098
FXUS62 KFFC 091849
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
249 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY.
- FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
- RISING HEAT INDICES EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
FORECAST VALUES IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S BY LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA BROUGHT AN INITIAL RAPID
INCREASE IN CONVECTION EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT HAS GRADUALLY
SHIFTED EASTWARD. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING ACTIVITY AMID BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND SBCAPE INCREASING INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 2" WITHIN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE. STORMS
WILL ONLY SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD, SO EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION
AND SLOW MOVEMENT COULD CERTAINLY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED STREET
FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
WILL LEAD TO MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THAT AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SOME VESTIGES OF THIS COULD NEAR FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA
BY LATE EVENING, THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY WANE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL SUPPORT AFTER SUNSET.
WEDNESDAY BRINGS LOWER RAIN CHANCES AS UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS ITS
GRIP EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THE ODDS FOR MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WEAK LINGERING SHORTWAVE OR MCV LOOK
LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY, BUT ISOLATED
DIURNALLY MAXIMIZED POPS CAN BE EXPECTED. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS, WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS DEWPOINTS
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AND HIGHS NUDGE BACK INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM ON THURSDAY, PRESIDING HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LARGELY DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN, SUMMERLIKE CHANCES (20-30%) FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL A HIGH PWAT (1.6" OR
GREATER) AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT, ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS, AND
LOCALIZED/NUISANCE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
DAILY, EVEN WHEN NOT FORMALLY OUTLOOKED IN WPC'S EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK. HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD UNDER LINGERING RIDGING, WITH
HIGHS WARMING A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WHEN HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 90S FOR MOST. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON OUR FAR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TIER -- DEPENDING ON HOW TEMPERATURES AND
APPARENT TEMPERATURES WOBBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, SOME LOCATIONS
MAY APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT LEAST BRIEFLY ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BREACH THE FORECAST AREA AND LINGER AROUND ITS
MIDSECTION. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL LIFT WILL HELP BOLSTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK (CHANCES GENERALLY 50% OR GREATER). SOME WEAK
ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE -- LARGELY FROM SURFACE/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INFLUENCES -- BUT BROADER SCALE KINEMATICS REMAIN WEAK
UNDER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE
INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT WILL TEMPER OUR HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
COMPARABLY "COOLER" IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
SCT SHRA/TSRA PEAK IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 00Z BEFORE
QUICKLY DIMINISHING THEREAFTER. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THIS EVENING. AREAS OF LOW
CIGS/PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 06-09Z WEDNESDAY BEFORE
IMPROVING AFTER BY 14-16Z. LOWER SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE, MAINLY
ISOLATED IN COVERAGE, IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE SE AT 3-6 KTS, BECOMING CALM TO LIGHT AND VRB AFTER 00Z
AND SW AT 3-6 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING CIGS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OTHER ELEMENTS.
RW
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 67 89 70 92 / 10 20 10 20
ATLANTA 69 88 72 90 / 20 20 10 20
BLAIRSVILLE 65 82 66 85 / 20 50 10 50
CARTERSVILLE 69 89 72 91 / 20 30 10 40
COLUMBUS 70 93 73 94 / 10 10 10 10
GAINESVILLE 68 86 70 90 / 10 30 10 20
MACON 68 91 71 93 / 0 10 0 20
ROME 69 89 71 90 / 20 20 10 30
PEACHTREE CITY 68 90 71 91 / 10 20 10 30
VIDALIA 69 93 73 94 / 0 10 0 20
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...RW
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