 2".
FURTHER, 6-HOURLY NBM QPF IS RUNNING ABOVE THE 50TH PERCENTILE, SO
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE SEE RAINFALL TOTALS SLASHED IF DRIER
SOLUTIONS WIN OUT -- NOTABLY, THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT MUCH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA IS PRECIPITATION-FREE ON FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW, AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 0.75" OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE COURSE OF THE DAY FRIDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 1-1.25" IF THE BOUNDARY LINGERS. STAY TUNED FOR
FURTHER REFINEMENT WITH BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT.
EXPECTING PRIMARILY SHOWERS TO BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IF PRECIPITATION
LINGERS INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS IT STANDS, INSTABILITY REMAINS MEAGER
(GENERALLY LESS THAN 500-750 J/KG), WITH LONG, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES
AND WEAK LAPSE RATES THAT POINT TOWARD RAINFALL AS OPPOSED TO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MOVING INTO SATURDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON THE HEELS OF
THE FRONT, WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE MID-
LEVELS SETS US UP FOR A DRY AND MILD WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO
RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND, THOUGH ENOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN
AMONGST GLOBAL MODELS TO CAP CHANCES AT 20-30%.
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED, WITH HIGHS
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S. LOWS EACH
MORNING WILL BE COMPARABLY WARM, IN THE MID-40S TO LOWER 50S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE MVFR REMAINDER OF THE DAY BUT
OVERCAST AT VARIOUS LEVELS NONETHELESS. GUIDANCE AND
SOUNDINGS ALL IN AGREEMENT OF CIGS LOWERING OVERNIGHT
AFTER 06Z BUT BEFORE 12Z PUSHING INTO IFR LEVELS
ALL WHILE SHOWERS BEGIN DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
APPROACHING. INCLUDED EITHER VCSH OR SHRA IN THE MORNING
WHICH SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.
FOR ATL, INCLUDED PROB30 TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN PROB
THUNDER MAXIMIZES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MAIN LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH. CIGS COULD BOUNCE UP
TO 015 TO 020 DURING THE AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE LOW ON THAT PART OF THE FORECAST.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND PRECIP TIMING
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON AFTERNOON CIGS.
30
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 52 65 53 64 / 40 90 80 50
ATLANTA 54 65 53 66 / 40 90 80 40
BLAIRSVILLE 45 60 46 64 / 70 90 60 20
CARTERSVILLE 51 66 49 67 / 50 90 70 30
COLUMBUS 55 71 56 69 / 20 80 90 70
GAINESVILLE 51 63 51 64 / 50 90 70 30
MACON 55 70 57 68 / 20 80 90 80
ROME 54 70 50 72 / 60 90 70 20
PEACHTREE CITY 53 66 53 67 / 30 80 90 50
VIDALIA 54 73 59 69 / 10 60 60 90
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...30
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