707
FXUS62 KFFC 080809
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
409 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST GEORGIA
DUE TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.
- DAILY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STAY IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.
- FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
THANKFULLY WE WERE SPARED OF THE IMPACTS OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
THAT OCCURRED JUST TO OUR WEST IN ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. RAINFALL RATES
GENERALLY TRENDED 1-1.5" AT MOST, THOUGH CURRENTLY ARE LESS THAN
HALF AN INCH. MRMS ESTIMATES ROUGHLY 1-2" OF RAIN FROM DADE DOWN
TO TROUP COUNTY WITH POCKETS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 3-3.5" IN A
FEW SPOTS HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PAST 24-HOUR. COUNTIES EASTWARD
OVERALL TRENDED LESS THAN AN INCH OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. LIGHT
AND IN SOME CASES MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AND MAY
DIMINISH THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL GA. LATEST GOES WV
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE OK/AR/MO
AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT NE THROUGH THE MORNING AND PROVIDE
SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY
ACROSS NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA. MORE OF THE SAME CAN BE
EXPECTED HEADING INTO TUESDAY AS MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCES TO OUR
NORTH TRAVERSE EASTWARD.
OUR MAIN CONCERN FOR BOTH TODAY (MONDAY) AND TUESDAY WILL MONITORING
RAINFALL RATES AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BLOSSOM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IN WAVES. STRONG S/SW FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO THE
UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BOUNTIFUL MOISTURE STREAMING
INTO THE AREA AND WEAK FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS MEANS THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY 'TRAIN' (OCCUR IN THE SAME AREAS
REPEATEDLY). PER SPC MESOANALYSIS, OUR PWS CURRENTLY SIT IN EXCESS
OF 1.8" ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH VALUES CLOSEST
TO 2.0" CURRENTLY HUGGING WESTERN GA. THESE HIGHER VALUES, A DAILY
MAX PER SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY, WILL INCH EASTWARD AS THE
SHORTWAVE (MENTIONED PREVIOUS), SWINGS NORTHEAST. THUS, ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HIGH RAINFALL
RATES AND DROPPING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME POSING
A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH GA AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ATL METRO FOR TODAY. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS AT LEAST ANOTHER 1-2" OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND WEST GA AND LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER, WOULD NOT
BE AT ALL SURPRISED TO SEE HIGHER TOTALS (2-3+" GIVEN THE STATE OF
THE ENVIRONMENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MORE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL GA, ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD COVERAGE
DECREASES ANY.
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
SETS UP TODAY. BUT IN CONSIDERING THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT AND HIGHER
FORECAST RAIN TOTALS SETTING UP IN AREAS THAT ALREADY RECEIVED
DECENT RAINFALL, ELECTED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH AND WEST GEORGIA THROUGH THIS EVENING. POSSIBLE EXPANSION AND
EXTENSION OF THE WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED BUT WILL DEPEND ON HOW
THINGS PLAY OUT TODAY. WITH SUMMER IN FULL SWING, ENSURE YOU ARE
CLOSELY MONITORING THE FORECAST AND REMAIN AWARE OF AREAS THAT
RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AS THESE AREAS WILL BE PRONE TO
FLOODING. THIS IS ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT FOR THOSE PARTAKING IN
ACTIVITIES OUTDOORS AND CAMPING NEAR BODIES OF WATER.
CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP A LID ON OUR TEMPERATURES OVER
THE NEXT 2 DAYS. FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST PLACES
BUT REACH THE MID 80S ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA. MILD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH NIGHT WITH FORECAST VALUES IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING CHANCE TO NUMEROUS POPS ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH DAY 7 WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
GEORGIA DUE TO THE BERMUDA RIDGE STICKING AROUND. A VERY MOISTURE
LATENT ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WITH PWAT VALUES EXPECTED IN THE 2" TO 3"
RANGE EACH DAY. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES KEEP TEMPERATURES WED
AND THU MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH TEMPS GETTING UP INTO THE 90S FOR FRI
AND SAT. WITH HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND VERY WARM TEMPS COULD SEE
SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES GETTING UP INTO THE 100 TO 104 DEG RANGE
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
BY DAY 5 THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO SHOW VERY SIMILAR BUT SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. BOTH ARE SHOWING A TROPICAL SYSTEM BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF, AND UNLIKE YESTERDAY, THE GFS IS NOW
TAKING THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM WESTWARD INTO THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO.
THIS IS WHAT THE ECMWF WAS SHOWING AND IS STILL SHOWING TODAY. THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IS THE STRENGTH OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE GFS
IS SHOWING A MUCH MORE ROBUST SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE BERMUDA RIDGE KEEPING SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES, SOME OF THIS DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE COULD MAKE ITS WAY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD MEAN MUCH HIGHER RAIN RATES AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK.
IT IS GOOD TO SEE THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THINGS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN GA -- MAINLY WITHIN
AREA OF SHRA THAT'S ONGOING. VFR PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. A GRADUAL
LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS (4-6SM) EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY. IFR CIGS PSBL AT METRO SITES AROUND 08Z AND PATCHY LIFR
BY 10-12Z LASTING THRU 14Z. IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR PSBL BY 15Z AND
PREVAILING MOST OF THE DAY. SPOTTY SHRA REMAIN PSBL OVERNIGHT AT
ALL SITES, THEN PREVAILING BY 12Z-14Z AND LASTING THRU MOST OF THE
AFTN PERIOD. EMBEDDED TSRA PSBL DURING THE AFTN (19-00Z) THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SW WINDS 3-7KTS THRU THE PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
07
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 81 68 81 67 / 60 40 60 10
ATLANTA 81 70 82 69 / 80 50 60 10
BLAIRSVILLE 76 64 78 64 / 90 60 70 20
CARTERSVILLE 81 69 84 69 / 80 60 70 10
COLUMBUS 88 72 85 69 / 30 30 50 10
GAINESVILLE 79 68 80 68 / 70 60 50 20
MACON 85 70 83 67 / 50 40 50 0
ROME 80 68 85 68 / 80 60 60 10
PEACHTREE CITY 82 69 83 67 / 70 50 50 10
VIDALIA 90 72 88 70 / 20 20 20 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
GAZ001>007-011>014-019>022-030>034-041>046-053>055-057.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...07
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