408
FXUS62 KFFC 271848
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
248 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA OVER THE NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THIS,
LITTLE TO NO MEANINGFUL IMPROVEMENT TO ONGOING DROUGHT IS
ANTICIPATED.
- SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
- FAIRLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES (70S & 80S) ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ATLANTIC CANADA AND
STRETCHING SOUTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS INTO NORTH GEORGIA REMAINS
IN PLACE THIS EVENING. THIS IS PROMOTING STABLE CONDITIONS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S TO NEAR 60.
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, INSTABILITY PUSHES INTO NORTH GEORGIA AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER NORTH GEORGIA AND
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS LIMITED AGREEMENT
ON THE STRENGTH OF THESE SHOWERS AND THEIR TIMING, BUT IT'S LIKELY
TO BE EARLY MORNING INTO MIDDAY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO WEAKEN, AND
DECREASE IN GEOGRAPHIC COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE FURTHER INTO GEORGIA.
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH A HIGHER RISK OVER NW GA.
A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
ON TUESDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OVER
THE STATE. THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS FROM MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF THE 90TH PERCENTILE (WHICH IS
AROUND 1.6 INCHES FOR APRIL 28/29). SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED LATE TOMORROW NIGHT, AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL, WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDERSTORM RISK DOES
DECREASE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS GEORGIA. POPS
OVERNIGHT ARE IN EXCESS OF 80% FOR MOST OF THE ATLANTA METRO AND
NORTHWARD.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE THE RETURN OF
CONSISTENT RAIN CHANCES NEARLY EVERYDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
GREATEST CHANCES FOR NOTABLE RAINFALL WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. SUBSEQUENT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL DRIVE
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE STATE.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY. AMPLE
DESTABILIZATION AND LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE IN PLAY. THE MAIN
FEATURE TO WATCH WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AND
SUBSEQUENT STALLING. THIS FRONT WILL ACT AS A FOCAL POINT FOR
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND COULD PRODUCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS.
THE GREATEST STORM THREAT LOOKS TO BE IN NORTHERN GEORGIA, WHERE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING: MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY ATTEMPTED
TO FIRE CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHICH DEVELOPS DUE TO ANY
MORNING SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IN THIS DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO LIMITED AS IT
IS SO HEAVILY RELIANT ON DIURNAL HEATING TO TRIGGER ALONG THE WEAK
BOUNDARY, AND DYNAMICS ARE OUT OF PHASE OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. WILL
STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE RELIANT
ON PRIOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE FIRST TWO ROUNDS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM AND
POTENTIALLY DISCRETE CELL FORMATION. EXACT LOCATION WILL DEPEND ON
PRIOR EVENT DEVELOPMENT. ALL THREATS COULD BE IN PLAY WITH STRONGER
STORM DEVELOPMENT.
BY THU/FRI THE WAVE/FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH INTO NORTH FL WITH
THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT STILL ACROSS AL/MS. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER
WAVE TO PUSH EAST OUT OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO WEST GA BY FRI
MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL BE ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT WHICH TURN INTO A WARM FRONT AS IT PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE
WEEKEND. A CLOSED LOW CENTER DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT ACROSS MS AND
MOVES EAST ACROSS AL AND INTO GA BY DAYBREAK SAT. THIS FINAL LOW
CENTER PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE WITH THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXITING THE AREA BY DAYBREAK SUN.
NOW...WITH ALL THIS IN MIND NORTH AND CENTRAL GA WILL BE SEEING A
LOT OF PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE A 7 DAY PRECIP TOTAL IN THE 1" TO 2"
RANGE. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH GA (NORTH OF THE
ATL AREA) THAT SEE PRECIP TOTALS IN THE 2" TO 3" RANGE. THESE ARE
DEFINITELY MUCH NEEDED PRECIP TOTALS BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH TO GET US
OUT OF OUR DROUGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM, BUT COMFORTABLE, REACHING FROM THE
MID 70S TO THE UPPER 80S. LOOKING FURTHER OUT, TO THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE ATLANTIC, WHICH WOULD SUGGEST FURTHER
POTENTIAL COOLING FOR NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN, THIS WILL LIKELY BE A
WAITING GAME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
PATCHES OF CLOUD W/ BASES 020-030 OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT; A CU FIELD WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TOMORROW MORNING, SHOWERS ARE LIKELY,
PARTICULARLY OVER NW GA INTO ATLANTA METRO; EMBEDDED TS ARE
POSSIBLE. MVFR IS LIKELY WITH/BEHIND PCPN. IFR IS EXPECTED FOR AHN,
AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR ALL OTHER TAF SITES. ESE WINDS CONTINUE,
VEERING GRADUALLY, BECOMING S/SSE AROUND 14-17Z TOMORROW.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS THROUGH 28/10Z, THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON
CIGS/VIS/TS/TS TIMING
CRS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 53 76 61 79 / 10 40 80 80
ATLANTA 58 79 64 79 / 20 40 90 70
BLAIRSVILLE 51 69 56 73 / 40 60 90 90
CARTERSVILLE 57 79 61 79 / 30 50 90 80
COLUMBUS 58 84 64 85 / 10 30 70 50
GAINESVILLE 55 74 62 78 / 20 50 90 80
MACON 53 83 63 84 / 0 20 60 50
ROME 58 80 63 82 / 50 60 90 90
PEACHTREE CITY 55 80 61 81 / 10 40 80 60
VIDALIA 53 87 64 87 / 0 10 20 40
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CRS
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...CRS
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