153
FXUS62 KFFC 090533
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
133 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST GEORGIA
DUE TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.
- DAILY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STAY IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.
- FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
VERY WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH PWATS STILL OVER 2" AS MEASURED
VIA THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING. THIS IS STILL WELL OVER THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR PWATS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST GA
UNTIL 9PM THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS (WITH LIMITED LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY) HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES/METRO
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. CORFIDI VECTORS AND ESTIMATED
STORM FLOW SUGGEST SLOW MOVING AND TRAINING HEAVY SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE EFFICIENT WHILE POTENTIALLY NOT
EVEN REACHING HIGH ENOUGH TO DEVELOP LIGHTNING. RAINFALL RATES MAY
REACH 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WITHOUT TRIGGERING MUCH OR ANY
LIGHTNING. ANY STORMS THAT DO PRODUCE LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. FLOOD RISK WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE
STORMS SET UP, MEANING THE WATCH IS CONDITIONAL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WHICH ARE LIKELY FOR AREAS OF NORTH GEORGIA ARE 1 TO 2 INCHES
THROUGH TOMORROW, DECREASING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LOCALIZED
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON STORM
DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL INSTABILITY AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER REDUCED CAPE AND WATER LOADING WITHIN STORMS.
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TOMORROW AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE, HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
(SEE 500MB VORTICITY AND 2PVU SURFACE).
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MODERATED BY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVERAGE AND
PRECIPITATION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW 80S THROUGH TOMORROW
BEFORE WARMING UP MONDAY AS CLOUD COVERAGE DECREASES. LOWS WILL ALSO
BE MODERATED IN THE UPPER 60S BUT GRADUALLY INCREASE TO THE LOW 70S
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
LONG TERM STARTS WEDNESDAY WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST, ESPECIALLY AT THE SURFACE, THOUGH IT ISN'T -QUITE- AS
MOIST AS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. FORECAST PWATS ARE IN THE 1.75"-
2.00" RANGE, WHICH WHILE STILL A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE, AREN'T QUITE THE
MORE EXTREME 2"+ VALUES SEEN ON SOME OF THE SOUNDINGS RECENTLY. A
STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS AND CANADA, WHILE A SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST INTO CLASSIC BERMUDA HIGH POSITIONING.
THESE IN TANDEM WILL KEEP SURFACE MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE AREA. A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT WEDNESDAY, BRINGING WITH IT SOME
POTENTIAL SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTION WITH WARMING UPPER LEVELS,
THAT STICKS AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN MOISTURE
REMAINS APLENTY, EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BOTH
DAYS.
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP TOWARDS THE CWA ON FRIDAY BUT STALL
BEFORE ARRIVING. DEPENDING ON THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT, RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE OR DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN
GEORGIA. FURTHER NORTH MAY DECREASE THEM, WHILE FURTHER SOUTH WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL POOLING OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT TO REACH INTO NORTH GEORGIA. THIS FRONT LINGERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING MOISTURE AROUND AND DIURNAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN PLACE. WE'LL ALSO SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE 90S IN MANY AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM,
WHICH WILL BRING HEAT INDICES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN A WHILE.
FINALLY, GOOD NEWS (AT LEAST WITH TODAY'S TROPICAL SUITE). GEFS HAS
DECIDED TO BECOME ALIGNED WITH WHAT THE EURO HAS BEEN SHOWING FOR A
BIT, WHICH IS THAT ANY TROPICAL WAVE THAT TRIES TO SPIN OFF THE CAG
CROSSES THE YUCATAN AND ENDS UP IN THE SW GULF WHERE IT STRUGGLES TO
DEVELOP, IF AT ALL. THIS LIMITS IMPACTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, AS
WITH THE SYSTEM BEING THAT FAR SOUTH IT IS HARD TO EVEN TAP INTO THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE. LET US HOPE THIS TREND CONTINUES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS (ABV 5KFT) DOMINATE TONIGHT BUT IFR AND
PERHAPS LIFR TO FILL IN SHORTLY LASTING THRU 14Z BEFORE SLOWLY
LIFTING BACK TO MVFR AND VFR FOR MOST OF TUESDAY. VSBYS BTWN
3-5SM WILL BE PSBL IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY. -RA WILL BE
ON AND OFF OVERNIGHT. SHRA INCREASES AROUND 12-14Z AT THE NORTH
SITES WITH EMBEDDED TSRA PSBL MID-DAY INTO EARLY AFTN THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SSW TO SSE WINDS 3-6KTS THRU THE PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
07
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 67 89 70 92 / 20 20 0 10
ATLANTA 69 88 72 90 / 20 20 10 20
BLAIRSVILLE 65 83 66 85 / 20 40 0 50
CARTERSVILLE 69 89 71 90 / 20 20 10 30
COLUMBUS 69 92 72 93 / 10 20 0 20
GAINESVILLE 68 86 70 89 / 20 20 10 20
MACON 67 90 71 92 / 10 10 0 10
ROME 69 88 70 89 / 20 20 0 30
PEACHTREE CITY 68 89 70 91 / 20 20 0 30
VIDALIA 70 92 72 95 / 0 10 0 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....LUSK
AVIATION...07
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