399
FXUS62 KFFC 270634
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
234 AM EDT MON APR 27 2026
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA OVER THE NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THIS,
LITTLE TO NO MEANINGFUL IMPROVEMENT TO ONGOING DROUGHT IS
ANTICIPATED.
- SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
- FAIRLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES (70S & 80S) ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK, WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT MON APR 27 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED INTO PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO, WITH THE U-SHAPED ISOBARS
CHARACTERISTIC OF THE WEDGE ADVANCING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEE SIDE
OF THE APPALACHIANS. A GLANCE AT SATELLITE REVEALS CLOUD COVER
WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE EAST, ACCOMPANIED BY A PUSH OF BREEZY
EASTERLY WINDS TO DICTATE THE WEDGE'S ARRIVAL. LOWS THIS MORNING
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA, IN THE LOW-TO-MID 50S. ELSEWHERE, YOU'LL BE WALKING OUT THE
DOOR THIS MORNING TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF WEAK COLD AIR
DAMMING IN TYPICAL AREAS -- GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE METRO --
AND PERHAPS APPRECIABLY SO FOR THE TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA
(WHICH MAY REMAIN IN THE 60S TODAY VS. THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ON
SUNDAY). EVEN SO, WE REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF SEASONAL
NORMS, IN THE MID-70S TO LOWER 80S.
OUR NEXT ROUND OF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE
AFTER DARK MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. NOTABLY, GIVEN PROGGED ORGANIZATION BY
CAMS/HIRES GUIDANCE INTO A QUASI-LINE, POCKETS OF THIS FEATURE
MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTH GEORGIA.
UNCERTAINTY REMAIN REGARDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION, AS SOME
GUIDANCE (NAMELY THE NSSL WRF) SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WHICH COULD IMPACT
THE THEORETICAL CEILING OF THE LATER, STRONG PUSH OUT OF TN.
FURTHER EVALUATION OF TOMORROW'S SEVERE CHANCES FOLLOW IN THE LONG
TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT MON APR 27 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST FEATURES A WEAKENING POLAR JET AND A
RELATIVELY ZONAL SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN
FEATURE OF THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE THE RETURN OF CONSISTENT
RAIN CHANCES NEARLY EVERYDAY NEXT WEEK. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
NOTABLE RAINFALL WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
CONUS. SUBSEQUENT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL DRIVE STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION ACROSS THE STATE. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A RETURN TO PWATS
OVER 1 INCH BY TUESDAY MORNING, SETTING US UP FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN COVERAGE. THAT SAID, CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS MAY BE UNDER-
REPRESENTED IN THE MODELS AND COULD EAT INTO ANY RAINFALL TOTALS.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO GET THE CAMS IN RANGE TO GET A BETTER LOCK ON
QPF, HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY FOR MOST TO GET MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH
IS FAIRLY LOW.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. AMPLE DESTABILIZATION AND LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE IN
PLAY. THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT STALLING. THIS FRONT WILL ACT AS A
FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND COULD
PRODUCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS INCLUDING TUESDAY MORNING, TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST STORM
THREAT LOOKS TO BE IN NORTHERN GEORGIA, WHERE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE. THE FOLLOWING SECTIONS WILL BREAK DOWN THE
CONDITIONS FOR EACH TIMEFRAME.
TUESDAY MORNING: TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY
LIMITED INSTABILITY, HOWEVER AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WE COULD SEE
ANY SELF CONTAINED UPSTREAM COMPLEX WORK ITS WAY DOWN HERE. ANY
SYSTEM THAT FORMS LIKE THIS WILL LIKELY BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN TN AND NORTHERN GA. WE COULD STILL SEE A MINOR WIND
AND HAIL THREAT, GIVEN STRONG LAPSE RATES, HOWEVER A SITUATED WEDGE
MAY KEEP ANY WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE SURFACE.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING: MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY ATTEMPTED
TO FIRE CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHICH DEVELOPS DUE TO ANY
MORNING SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IN THIS DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO LIMITED AS IT
IS SO HEAVILY RELIANT ON DIURNAL HEATING TO TRIGGER ALONG THE WEAK
BOUNDARY, AND DYNAMICS ARE OUT OF PHASE OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. WILL
STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE RELIANT
ON PRIOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE FIRST TWO ROUNDS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM AND
POTENTIALLY DISCRETE CELL FORMATION. EXACT LOCATION WILL DEPEND ON
PRIOR EVENT DEVELOPMENT. ALL THREATS COULD BE IN PLAY WITH STRONGER
STORM DEVELOPMENT.
FURTHER RAINFALL CHANCES CONTINUE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK, HOWEVER ANY CONFIDENCE IN A FORECAST WILL BE LOW/DEPENDENT ON
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY FEATURE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM, BUT COMFORTABLE, REACHING FROM THE
MID 70S TO THE UPPER 80S. LOOKING FURTHER OUT, TO THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE ATLANTIC, WHICH WOULD SUGGEST FURTHER
POTENTIAL COOLING FOR NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN, THIS WILL LIKELY BE A
WAITING GAME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT MON APR 27 2026
PRIMARILY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD. A PUSH OF SCT TO
PERHAPS BKN MVFR WILL OCCUR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK,
GIVING WAY TO FEW-SCT AFTN CU AT 4-6KFT BY 14-15Z. LOWER CIG
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY E WINDS AT 9-12KTS WITH
OCNL GUSTS TO 20KTS. SLACKENING TO 7-9KTS EXPECTED BY 18-19Z. LATE
PD WILL SEE A RETURN TO CHCS FOR SHRA (AND MORE THAN LIKELY TSRA),
CURRENTLY CAPTURED BY A PROB30 FROM 10-12Z TUESDAY MORNING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TIMING OF LATE PERIOD RAIN CHANCES.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 76 52 77 61 / 0 10 30 70
ATLANTA 79 59 79 64 / 0 20 40 80
BLAIRSVILLE 73 51 70 57 / 0 30 60 90
CARTERSVILLE 80 57 79 61 / 0 30 50 90
COLUMBUS 82 59 85 64 / 0 10 20 60
GAINESVILLE 75 55 74 62 / 0 20 40 80
MACON 79 54 84 63 / 0 0 10 50
ROME 81 59 80 63 / 0 40 60 90
PEACHTREE CITY 80 56 82 62 / 0 10 30 80
VIDALIA 80 54 87 64 / 0 0 0 30
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...96
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