402
FXUS62 KFFC 140535
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
135 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 121 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
- DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY.
- WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
LIKELY BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
QUIET, BEAUTIFUL LATE WINTER/EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS
THE AREA FOLLOWING YESTERDAY'S SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW RESULTING IN
VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS. AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL (BUT SEASONAL)
START TO THE DAY TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP INTO THE
70S AREA-WIDE BENEATH SUNNY SKIES. ENJOY IT, AS BIG CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK!
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON SUNDAY, WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF WHAT IS SHAPING UP
TO BE AN IMPRESSIVELY DYNAMIC WEATHER SYSTEM. DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AREAWIDE AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 80S WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH ALL
EYES WILL BE TO OUR WEST AS A DEEPENING NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST BRINGING WITH IT A STRONG COLD
FRONT. GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS AT 500MBS AND AN INCREASING SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT, ANOTHER QLCS TYPE EVENT APPEARS PROBABLE. THIS WILL
ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS FAR NW
GEORGIA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.
EXACT TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNKNOWN BUT CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER (NAMELY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES) TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS FOR
500MB REVEALS GENERALLY 3 DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS...
1- A SLOWER MOVING AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALIGNING MORE WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON
MONDAY THEREBY INCREASING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING.
THIS ACCOUNTS FOR ROUGHLY 45% OF THE ENSEMBLES.
2- A QUICKER MOVING AND BROADER MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WOULD RESULT
IN TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH EARLIER AND ALLOW
LESS TIME FOR DESTABILIZATION. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH THIS SOLUTION, THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE MORE LIMITED. THIS ACCOUNTS FOR 42% OF
THE ENSEMBLES.
3- A QUICKER MOVING AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT BUT MAKING FOR VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS (WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS) AS IT EXITS. THIS ACCOUNTS FOR
ROUGHLY 15% OF THE ENSEMBLES.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OUR CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT SEVERE
WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY AND WE ARE TAKING ALL OF THE SOLUTIONS
MENTIONED ABOVE INTO ACCOUNT. AS WE CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
PURVIEW OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE WE WILL BE KEEPING A VERY CLOSE EYE
ON THINGS. STAY TUNED...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
NW WINDS WILL BEGIN USHERING IN DRIER AND COLDER AIR INTO NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BOTH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AND
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE THE 20S TO LOW 30S AND WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO
20S (5-10 DEG COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS) FOR BOTH NIGHTS. GIVEN THE
RECENT PERIOD OF WARM, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, THIS DRASTIC
CHANGE, WHICH COULD BE SOME 20-30 DEGREES BETWEEN MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY, WILL BE A THREAT TO CROPS AND VEGETATION.
FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE NEEDED.
TUESDAY IS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONE OF THE COOLER DAYS NEXT WEEK,
AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND OUR FORECAST
AREA IS SITUATED ROUGHLY AT THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH. FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S IN CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY TRANQUIL WEATHER FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TRENDING
WARMER EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT AND VRB THROUGH THE MORNING, TRENDING
TO SSE BY 18-20Z WITH SPEEDS 4-7 KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RW
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 50 72 51 64 / 10 50 80 80
ATLANTA 55 74 47 59 / 10 30 90 70
BLAIRSVILLE 47 65 41 55 / 0 30 90 70
CARTERSVILLE 53 74 42 56 / 0 20 90 60
COLUMBUS 57 80 49 61 / 10 20 80 60
GAINESVILLE 51 69 47 59 / 0 40 90 70
MACON 55 79 55 68 / 10 50 70 80
ROME 55 78 45 56 / 0 10 90 50
PEACHTREE CITY 53 76 46 59 / 10 30 90 60
VIDALIA 57 84 63 74 / 10 60 60 80
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...RW
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