986
FXUS62 KFFC 131726 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
126 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
..NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
AFTER A CRISP MORNING BRINGING AREAS OF FROST, TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AMID ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH
TEMPERATURES ON A RAPID WARMING TREND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PRESENTLY SITUATED OVERHEAD WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION EASTWARD AND
OFFSHORE TODAY, LEADING TO A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. IN A PERHAPS WELCOME CHANGE FROM OUR RECORD EARLY MARCH
WARMTH (WARMEST MARCH 1-11 ON RECORD AT ATLANTA AND ATHENS AND
SECOND WARMEST AT COLUMBUS AND MACON), HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
WIND UP NEAR NORMAL.
SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL AGAIN ON SATURDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR QUICK REBOUND AMID CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW. AFTER
LOWS IN THE 40S, HIGHS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S,
BACK TO 10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
AFTER SEVERAL DRY AND MILD DAYS POST-FRONT, THE EXTENDED RANGE OPENS
ON SUNDAY MORNING TO MOISTURE REBOUNDING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT CHANCE
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD (AND ORGANIZED) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DEWPOINTS WILL SURGE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR --
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. CONCURRENTLY, AND
MORE NOTABLY, A STRONG TROUGH AT THE MID-LEVELS DEEPENS AND PROCURES
A WEAKLY NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH A BROAD AND ROBUST
COLD FRONT IN TOW AT THE SURFACE. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE STATE SOMETIME BETWEEN
SUNDAY EVENING AND EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, ALMOST CERTAINLY
ACCOMPANIED BY A QUASI-ORGANIZED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WHAT REMAINS
TO BE SEEN IS THE CHANCES FOR SEGMENTS ALONG THE LINE TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE. A DAY 4 15% (EQUIVALENT TO A SLIGHT) RISK HAS BEEN
ANALYZED BY THE SPC OFF TO OUR WEST, AND A DAY 5 15% (SLIGHT) RISK
IS SITUATED OFF TO OUR EAST, WHICH SETS THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS FOR LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY. THE NAM ANALYZES A NARROW CORRIDOR OF BOLSTERED SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY (PRIMARILY ALONG THE AL/GA STATE LINE) OVERLAPPING
WITH THE CORE OF THE JET SWINGING THROUGH ALOFT BEGINNING AROUND
DAYBREAK MONDAY. WILL BE KEEPING A CAUTIOUS EYE ON THIS AS IT ENTERS
THE PURVIEW OF HIRES GUIDANCE/CAMS.
WITH THE AREA ONCE AGAIN POST-FRONTAL ON TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET AS A SURFACE HIGH OF ARCTIC ORIGIN SETTLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR NEARLY
THE ENTIRETY OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING IF TRENDS CONTINUE -- MORNING LOWS ARE POISED TO DROP INTO
THE MID-20S TO LOWER 30S. MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM -- AND TO ROUND OUT
THE WORK WEEK -- WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO MODERATE, WARMING
BY SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY WIDELY BOTH PRE- AND POST-FRONT, AND AS THE
AIRMASS STAGNATES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID-70S TO LOWER 80S, AS MUCH AS 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID-MARCH. TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE
THE COLDEST IN SEVERAL WEEKS, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID-40S TO
LOWER 50S. EXCEPT WARMING BY AN ADDITIONAL 5-10 DEGREES EACH
SUBSEQUENT DAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
(SATURDAY) AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION. DUE TO
THIS HIGH PRESSURE, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THORUGH THE PERIOD - BUT LOOK FOR A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONAL
PUSH DURING PEAK HEATING (AFTERNOON HOURS).
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.
DJN.83
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 65 42 75 52 / 0 0 0 10
ATLANTA 66 46 75 55 / 0 0 0 10
BLAIRSVILLE 61 37 71 47 / 0 0 0 10
CARTERSVILLE 67 41 75 53 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 70 45 78 57 / 0 0 0 20
GAINESVILLE 64 43 73 52 / 0 0 0 10
MACON 68 43 78 57 / 0 0 0 10
ROME 70 42 79 55 / 0 0 0 10
PEACHTREE CITY 67 42 76 54 / 0 0 0 10
VIDALIA 72 47 81 58 / 0 0 0 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...DJN.83
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