724
FXUS62 KFFC 131849
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
249 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 240 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
- DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY.
- WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
LIKELY BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
QUIET, BEAUTIFUL LATE WINTER/EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS
THE AREA FOLLOWING YESTERDAY'S SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW RESULTING IN
VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS. AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL (BUT SEASONAL)
START TO THE DAY TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP INTO THE
70S AREA-WIDE BENEATH SUNNY SKIES. ENJOY IT, AS BIG CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK!
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON SUNDAY, WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF WHAT IS SHAPING UP
TO BE AN IMPRESSIVELY DYNAMIC WEATHER SYSTEM. DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AREAWIDE AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 80S WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH ALL
EYES WILL BE TO OUR WEST AS A DEEPENING NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST BRINGING WITH IT A STRONG COLD
FRONT. GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS AT 500MBS AND AN INCREASING SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT, ANOTHER QLCS TYPE EVENT APPEARS PROBABLE. THIS WILL
ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. EXACT TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
SOMEWHAT UNKNOWN BUT CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER (NAMELY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS
AND TORNADOES) TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS FOR
500MB REVEALS GENERALLY 3 DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS...
1- A SLOWER MOVING AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALIGNING MORE WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON
MONDAY THEREBY INCREASING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING.
THIS ACCOUNTS FOR ROUGHLY 45% OF THE ENSEMBLES.
2- A QUICKER MOVING AND BROADER MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WOULD RESULT
IN TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH EARLIER AND ALLOW
LESS TIME FOR DESTABILIZATION. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH THIS SOLUTION, THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE MORE LIMITED. THIS ACCOUNTS FOR 42% OF
THE ENSEMBLES.
3- A QUICKER MOVING AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT BUT MAKING FOR VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS (WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS) AS IT EXITS. THIS ACCOUNTS FOR
ROUGHLY 15% OF THE ENSEMBLES.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OUR CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT SEVERE
WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY AND WE ARE TAKING ALL OF THE SOLUTIONS
MENTIONED ABOVE INTO ACCOUNT. AS WE CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
PURVIEW OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE WE WILL BE KEEPING A VERY CLOSE EYE
ON THINGS. STAY TUNED...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
NW WINDS WILL BEGIN USHERING IN DRIER AND COLDER AIR INTO NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BOTH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AND
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE THE 20S TO LOW 30S AND WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO
20S (5-10 DEG COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS) FOR BOTH NIGHTS. GIVEN THE
RECENT PERIOD OF WARM, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, THIS DRASTIC
CHANGE, WHICH COULD BE SOME 20-30 DEGREES BETWEEN MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY, WILL BE A THREAT TO CROPS AND VEGETATION.
FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE NEEDED.
TUESDAY IS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONE OF THE COOLER DAYS NEXT WEEK,
AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND OUR FORECAST
AREA IS SITUATED ROUGHLY AT THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH. FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S IN CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY TRANQUIL WEATHER FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TRENDING
WARMER EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
(SATURDAY) AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION. DUE TO
THIS HIGH PRESSURE, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD - BUT LOOK FOR A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONAL
PUSH DURING PEAK HEATING (AFTERNOON HOURS).
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.
DJN.83
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 43 75 50 72 / 0 0 10 50
ATLANTA 46 75 55 74 / 0 0 10 40
BLAIRSVILLE 38 72 47 65 / 0 0 0 30
CARTERSVILLE 41 75 53 74 / 0 0 0 30
COLUMBUS 46 78 57 80 / 0 0 10 30
GAINESVILLE 44 73 51 69 / 0 0 0 30
MACON 44 78 55 79 / 0 0 10 50
ROME 43 79 55 78 / 0 0 0 20
PEACHTREE CITY 43 76 53 76 / 0 0 10 40
VIDALIA 48 81 57 84 / 0 0 10 60
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...DJN.83
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