737
FXUS62 KFFC 260542
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
142 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ANY RAINFALL
RECEIVED WILL SUPPORT IMPROVEMENTS IN ONGOING DROUGHT.
- FAIRLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES (70S & 80S) ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS SHOWERS AND NOW ISOLATED THUNDER IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A MCV FEATURE OVER NORTH/NORTHEAST GA AT THE TIME
OF THIS WRITING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO
SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE, NAMELY SOUTH OF I-
85, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN TO PICK UP OVER THE
LAST HOUR AND IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
WILL COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS NORTH GA, INCLUDING ATL. A WEAK COLD FRONT
BACK TO OUR NW, DRAPED ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND NORTH AL WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY ALREADY INDICATES
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO FIRE JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. AT THE
VERY LEAST PARTS OF NORTH GA WILL LIKELY SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS, AS TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO RECOVER IN THOSE
AREAS AND SBCAPE > 500 J/KG ALREADY BEING REALIZED. SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, BASED ON TRENDS AND HOW THINGS ARE SETTING UP
SUSPECT HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LARGELY BE NORTH
OF I-85 EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH OF I-85 AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. DEFINITELY A LOT OF MOVING PARTS AND THINGS TO CONSIDER
WITH TODAY'S FORECAST. HOPEFULLY YOU GET LUCKY AND RECEIVE SOME MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL. WOULD ALSO LIKE TO NOTE, ALSO MENTIONED IN THE
PRIOR FORECAST, TODAY'S RAIN WILL NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATE THE
ONGOING DROUGHT! IT WILL HELP TO IMPROVE IT AND AS WE LIKE TO SAY
EVERY LITTLE BIT COUNTS.
A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE SOMETHING
TO MONITOR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVE DECENT RAINFALL. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. MOST PLACES SHOULD BE POST-FRONTAL BY SUNDAY, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS IN CENTRAL GA. THE
COLD FRONT WONT DO MUCH TO HELP TEMPERATURES WITH FORECAST HIGHS
STILL EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO 80S IN MOST PLACES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE AXIS OF A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS CLEARS GEORGIA TO
THE EAST. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
NORTHEAST, A CAD WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS AND SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THIS WEDGE.
UNDER THIS WEDGE, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE LIMITED TO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S (AND EVEN UPPER 60S AT THE RIDGETOPS) COMPARED TO LOW
TO MID 80S IN CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE COOLER, MORE STABLE AIRMASS
WITHIN THIS WEDGE WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY, WITH POPS OF 10% OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE, THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT OUR AREA WILL BE BREWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. AS STRONG TROUGHING ROTATES AROUND A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL CANADA, CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE MIDWEST, AIDED BY A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET. THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY INTENSIFIES AND
EXTEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO WORK THEIR WAY INTO
FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA BY ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BEGINS TO SPREAD FURTHER EAST.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A WARM AND MOIST
ENVIRONMENT BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
POTENTIALLY ROBUST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WHERE THE WEDGE BOUNDARY
LINGERS, THERE IS A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON THE
POSITION OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY AND WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHERE CONDITIONS
ALIGN, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT (MOST LIKELY ALONG SAID WEDGE BOUNDARY). LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
PROGGED TO BE WEAKER DURING THE DAYTIME, BUT INCREASING INSTABILITY
WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND A RISK FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM GOING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED AS THE FRONTAL
FORCING WEAKENS AS IT PUSHES FURTHER INTO THE STATE.
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THIS SECOND WAVE WILL OVERRUN THE TAIL END OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING FROM TUESDAY. THE DISTURBANCE AND FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE SOUTHWARD, CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. 7 DAY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1.5-2.25" NORTH OF I-85, WITH PROGRESSIVELY
DIMINISHING AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, DOWN TO ABOUT 0.5" IN
EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA. LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE
STRONGER STORMS OCCUR. INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
CONDITIONS INITIALLY VFR WITH DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. EXPECT SCT TO BKN MVFR BY 07-08Z, AND THEN BKN TO OVC IFR
BY 09Z, ACCOMPANIED BY IFR VSBYS IN BR. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PDS
OF LIFR CIGS/VSBYS -- AND PERHAPS ISOLATED VLIFR VSBYS IN DENSE FG.
LIFTING AND SCATTERING WILL CONTINUE THRU MID-MORNING, WITH A
RETURN TO SCT VFR EXPECTED BY 15-16Z. WINDS INITIALLY FAVORING THE
W (AND CALM/VRB AT TIMES) WILL SWING TO THE NNE BY 19-20Z AT
4-7KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE MORNING CEILING PROGRESSION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 57 78 56 74 / 0 0 10 50
ATLANTA 61 78 61 76 / 0 0 20 50
BLAIRSVILLE 52 74 53 69 / 0 0 40 80
CARTERSVILLE 59 80 60 77 / 0 0 30 70
COLUMBUS 61 84 62 85 / 0 0 10 30
GAINESVILLE 58 77 59 72 / 0 0 20 60
MACON 61 81 58 82 / 10 0 0 20
ROME 58 83 61 81 / 0 0 50 80
PEACHTREE CITY 59 80 59 80 / 0 0 20 40
VIDALIA 61 83 57 87 / 10 0 0 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...96
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