199
FXUS62 KFFC 280544
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
144 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA OVER THE NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THIS,
LITTLE TO NO MEANINGFUL IMPROVEMENT TO ONGOING DROUGHT IS
ANTICIPATED.
- SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY MORNING
AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN THREATS
BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND ISOLATED SPIN UP TORNADO.
- FAIRLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES (70S & 80S) ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ATLANTIC CANADA AND
STRETCHING SOUTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS INTO NORTH GEORGIA REMAINS
IN PLACE THIS EVENING. THIS IS PROMOTING STABLE CONDITIONS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S TO NEAR 60.
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, INSTABILITY PUSHES INTO NORTH GEORGIA AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER NORTH GEORGIA AND
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS LIMITED AGREEMENT
ON THE STRENGTH OF THESE SHOWERS AND THEIR TIMING, BUT IT'S LIKELY
TO BE EARLY MORNING INTO MIDDAY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO WEAKEN, AND
DECREASE IN GEOGRAPHIC COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE FURTHER INTO GEORGIA.
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH A HIGHER RISK OVER NW GA.
A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
ON TUESDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OVER
THE STATE. THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS FROM MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF THE 90TH PERCENTILE (WHICH IS
AROUND 1.6 INCHES FOR APRIL 28/29). SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED LATE TOMORROW NIGHT, AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL, WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDERSTORM RISK DOES
DECREASE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS GEORGIA. POPS
OVERNIGHT ARE IN EXCESS OF 80% FOR MOST OF THE ATLANTA METRO AND
NORTHWARD.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE THE RETURN OF
CONSISTENT RAIN CHANCES NEARLY EVERYDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
GREATEST CHANCES FOR NOTABLE RAINFALL WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. SUBSEQUENT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL DRIVE
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE STATE.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY. AMPLE
DESTABILIZATION AND LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE IN PLAY. THE MAIN
FEATURE TO WATCH WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AND
SUBSEQUENT STALLING. THIS FRONT WILL ACT AS A FOCAL POINT FOR
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND COULD PRODUCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS.
THE GREATEST STORM THREAT LOOKS TO BE IN NORTHERN GEORGIA, WHERE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING: MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY ATTEMPTED
TO FIRE CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHICH DEVELOPS DUE TO ANY
MORNING SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IN THIS DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO LIMITED AS IT
IS SO HEAVILY RELIANT ON DIURNAL HEATING TO TRIGGER ALONG THE WEAK
BOUNDARY, AND DYNAMICS ARE OUT OF PHASE OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. WILL
STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE RELIANT
ON PRIOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE FIRST TWO ROUNDS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM AND
POTENTIALLY DISCRETE CELL FORMATION. EXACT LOCATION WILL DEPEND ON
PRIOR EVENT DEVELOPMENT. ALL THREATS COULD BE IN PLAY WITH STRONGER
STORM DEVELOPMENT.
BY THU/FRI THE WAVE/FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH INTO NORTH FL WITH
THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT STILL ACROSS AL/MS. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER
WAVE TO PUSH EAST OUT OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO WEST GA BY FRI
MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL BE ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT WHICH TURN INTO A WARM FRONT AS IT PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE
WEEKEND. A CLOSED LOW CENTER DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT ACROSS MS AND
MOVES EAST ACROSS AL AND INTO GA BY DAYBREAK SAT. THIS FINAL LOW
CENTER PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE WITH THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXITING THE AREA BY DAYBREAK SUN.
NOW...WITH ALL THIS IN MIND NORTH AND CENTRAL GA WILL BE SEEING A
LOT OF PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE A 7 DAY PRECIP TOTAL IN THE 1" TO 2"
RANGE. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH GA (NORTH OF THE
ATL AREA) THAT SEE PRECIP TOTALS IN THE 2" TO 3" RANGE. THESE ARE
DEFINITELY MUCH NEEDED PRECIP TOTALS BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH TO GET US
OUT OF OUR DROUGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM, BUT COMFORTABLE, REACHING FROM THE
MID 70S TO THE UPPER 80S. LOOKING FURTHER OUT, TO THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE ATLANTIC, WHICH WOULD SUGGEST FURTHER
POTENTIAL COOLING FOR NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN, THIS WILL LIKELY BE A
WAITING GAME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
TRICKY TAF PD WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED. CONDS
INITIALLY VFR WILL DETERIORATE TO BKN LOW-VFR TO MVFR BY 10-11Z
WITH ARRIVAL OF FIRST WAVE OF PCPN. CHCS FOR AM -TSRA WILL PEAK
BETWEEN 11 AND 14Z FOR NORTHERN TAF SITES, AND -SHRA IS POSSIBLE
OFF AN ON BEGINNING 10Z WELL INTO EARLY AFTN (18-19Z). CANNOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF PD OF IFR BETWEEN 14 AND 18Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION. A RETURN TO 3-5KFT CIGS IS EXPECTED FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTN. -SHRA, AND BKN TO OVC MVFR CIGS, WILL
RETURN LATE PD, WITH YET ANOTHER CHC FOR- TSRA FROM 05/06Z-11Z.
ANY PCPN MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR VSBYS IN BR. WINDS INITIALLY
SE AT 4-8KTS WILL SWING TO THE SW BY 18-19Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 61 79 57 76 / 90 70 30 20
ATLANTA 64 79 58 74 / 90 60 30 10
BLAIRSVILLE 56 73 49 69 / 90 90 20 10
CARTERSVILLE 61 79 52 74 / 90 80 30 10
COLUMBUS 64 85 61 79 / 70 40 50 30
GAINESVILLE 62 78 57 74 / 90 80 20 10
MACON 63 84 61 79 / 70 40 50 30
ROME 63 82 54 74 / 80 80 30 10
PEACHTREE CITY 61 81 56 76 / 90 60 40 20
VIDALIA 64 87 65 82 / 40 30 40 40
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CRS
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...96
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