984
FXUS62 KFFC 200857
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
457 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
- AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-85 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES RETURN TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN GEORGIA.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH SW WINDS AT 5-10 MPH BRINING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA. AS A RESULT, DEWPOINTS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL
INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE TN RIVER
VALLEY AREA.THIS WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCE FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR POP UP STORMS APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85.
A FEW STORMS MAY HAVE GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL
BUT THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF SHEAR
AND ANY LIFTING MECHANISM OUTSIDE OF HEATING.
STORMS WILL DIE OUT AS THE SUN SETS AND TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID
60S AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR,
ALTHOUGH WE'RE ANTICIPATING A WIDER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN GA AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
STALLS OUT ALONG THE GA/TN BORDER. LIKE TODAY, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TOMORROW WILL BE LOW THOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
THE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE LONG TERM OUTLOOK AS
NEAR SURFACE FLOW TURNS FROM NORTHEAST, AROUND THE COASTAL LOW, TO
THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE
AREA WITH 50TH PERCENTILE PWATS CLIMBING OVER 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES BY
THE WEEKEND. AS CONDITIONS MOISTEN, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S TO NEAR 90F. THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SEND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS MEANS POPS AND
QPF WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA, DECREASING
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE GIVEN THUNDERSTORM MODE WILL BE CONDUCIVE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT IS LIKELY THAT SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA
WILL SEE MORE THAN 1" OF RAINFALL EACH DAY. THIS, HOWEVER, WILL BE
CONTRASTED BY AREAS WHICH SIMULTANEOUSLY RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION. A BOOM OR BUST SCENARIO IF YOU WILL. ALL THAT SAID,
IT IS UNLIKELY THAT ANYONE WILL GO WITHOUT AT LEAST SOME RAIN ONCE
THE END OF THIS PERIOD CONCLUDES. STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
REMAINS MODEST FOR PULSE CONVECTION, WITH INSTABILITY PEAKING AROUND
1500 TO 2500 J/KG. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE FULLY RULED OUT AT
THIS TIME. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SHOULD STORM
MOTION BE PARTICULARLY SLOW.
AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPERIENCES A ROSSBY
WAVE BREAK. THIS COULD QUICKLY TURN FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. WHEN
COMBINING THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE, DAYTIME INSTABILITY, AND UPPER
LEVEL NW FLOW, CONDITIONS MAY BE PRIMED FOR A MORE CLASSIC
SUMMERTIME MCS SET-UP (I'M LOOKING AT YOU SUMMER 2023 0-0). MODELS,
OF COURSE, HAVE A HARD TIME REALIZING THESE TYPES OF SCENARIOS THIS
FAR OUT AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE MORE THAN 6-7 DAYS OUT REMAINS
RELATIVELY LOW. JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR AS WE GET
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
VFR START TO THE TAFS. CEILINGS WILL BECOME BKN AFTER 14Z WITH A
SCT CU FIELD AT 4-5K FT. BETWEEN 19-00Z, THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE
FOR TSRA. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE, WILL KEEP A PROB30 RATHER THAN
ISSUE A TEMPO GROUP. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES,
BUT A WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SE TO THE SW
AFTER 14Z
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO LOW ON TSRA.
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
VAUGHN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 92 67 89 66 / 10 10 60 50
ATLANTA 89 69 86 68 / 30 40 70 50
BLAIRSVILLE 85 62 80 61 / 40 40 80 80
CARTERSVILLE 89 65 85 66 / 50 50 80 60
COLUMBUS 91 68 90 68 / 30 30 20 20
GAINESVILLE 88 67 85 66 / 30 30 80 70
MACON 91 68 91 68 / 10 10 40 30
ROME 88 63 84 64 / 50 40 80 70
PEACHTREE CITY 89 66 87 66 / 40 30 60 40
VIDALIA 92 68 92 69 / 0 0 20 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VAUGHN
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...VAUGHN
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