296
FXUS62 KFFC 171708
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
108 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
WIND AND HAIL.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S.
- HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN FROM MID TO LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO THE
AREA FOR TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DRIVE MOISTURE VALUES AND
INSTABILITY UP THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA UP THE I-75 CORRIDOR. MUCAPE
VALUES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG WILL BUILD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MOST
HIGH-RES MODELS ARE INDICATING DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BEGINNING SOUTH OF MACON. FROM THERE, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES GIVEN HOW UNSTABLE THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY BE.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S WILL FEED THE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT (7C/KM), THE
HAIL RISK IS AT LEAST POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN NICKLE TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
FORTUNATELY, THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY ONCE
THE SUN GOES DOWN. WHILE MONDAY IS LOOKING JUST AS WARM, THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH MEANDERS NORTH.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
AS THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS ON MONDAY EVENING, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING FROM THE EASTERN CONUS INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDERNEATH WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS LARGELY DRY AND BENIGN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE WILL BE CLOSER TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE, UNDERNEATH STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW AND
COMPARATIVELY GREATER MOISTURE. THUS, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
STATE WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE REGIME WILL BE
WEAKEST. LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. ASIDE FROM SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DAMPEN AS IT CONTINUES FURTHER
EAST. AS THIS OCCURS, A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE FROM THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. WEAK DISTURBANCES
TRAVERSING THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL
GIVE THE FRONT AN ADDITIONAL NUDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE PRESENCE OF THE
FRONT WILL BRING AN INITIAL INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES, WITH LIKELY POPS IN NORTH GEORGIA AND CHANCE POPS IN
CENTRAL GEORGIA BY THE AFTERNOON. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES
MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SLOW TO A
CRAWL AS IT MEANDERS SOUTHWARD. THE LINGERING PRESENCE OF THE
FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS ENHANCED COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, LARGELY IN NORTH
GEORGIA EACH DAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH
0-1 KM SHEAR WEAKENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER, DEWPOINTS
RISING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S EACH DAY WILL SUPPORT AMPLE INSTABILITY, SO
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS DEWPOINTS
CLIMB, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 1.5-1.8
INCH BY FRIDAY. AS SUCH, STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
CU FIELDS AT 4-6KFT STARTING TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. OUTSIDE OF IMPACTS FROM POTENTIAL SHRA/TSRA, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF LOW CIGS TO DEVELOP AROUND 09-14Z MONDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THAT IS MEDIUM AT BEST, AND WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON RAINFALL
FROM THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS S TO SE AT 6-10KTS THROUGH THE EVENING,
BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND RETURNING TO 6-10 KTS ON MONDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM IN TSRA TIMING AND CHANCES. MEDIUM IN MONDAY AM CIGS.
HIGH ON ALL OTHERS.
CULVER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 89 64 89 63 / 20 10 0 0
ATLANTA 88 67 87 66 / 40 20 10 0
BLAIRSVILLE 83 61 82 60 / 30 20 10 0
CARTERSVILLE 89 65 88 65 / 40 20 20 0
COLUMBUS 91 66 90 66 / 30 30 10 0
GAINESVILLE 87 65 87 64 / 30 20 10 0
MACON 90 65 90 63 / 50 30 0 0
ROME 89 63 88 64 / 30 20 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 89 64 88 64 / 50 30 10 0
VIDALIA 91 66 91 64 / 40 10 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VAUGHN
LONG TERM....KING
AVIATION...CULVER
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