884
FXUS62 KFFC 161807
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
207 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
..NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 200 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
- SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I-85, THOUGH IMPACTFUL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT.
- TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB LATE THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHS RETURNING
TO THE 70S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
THIS MORNING:
A MATURE SQUALL LINE IS SLIDING EASTWARD THIS MORNING, ENTERING
NORTHWEST GEORGIA AS OF 3 AM. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE LINE
CONTINUES TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS A RISK FOR QLCS SPIN-
UP TORNADOES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, DEVELOPING
ISOLATED CONVECTION CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA IN ADVANCE OF THE
LINE BEARS WATCHING. THIS NARROW REGION OF ENHANCED MOISTURE AND
RESULTANT HIGHER INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL TORNADO
RISK IN ANY OF THESE ISOLATED CELLS AS THEY APPROACH WEST-CENTRAL
GEORGIA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THEY ARE ABSORBED BY THE MAIN
LINE.
THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO RACE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING, ROUGHLY
BISECTING THE AREA BY 8 AM. AREAS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LINE
DESTABILIZE A BIT FURTHER BY MID-MORNING, LEADING TO A CONTINUED
RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. FORTUNATELY, THE THREAT WILL COME TO AN
END IN THESE AREAS ROUGHLY BY NOON AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA.
THIS AFTERNOON:
THE OTHER BIG STORY BEHIND THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THE RAPIDLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES AND BLAST OF WINTER-LIKE WEATHER THAT WILL
QUICKLY ARRIVE FROM WEST TO EAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON, IT WILL INTERACT WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
AMID FALLING TEMPERATURES, LIKELY LEADING TO SOME CHANGEOVER FROM
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE
HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH GEORGIA (GENERALLY NORTHWEST
OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR) FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DRY AIR SHUTS THINGS OFF. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT VERY WARM WEATHER AND
RESULTANT WARM SURFACES AND ROADS (CURRENT ROAD TEMPERATURE SENSORS
READ IN EXCESS OF 60-70 DEGREES) AS WELL AS MARGINAL AIR
TEMPERATURES LARGELY ABOVE FREEZING AS SNOW FALLS, ANY ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL WILL BE VERY LIMITED. STILL, GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES
COULD BRIEFLY SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION IN BRIEFLY HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. NO NOTABLE IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED, AND MELTING WOULD
LIKELY OCCUR IN SHORT ORDER. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
SUSTAINED LIGHT DUSTING WOULD BE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS, BUT EVEN HERE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD LIKELY
LARGELY BE OF THE SUB-1" VARIETY. OTHERWISE, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL KEEP THINGS FEELING QUITE COLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT:
A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT AREAWIDE WITH TUESDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS. WIND CHILLS WILL
BE EVEN COLDER, FEELING LIKE THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR MOST
AREAS BY SUNRISE.
TUESDAY:
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST AMID NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
WELL BELOW NORMAL DESPITE SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
40S IN NORTH GEORGIA TO LOW-TO-MID 50S SOUTH.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
VERY COLD AND DRY THROUGH MID-WEEK:
FOLLOWING THE STRONG COLD FRONT ON MONDAY, A MUCH COOLER THAN
NORMAL AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
MID 20S IN NORTH GA, AND UPPER 20S IN CENTRAL GA, WITH BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING THE 'FEELS-LIKE' TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THAT. A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD AS ANY VEGETATION AND CROPS THAT HAVE 'SPRUNG-UP' WOULD BE
AT A SIGNIFICANT RISK. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 40S EVEN DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL FEEL VERY COLD
AFTER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. WITH WEAKENING WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES, TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL WARM TO THE MID TO UPPER
50S AS THE AIRMASS STARTS TO MODERATE.
DRY AND WARMER LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND:
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, A VERY STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL START TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST AND SPREAD
INTO OUR AREA, KICKING OUT THE COLD AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO THE 60S ON THURSDAY, 70S ON FRIDAY, AND 80S OVER
THE WEEKEND. MORNING LOWS WILL CLIMBING BACK UP TO THE 40S BY
FRIDAY, AND 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. BETWEEN THE DRY NORTHWEST MID-
LEVEL FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE, RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN BELOW 10% THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED IN ALONG WITH STRONG AND GUSTY NW
WINDS. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CIGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR OR FLIRTING WITH IFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON TODAY WITH PRECIP BEFORE LIFTING INTO VFR RANGE BY THIS
EVENING. PRECIP COULD BE MIXED SLEET/SNOW/RAIN AT METRO ATL SITES
FOR A FEW HOURS AS THE COLD AIR SURGES IN. MAINTAIN A PROB30 GROUP
THROUGH 21Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ONCE THE PRECIP ENDS
AND THE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN THIS EVENING THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
30
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 28 48 28 53 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 29 48 31 56 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 19 40 20 51 / 0 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 27 47 26 57 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 30 52 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 28 46 28 53 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 30 52 30 56 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 29 50 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 27 49 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 34 54 32 58 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR GAZ001>009-011>016-
019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>084-089>096-102>107.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>021-030.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...30
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