200
FXUS62 KFFC 290722
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
322 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION, LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL TO ROUND
OFF THE WEEK, WITH A COOLDOWN (HIGHS IN THE 60S) THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
WITH ZONAL FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ALOFT, SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
MIDDAY THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DICTATED BY INTERPLAY BETWEEN
ANY DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING OUR OTHERWISE TRANQUIL MID-LEVEL FLOW
AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PRIOR ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION/ APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.
THIS MORNING: AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS ONGOING ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN
CWA, AND WILL TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED SEVERE-WARNED THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EASTWARD
OUT OF THE ARKLAMISS HAS BEGUN TO BREACH GEORGIA FROM THE WEST,
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AS IT GOES. THANKS TO HOURS OF REINFORCING
RAINFALL INTO THE LINGERING WEDGE AIRMASS YESTERDAY, THE ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS OUR AREA HAS REMAINED REMARKABLY STABLE (AS EVIDENCED BY THE
INVERSION AT 850MB ON LAST NIGHT'S 00Z SOUNDING). HRRR/HREF/ARW
GUIDANCE CORROBORATES THIS TREND CONTINUING THROUGH DAYBREAK, AND
PARCELS (AND THEREFORE ANY STORMS THAT TREK ACROSS THE AREA) WILL
REMAIN LARGELY DECOUPLED FROM THE SURFACE. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 100-300 J/KG IS POSSIBLE, AND WOULD PRIMARILY ALLOW FOR
ELEVATED STORMS TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER
AND BREEZY WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH
SUNRISE, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO LINGERING THROUGH MID-MORNING
-- THOUGH PATCHY IN NATURE.
THIS AFTERNOON: DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE, NAMELY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE METRO. FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME ARE LARGELY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH, WITH MOST
OF TODAY'S ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BEFORE SUNRISE. HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON HOW SOCKED IN WE REMAIN THROUGH
PEAK HEATING. ASSUMING A DRIER MORNING AND AFTERNOON, HIGHS IN THE
MID- 70S TO UPPER-80S ARE POSSIBLE, BUT DREARIER CONDITIONS WOULD
HAMPER WARMING, LIKELY KEEPING MOST IN THE LOWER 70S TO PERHAPS
LOWER 80S.
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY: A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ZIPPER EASTWARD
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST,
SUPPORTING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF QUASI-ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
DARK. HIRES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PUSH WILL MOVE ENE OUT OF ALABAMA
LATE THIS EVENING. A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK HAS BEEN
ANALYZED FOR AREAS ROUGHLY MIDWAY BETWEEN THE ATLANTA METRO AND
COLUMBUS AND POINTS FURTHER SOUTH. THE AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO BE
INCREMENTALLY MORE MOIST (DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-60S, PERHAPS A TICK
HIGHER), AND THUS MORE THERMODYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
MAINTENANCE (MOST UNSTABLE CAPE UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG). NOTABLY,
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE SURFACE-BASED AT THIS TIME TOMORROW. WITH
SIMULATED SOUNDINGS SHOWING STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS, A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST PULSES.
RELATIVELY LOW-END (15-25%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY FOR AREAS IN THE CLOSEST
VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONTAL FORCING, WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA DRYING OUT ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85, AND IN THE MID-70S TO NEAR 80 FURTHER
SOUTH.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
COOL AND RAINY START TO THE WEEKEND:
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL FEATURE PRIMARILY DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS IN OUR AREA AS A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITS
ACROSS SOUTHERN GA, WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. FRIDAY
MORNING LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY THE
AFTERNOON UNDER OVERCAST SKIES. THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL
BE A SIGNAL OF WHATS TO COME, AS STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKES
PLACE THROUGHOUT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT TURN OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE COMBINATION OF
TWO SHORTWAVES APPROACHING THE AREA, ONE SLIDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY, AND ANOTHER DROPPING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE TN VALLEY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PUMP A VERY MOIST AIRMASS FROM THE GULF UP OVER THE SHALLOW COOL
AIRMASS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (HELLO
ISENTROPIC LIFT), RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THERE IS
STILL A MODERATE AMOUNT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES, WHICH WILL HEAVILY
INFLUENCE THE AMOUNTS AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL. IF YOU TAKE THE
CONSENSUS OF THE ENSEMBLE DATA, WE ARE LOOKING AT A MUCH NEEDED 1-
2 INCHES OR MORE OF RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FROM FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH MID-DAY SATURDAY. WHEN LOOKING AT SOME OF THE
POTENTIAL HIGH END RAINFALL AMOUNTS (1 IN 10 CHANCE), MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SOME POCKETS OF 3-4 INCHES. STAY TUNED FOR MORE
UPDATES ON THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AS THERE IS STILL QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR BEING ONLY 72-84 HOURS OUT.
DRY WITH A WARMING TREND SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK:
BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY, DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN
A DRY AND INITIALLY COOL AIRMASS FOR SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN
NORTH GA, AND LOW TO MID 70S IN CENTRAL GA. THE AIRMASS REMAINS
DRY ON MONDAY, BUT THE TEMPERATURES MODERATE, CLIMBING FROM THE
LOW TO MID 40S AGAIN IN THE MORNING, TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
THE AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY, MODEL AGREEMENT STARTS TO DROP OFF,
BUT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME SIGNAL FOR LOW END RAIN CHANCES TO
RETURN, ESPECIALLY IN NORTH GA AS A SHORTWAVE MAY DROP ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF -SHRA AND -TSRA EXP THRU THE AM. -SHRA WILL
PICK UP ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT HOUR, WITH BEST
CHCS FOR -TSRA BETWEEN NOW AND 10Z. EXP PCPN TO LINGER THRU MID-
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING, AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR VSBYS
IN BR. CHCS FOR -SHRA (AND -TSRA FOR CSG/MCN) RETURNS LATE PD,
GENERALLY AFT 04-05Z THURSDAY AM. BKN TO OVC MVFR TO PREVAIL INTO
THE AFTN, WITH LIFTING TO SCT TO BKN LOW- VFR AFT 18Z. SCT PDS OF
IFR CIGS ARE PSBL, AND CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF BKN IFR (CONF TOO
LOW FOR TAF MENTION). WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE W (INITIALLY
SW, SWINGING NW AFT 00Z), ELEVATED AT 5-12KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS TO
20-22KTS -- ESP IN VC OF PCPN.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 77 57 76 52 / 70 30 10 10
ATLANTA 78 58 73 55 / 50 30 10 20
BLAIRSVILLE 71 49 68 45 / 70 20 10 10
CARTERSVILLE 78 52 72 50 / 60 20 10 10
COLUMBUS 83 61 76 55 / 40 60 40 20
GAINESVILLE 75 57 74 52 / 70 20 10 10
MACON 83 61 77 54 / 50 50 30 20
ROME 79 54 73 49 / 60 20 10 10
PEACHTREE CITY 79 56 74 51 / 50 30 20 20
VIDALIA 87 65 80 59 / 30 40 40 20
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....CULVER
AVIATION...96
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