244
FXUS62 KFFC 171814
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
214 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY
STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S.
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES RETURN FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING:
A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS ON TAP ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA AS A WARM, HUMID, AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. AS OF THIS WRITING, CUMULUS FIELDS HAVE
ALREADY STARTED TO BUILD ALONG BOUNDARIES OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS. THESE WILL INITIALLY BE
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED, BUT THAT
WILL CHANGE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS HEATING/MIXING PEAKS. BASED
ON THE LATEST SOUNDINGS AND OBSERVATIONS, CAPE VALUES WILL PEAK
AT OVER 2000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH DCAPE VALUES
OF AROUND OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG, AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7
DEGC/KM. WIND SHEAR IS VERY WEAK TO NON-EXISTENT, SO STORMS WILL
BE PULSE-Y AND RATHER SHORT-LIVED, BUT GIVEN THE STRONG
INSTABILITY SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, UP TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY WITH HOW SLOW STORMS MAY BE MOVING (SOUTH TO NORTH AT
AROUND 10 MPH). WITH NO STRONG SOURCE OF FORCING, COVERAGE OF
STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED AT MOST, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEING
ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE IN EAST-CENTRAL GA. STILL, STORMS COULD BE A
THREAT FOR ANY PORTION OF OUR AREA GIVEN THE NATURAL DIURNAL
BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM COLLAPSING
SHOWERS/STORMS. AFTER SUNSET CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. BEFORE THAT, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WARM AND DRY ON MONDAY:
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, A DRIER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM OVER THE ATLANTIC, PLUMMETING PWAT VALUES TO UNDER 1" DURING
THE DAY (WE'RE AT AROUND 1.5" TODAY). THIS WILL PREVENT ANY THREAT
FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS, EXCEPT FOR IN FAR NW GEORGIA WHERE ENOUGH
MOISTURE MAY LINGER TO SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB FROM THE 60S IN
THE MORNING, TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
INITIAL RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ON TUESDAY KEEPS THINGS
DRY AND WARM, BUT THE FORECAST WILL BE TRENDING TOWARD A MORE
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL THEREAFTER.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD FAR NORTH GEORGIA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
RELEGATED TO THESE AREAS IN PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL FORCING WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS INITIALLY FAVORED FARTHER SOUTHEAST.
THE FRONT MAKES ONLY LIMITED SOUTHWARD PROGRESS BY THURSDAY INTO
NORTH GEORGIA AS UPPER SUPPORT DEPARTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. AS SUCH, DIURNALLY-ENHANCED POPS SHOULD
AGAIN BE HIGHEST ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. FLOW ALOFT THEN
TRANSITIONS INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY LATE WEEK AS THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY. WEAK SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY WITH THE
AID OF DIURNAL HEATING. COVERAGE AGAIN WILL LIKELY BE HIGHEST
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LOW GIVEN THE
SUMMER-LIKE WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, A COUPLE OF STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CERTAINLY CAN'T BE RULED OUT. WHILE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, THE LACK OF A WIDESPREAD
AND PERSISTENT SOAKING RAINFALL WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL IMPACT ON
THE DROUGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON THE WARMEST DAYS AND LOWS
IN THE 60S), THOUGH MARGINALLY COOLER HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
WEEK GIVEN INCREASED CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
CU FIELDS AT 4-6KFT STARTING TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. OUTSIDE OF IMPACTS FROM POTENTIAL SHRA/TSRA, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF LOW CIGS TO DEVELOP AROUND 09-14Z MONDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THAT IS MEDIUM AT BEST, AND WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON RAINFALL
FROM THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS S TO SE AT 6-10KTS THROUGH THE EVENING,
BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND RETURNING TO 6-10 KTS ON MONDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM IN TSRA TIMING AND CHANCES. MEDIUM IN MONDAY AM CIGS.
HIGH ON ALL OTHERS.
CULVER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 64 89 63 89 / 10 0 0 0
ATLANTA 67 87 66 87 / 20 10 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 61 82 60 83 / 20 10 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 65 88 65 89 / 20 20 0 0
COLUMBUS 66 90 66 90 / 30 10 0 0
GAINESVILLE 65 87 64 86 / 20 10 0 0
MACON 65 90 63 90 / 30 0 0 0
ROME 63 88 64 88 / 20 20 10 0
PEACHTREE CITY 64 88 64 88 / 30 10 0 0
VIDALIA 66 91 64 91 / 10 0 0 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CULVER
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...CULVER
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