245
FXUS62 KFFC 260338 AAB
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1038 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
..EVENING UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 930 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
- AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS LOW, BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND, THEN RAIN CHANCES
WILL MAKE A COMEBACK EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 930 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
MOST OF THE 00Z CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS) CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA TOMORROW (THURSDAY) MORNING, THEN
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
(CWA) THROUGH THE DAY AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS THROUGH. A
FEW OF THE CAMS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THIS LINE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
THE DAY, BUT THAT A RENEWED CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY SHIFT EASTWARD
FROM ALABAMA INTO GEORGIA IN THE EVENING (ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECONDARY MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE) -- GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH BOTH WAVES OF CONVECTION. THE PARTS OF
THE CWA (AGAIN, LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20) THAT EXPERIENCE
THESE TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SEE THE GREATEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS -- WITH LOCALIZED SWATHS UP TO 2+ INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE LOCALIZED GREATER RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT POSE
MUCH OF A FLASH FLOODING CONCERN, GIVEN SUCH DRY SOIL CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
SURFACE RIDGE WELL OF THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO SQUASH SOUTH
AND EAST YIELDING TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY WAA SETTING UP ACROSS THE
AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, BROAD FLAT TROF DOMINATES THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE US WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE LOCATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WILL BE OUR WEATHER MAKER TOMORROW AS IT
SLIDES SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE SLIGHTLY WNW FLOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY
PICKS UP ACROSS N GA EARLY THU ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE REACHES THE TN VALLEY. THE LACK OF ANY
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IN THE AM SUGGESTS WE WILL LIKELY BE
DEALING WITH JUST SHOWERS. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
SOUTH THROUGH THE LATE AM/EARLY AFTERNOON, GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL INCREASE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY..GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I20 FROM AROUND 1PM ONWARD.
COMBINED WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A SPC MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR THE AREA TOMORROW ALONG WITH A RISK
OF A STRONG STORM OR TWO. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE OF A SKINNY
CAPE LOOK, SO THE RISK WOULD LIKELY BE MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE...BUT STILL NON-ZERO. LL WIND PROFILE GENERALLY UNIFORM
THUS THE TORNADO RISK WOULD BE LOW, YIELDING MORE OF AN ISOLATED
WIND RISK...IF A STRONG UPDRAFT CAN BE REALIZED.
SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH DURING THE DAY WHICH
COULD YIELD SOME AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. INTERESTING SPREAD IN
THE NBM GUIDANCE BETWEEN 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE BEING AS HIGH AS
2" AS A RESULT OF MODELS NOT CERTAIN ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY SLOWS
WHILE TRAINING HEAVER CELLS. MOST LIKELY AREA IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
MACON AND ATLANTA BUT TOO EARLY TO TELL... COULD SEE SOME AREAS
OF 2" OR MORE IF THAT HAPPENS. ATL SPREAD: 0.6-1.79" AND MCN
SPREAD: 1.03"-2.52".
RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH LINGERING SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH GA
INTO FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED RANGE ON FRIDAY, FORECAST EVOLUTION
HINGES UPON THE MOVEMENT (OR LACK THEREOF) OF A COLD FRONT
ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. ENSEMBLE AND
CLUSTER GUIDANCE ARE DIVERGENT REGARDING 1) WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS/SLOWS AND 2) HOW QUICKLY DRYING OCCURS/HOW LONG THE
BOUNDARY IS STALLED. THE NBM FORECAST REFLECTS THE DISSONANCE
AMONGST THE DRIER GEFS AND THE WETTER/SLOWER ENS: THE 25TH
PERCENTILE 24-HOUR (7PM THURSDAY THROUGH 7PM FRIDAY) QPF FOR A
POINT APPROXIMATELY HALFWAY BETWEEN ATLANTA AND MACON IS JUST
0.3", WHILE THE 75TH PERCENTILE IS OVER 2". FURTHER, 6-HOURLY NBM
QPF IS RUNNING ABOVE THE 50TH PERCENTILE, SO THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT WE SEE RAINFALL TOTALS SLASHED IF DRIER SOLUTIONS WIN OUT --
NOTABLY, THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA IS PRECIPITATION-FREE ON FRIDAY MORNING. FOR NOW, AN
ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 0.75" OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE COURSE
OF THE DAY FRIDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
UP TO 1-1.25" IF THE BOUNDARY LINGERS. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER
REFINEMENT WITH BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT.
EXPECTING PRIMARILY SHOWERS TO BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS IT STANDS,
INSTABILITY REMAINS MEAGER (GENERALLY LESS THAN 500-750 J/KG),
WITH LONG, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AND WEAK LAPSE RATES THAT POINT
TOWARD RAINFALL AS OPPOSED TO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MOVING INTO SATURDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON THE HEELS
OF THE FRONT, WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE
MID-LEVELS SETS US UP FOR A DRY AND MILD WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND, THOUGH ENOUGH
DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONGST GLOBAL MODELS TO CAP CHANCES AT 20-30%.
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED, WITH
HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S.
LOWS EACH MORNING WILL BE COMPARABLY WARM, IN THE MID-40S TO LOWER
50S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
(THURSDAY) MORNING, WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR BY ~12Z. SHRA WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING, WITH IFR LIKELY
ACROSS THE ATLANTA AREA TERMINALS AND AHN. A LINE OF CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP AND TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SO WE ARE
MAINTAINING A PROB30 FOR TSRA FROM 19Z TO 23Z AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. A PROB30 FOR TSRA FROM 21Z TO 00Z HAS BEEN INTRODUCED
AT MCN AND CSG. FOR THE MOST PART, EXPECTING THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NO WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED AS
THE PREVAILING DIRECTION WILL REMAIN SW (OUTSIDE OF GUSTY, ERRATIC
WINDS IN TSRA).
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON SHRA AND TSRA TIMING.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON AFTERNOON/EVENING CIGS TOMORROW.
MARTIN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 52 64 53 63 / 30 80 60 30
ATLANTA 54 65 53 66 / 30 80 70 20
BLAIRSVILLE 45 60 46 64 / 80 90 40 10
CARTERSVILLE 52 66 51 68 / 50 80 60 20
COLUMBUS 55 71 57 70 / 30 70 90 50
GAINESVILLE 52 63 51 64 / 50 90 50 20
MACON 55 70 57 68 / 20 80 90 60
ROME 54 69 53 72 / 70 80 50 10
PEACHTREE CITY 53 66 54 67 / 30 80 80 30
VIDALIA 54 71 59 69 / 10 60 70 70
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...MARTIN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page