161
FXUS62 KFFC 170545
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
145 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
WIND AND HAIL.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
- HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN FROM MID TO LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
DRY AND WARM TODAY:
IT WILL BE ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF PLEASANT CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE ATLANTIC, AND A LINGERING DRY AIRMASS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE LOW TO MID 80S IN NORTH
GA, WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN CENTRAL GA. SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY, WITH ONLY SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARMER WITH POTENTIALLY STRONG AFTERNOON STORMS ON SUNDAY:
LOW-LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN AND TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC, WHICH WILL
BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. COMPARED TO TODAY,
DEWPOINTS SOAR FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S, WITH PWAT VALUES
GOING FROM UNDER 1" TO AROUND 1.4-1.6", BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES (NEAR 7 DEGC/KM)
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SUMMER-LIKE INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
AROUND 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE. THE BUILDING RIDGE / HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF TO OUR EAST WILL TRY ITS HARDEST TO KEEP THINGS
SUPPRESSED, BUT ANYWHERE WE GET SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE COULD
SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS RAPIDLY DEVELOP. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR
THIS WOULD BE ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE IN EAST-CENTRAL GA, BUT THIS
COULD ALSO HAPPEN ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GA WHERE
SUBTLE TERRAIN-INDUCED CONVERGENCE LINES FORM. WHILE WIND SHEAR
WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK, WE COULD STILL SEE SOME STRONG TO NEAR
SEVERE PULSE-TYPE STORMS DUE TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY TO
DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL UP TO QUARTER-SIZE, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
THE RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELD WILL LEAD TO SLOW STORM MOTIONS, AT
AROUND 10-20 MPH MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH, RESULTING IN LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. BEFORE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN THE OFFING THROUGH THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD, OFFERING OPPORTUNITIES FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.
INITIALLY, RELATIVELY BENIGN AND OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE RULE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
PREVAILS. TEMPERATURES EACH OF THESE DAYS WILL RUN GENERALLY 5-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
BY WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
REGION, THOUGH PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW AS UPPER WAVES SKIRT WELL TO
THE NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT
WILL BRING AN INITIAL INCREASE IN POPS ACROSS PRIMARILY NORTH
GEORGIA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LITTLE IMPETUS FOR FORWARD
PROGRESS, THE FRONT LOOKS TO BECOME STATIONARY, KEEPING DIURNALLY-
ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY FROM
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT,
NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED, THOUGH PWATS IN THE
1.5-2" RANGE WOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
BKN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SOME SCT IFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z, BUT WILL RISE BACK INTO VFR SOMETIME AFTER
14Z. ISOLATE TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 18Z. WINDS
WILL REMAIN SE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT LESS THAN 10KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TSRA CHANCES.
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
VAUGHN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 64 89 63 89 / 10 0 0 0
ATLANTA 66 87 66 87 / 20 10 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 61 82 60 83 / 20 10 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 64 88 65 88 / 20 20 0 0
COLUMBUS 65 90 66 90 / 30 10 0 0
GAINESVILLE 65 86 64 86 / 20 10 0 0
MACON 65 90 63 90 / 30 0 0 0
ROME 63 88 63 88 / 20 20 10 0
PEACHTREE CITY 64 88 64 88 / 30 10 0 0
VIDALIA 66 90 64 91 / 10 0 0 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CULVER
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...VAUGHN
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