020
FXUS62 KFFC 080527
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
127 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO
PORTIONS OF NORTH AND WESTERN GA TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. SLOW
STORM MOTION AND TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL
RATES OF 2-3"+ OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH GA.
- WHILE NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
MOIST SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED. SOUTHERLY FLOW DROVE
PWATS ON THE 12Z SOUNDING TO 1.87" (WELL OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE
FOR CLIMOTOLOGIC SOUNDING DATA). THE SURFACE INVERSION THIS MORNING
MEANT SFCCAPE WAS 0, HOWEVER AN MUCAPE OF 950J/KG AT 973MB INDICATES
THE LITTLE MIXING NEEDED TO GET CONVECTION MOVING. CLOUD COVER
CURRENTLY COVERS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE IN A THICK MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK AND RAIN HAS BEGUN ALONG THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN AL AND SOUTH MIDDLE TN,
WHERE SIGNIFICANT TRAINING HAS OCCURRED RESULTING IN FLASH
FLOODING. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A TONGUE OF STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA. UPWIND PROPAGATION
VECTORS ARE MOSTLY PERPENDICULAR/COUNTER-TO THIS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT LEADING TO TRAINING HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MAIN THING TO
WATCH OVER THE COMING HOURS IS HOW THIS AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
SHIFTS EASTWARD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS AXIS TO SLOWLY
MOVE INTO NORTH GA AND COULD POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER THE
COMING HOURS.
TAKING A LOOK AT UPPER LEVEL FLOW, RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
HAS BEGUN TO BE UNDERCUT BY THE EJECTING SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
FOR THE BEST LOOK AT THIS FEATURE SEE 500MB VORTICITY AND 2PVU
SURFACE. AS THE FEATURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH (CURRENTLY OVER
TX/OK), EXPECT INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD AS THE
RIDGE IS LOCALLY WEAKENED. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CLIMBING
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES, WITH HIGH ENSEMBLE CERTAINTY IN PWATS OF
~2". THIS WOULD BE NEAR THE MAX FOR THE DAY'S CLIMOTOLOGIC SOUNDINGS
DATA. GIVEN THE POOR UPPER LEVEL STEERING THROUGH THE COMING DAYS,
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM MAY BE SLOW MOVING, TRAINING,
EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS, AND THUS POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THIS
EXPLAINS THE SLIGHT-MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE
WPC. THE MEAN STORM MODE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES, WILL SEE SHOWERS SPREADING OVER NORTH GEORGIA TODAY (OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST). PRECIP WILL TAPER OVERNIGHT AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY
WEAKENS, BEFORE SEEING FURTHER SURGES GOING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONGSIDE DIURNAL HEATING. LIGHTNING WILL BE SPOTTY WITHIN
THE SHOWERS.
MEAN QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD SITS AROUND 1 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA (T-1" ACROSS CENTRAL GA). GIVEN THE PRECIP MODE, HOWEVER, A
FEW POCKETS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY HEAVIER RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.
ENSEMBLE 10TH-90TH PERCENTILE SHOWS SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
GEORGIA (ESPECIALLY AROUND THE MOUNTAINS) AS HIGH AS 4+ INCHES. THIS
IS LIKELY A PRODUCT OF MODELS STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE MESSY AND
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION WITH OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE AND/OR TRAINING
COVECTION POTENTIAL. THAT SAID, WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF A FEW
POCKETS SAW AS MUCH AS 4"+ THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OUR TWO. ANOTHER
FACTOR TO TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION IS THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVERAGE
AND RAIN'S EFFECT ON INSTABILITY. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS
SOME INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE FURTHER SOUTH (TOWARDS THE ATL METRO) WHERE
GREATER INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP, AND THUS RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DOWN TOWARDS THE METRO.
IN SHORT (THROUGH MONDAY), EXPECT AROUND 1" TO 2.5" ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA (INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS AND TOWARDS THE NORTH METRO), BEING
PREPARED SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY MORE FALL. T-1" IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA, WITH A LOWER CHANCE OF 2"+. THIS PATTERN WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. BE AWARE OF AREAS WHICH MAY RECEIVE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TWO DAYS IN A ROW AS THESE AREAS WILL BE MORE
PRONE TO FLOODING. AT THIS TIME, THE FLASH FLOODING RAIN THREAT
REMAINS TOO UNCERTAIN/ISOLATED TO WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MODERATED BY THE CLOUD
COVERAGE AND RAINFALL. HIGHS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE AROUND 80
WITH LOWS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
WE PICK UP THE LONG TERM ON TUESDAY WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER
RAINY AND WET DAY SOME ACROSS NORTH AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.
COMPARED TO MANY OF THE ENSEMBLE RUNS YESTERDAY, MODELS HAVE
ACTUALLY PICKED UP ON A LARGER CHUNK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
GETTING SHEARED OFF AND IMPACTING US THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY BE ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OR JUST TO WEST ON TUESDAY,
WITH A SOUTHWARD TO SEWARD PROGRESSION THAT WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
LOWERING OF HEIGHTS, SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT, AND SOME
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION THAT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HELPING
GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS WILL BE, AS ONGOING CONVECTION TODAY AND ADDITIONAL
EXPECTED STORMS TOMORROW WILL LIKELY PLAY A COMPLEX ROLE IN HOW THE
ACTUAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT LOOKS THROUGH LATENT HEAT EFFECTS.
MODELS SHOW A VARIETY OF OUTCOMES, BUT ALL PRODUCE STORMS CAPABLE OF
DECENT RAINFALL RATES. GIVEN PWATS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 2"
ACROSS MANY AREAS, RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2" AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE
IF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OCCURS. CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING
TO AN EXTENT, WHICH WOULD IMPACT SBCAPE POTENTIAL. THAT'S A LOT OF
CAVEATS, BUT THE TAKE HOME IS THAT YOU SHOULD EXPECT SOME RAIN AND
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW
NUMEROUS ACTUAL STORMS MAY BE.
BY WEDNESDAY, LARGER SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS WILL BE
DRAWING COPIOUS MOISTURE INTO IT THAT WILL SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. IN ADDITION, LARGE BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH
OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE AIDING THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WHAT
WE WILL LACK COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS IS THE EXTRA FORCING
MECHANISMS, SO EXPECT MORE TRADITIONAL DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE A BIT AS ENSEMBLES SHOW A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING NORTH GEORGIA BUT STALLING. MOST MEMBERS HAVE
THAT STALL SHORT OF THE CWA, MEANING WE COULD SEE SOME ENHANCED
MOISTURE POOLING AND POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. DIURNAL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS STICK WITH US THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM.
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, WE CONTINUE TO SEE VARIOUS OUTCOMES WITHIN THE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE
WITHIN THE GULF THAT SPINS OFF THE CAG. THE MOST THAT CAN BE SAID IS
THAT IT STILL NEEDS MONITORING, BUT UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT ANY IMPACTS
(IF ANY) LOOK LIKE REMAINS VERY HIGH. AT THE VERY MINIMUM IT WILL
LIKELY BE A SOURCE OF VERY HIGH MOISTURE AIR THAT COULD BE TAPPED
INTO BY ANY SYSTEMS THAT APPROACH THE AREA GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
STAY TUNED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN GA -- MAINLY WITHIN
AREA OF SHRA THAT'S ONGOING. VFR PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. A GRADUAL
LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS (4-6SM) EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY. IFR CIGS PSBL AT METRO SITES AROUND 08Z AND PATCHY LIFR
BY 10-12Z LASTING THRU 14Z. IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR PSBL BY 15Z AND
PREVAILING MOST OF THE DAY. SPOTTY SHRA REMAIN PSBL OVERNIGHT AT
ALL SITES, THEN PREVAILING BY 12Z-14Z AND LASTING THRU MOST OF THE
AFTN PERIOD. EMBEDDED TSRA PSBL DURING THE AFTN (19-00Z) THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SW WINDS 3-7KTS THRU THE PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
07
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 68 81 67 87 / 40 60 10 20
ATLANTA 69 82 68 86 / 50 60 10 40
BLAIRSVILLE 64 77 64 81 / 60 70 20 70
CARTERSVILLE 69 83 69 87 / 60 70 10 40
COLUMBUS 70 87 69 90 / 30 50 10 10
GAINESVILLE 68 79 67 84 / 60 50 20 40
MACON 69 83 67 88 / 40 50 0 10
ROME 68 84 68 86 / 60 60 10 40
PEACHTREE CITY 68 83 68 87 / 50 50 10 30
VIDALIA 72 87 70 91 / 20 20 0 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....LUSK
AVIATION...07
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page