843
FXUS62 KFFC 150546
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
146 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 135 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RETURNING RAIN/THUNDER
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR EAST-CENTRAL GA.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WARM TEMPERATURES AND BENIGN WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY BUT CHANGES ARE ON THE HORIZON (SEE LONG TERM).
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER
60S TO MID-70S ACROSS MOST PLACES. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S IN NORTH GA TO NEAR 80 IN PARTS OF CENTRAL
GA. INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 40S TO 50S TONIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY, THERE IS A GROWING CONCERN FOR A FEW DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY REACHING
SEVERE CRITERIA -- THIS WOULD BE AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY (SEE LONG TERM). A NORTHWARD MOVING
WARM FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-DAY.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH INSTABILITY STILL ON THE ORDER OF 500-900 J/KG
(MLCAPE) AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADO THREAT ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME, THE THREAT LOOKS TO BE GREATEST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
GEORGIA.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL INCLUDE A BREAKDOWN OF THE SEVERE
THREAT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WELL AS THE COMING COLD-SNAP
TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR PRETTY
MUCH THE ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MODELS
REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE DEEP POLAR
TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT NEGATIVE TILTING AS IT TRAVERSES THE EASTERN
CONUS. DYNAMICS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE SCREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DRIVING SFC-500MB
SHEAR OF >75KTS. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL BE TIMING THE FRONT
ITSELF AS THE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY GIVE THE
FRONT SOME SIGNIFICANT FORWARD MOVEMENT (WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A LINE MOVING AT 60-70+ MPH SUNDAY NIGHT). THAT SAID, MODELS
ARE SPREAD ON THE EXACT TIME IN WHICH THE LINE WILL ARRIVE WHICH
HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON AVAILABLE CAPE. THE HIGHEST SEVERE
THREAT LIES WITH MODELS WHICH BRING THE FRONT IN LATER, ALLOWING
FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE MORNING ON MONDAY
(1000-1500+ J/KG; SEE NAM). OTHER MODELS, SUCH AS THE HRRR, BRING
THE FRONT THROUGH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS (3-7AM) WHICH WOULD
LIMIT CAPE VALUES MORE TO 500-1000J/KG. GIVEN THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND THE TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT, WOULD LEAN
MORE TOWARDS THE FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE SLOWER. MAIN HAZARDS
WITH THIS LINE (OR DISCREET CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE) WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOS.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE LINE WILL DROP QUICKLY (20-30 DEGREES IN
6HRS OR LESS). LOWS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA. MACON AND COLUMBUS COULD SEE LOW TEMPS
BOTH DAYS WHICH RIVAL OR BREAK RECORD LOWS. THIS WILL POSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISK TO SPRING TIME CROPS AND VEGETATION.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY WILL BE GUSTY WITH
THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA (>35MPH GUSTS) OF
AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS RETURN TO THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH LOWS CLIMBING OUT
OF THE 30S FOR MOST BY SATURDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH AN INITIAL
INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL CLOUDS 5-8 KFT THROUGH 12Z. THE PROBABILITY
OF MVFR CIGS INCREASES AFTER 14-15Z INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
SOME TRENDING BACK TOWARD VFR LIKELY AFTER 18-20Z. ISO/SCT -SHRA
ARE MOST LIKELY AT AHN/MCN AND PERHAPS ATL AREA SITES, GENERALLY
15-19Z AT MCN AND 18-22Z AT NORTHERN SITES. ISO -TSRA ALSO CAN'T
BE RULED OUT. A DRY PERIOD WILL RETURN THEREAFTER BEFORE
WIDESPREAD -SHRA AND A LINE OF TSRA WITH GUSTY WINDS ARRIVES AT
ATL AREA SITES, LIKELY 07-12Z MONDAY. CIGS WILL ALSO DETERIORATE
TO AT LEAST MVFR DURING THIS TIME. WINDS INITIALLY WILL BE SE
04-08 KTS, INCREASING TO 08-12 KTS DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS OVER
20 KTS MORE LIKELY AFTER 18Z. DIRECTION TRENDS SW AFTER 03-05Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON MVFR COVERAGE AND -SHRA COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OTHER ELEMENTS.
RW
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 48 61 28 48 / 60 90 0 0
ATLANTA 41 57 28 46 / 80 70 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 37 55 19 40 / 90 70 10 0
CARTERSVILLE 39 53 25 46 / 90 60 0 0
COLUMBUS 46 61 29 51 / 80 70 0 0
GAINESVILLE 44 58 28 45 / 80 80 0 0
MACON 53 66 30 51 / 50 80 0 0
ROME 42 53 27 48 / 90 50 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 41 58 26 48 / 80 70 0 0
VIDALIA 62 73 33 52 / 40 90 10 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...RW
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