727
FXUS62 KFFC 271816
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
216 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
..NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW STORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUST ON SATURDAY.
- HEAT WILL BUILD THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100
FROM SUNDAY ON.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
OVER THE COURSE OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND ADVANCE INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. AS
IT MOVES OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION TODAY, A SHORTWAVE
OVER WEST TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY WILL BE DISPLACED SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. THIS WILL MOVE THE WAVE THROUGH FAR
NORTH GEORGIA AND TOWARDS THE CAROLINA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN STATE LINE. THIS WILL UNFORTUNATELY NOT BRING ANY RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT, BUT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO NORTH GEORGIA. POPS WILL BE HIGHEST TO THE NORTH OF I-20, AND
WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE (15-25%) OR LESS TO THE SOUTH. AS
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT WARM AND MOIST GULF
AIR INTO THE REGION, LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL START IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM
RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS, HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
THE RECENT WARMING TREND, RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR AND IN THE MID 90S TO THE
SOUTH. WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 70S, HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 95-100 ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85 AND 100-104 IN
AREAS TO THE SOUTH.
WITH INCREASED BUOYANCY AND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT, COMBINED WITH
SBCAPE AS HIGH 1500-2500 J/KG, CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS COULD
DEVELOP IN EAST TENNESSEE AND FAR NORTH GEORGIA BY THE MID-
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST. DOWNSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS CONTINUE
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THOUGH THESE STORMS WILL HAVE LESS
0-1 KM SHEAR TO WORK WITH AS THEY CONTINUE SOUTH THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT, STRONG LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
SBCAPE IN A WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN. THIS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THERE REMAINS A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN PORTIONS OF FAR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE WAVE
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN PORTIONS OF EAST GEORGIA,
ULTIMATELY DIMINISHING AS THE RIDGE DISPLACES THE WAVE AWAY TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
BY SUNDAY, THE RIDGE WILL BE APPROACHING 595 DAM AS IT CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY, WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS BUILDING RIDGE WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED WARMING ON SUNDAY. WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY, HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 90S IN
FAR NORTH GEORGIA AND MID 80S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. HEAT INDEX
VALUES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 98-104 ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
LOWER VALUES ONLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HEAT INDICES OF 105 DEGREES OR
HIGHER WILL MOREOVER BE POSSIBLE IN EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA IN THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY IN
AN ENSUING FORECAST PACKAGE. SPORADIC RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL COME
IN THE FORM OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
THOUGH THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND HEAVY RAIN.
KING
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASINGLY
HOTTER TEMPERATURES THAT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA AS A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN US. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 90S MOST AFTERNOONS NEXT WEEK, WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY LIKELY CREATING HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR OVER 100 DEGREES
(WITH 105+ POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS) AT TIMES. AS OF NOW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE THREATENED MOST DAYS, THOUGH NBM
CURRENTLY HAS ~40% CHANCE OF TYING/BREAKING THE RECORD AT ATL NEXT
THURSDAY (99 DEGREES). REGARDLESS, THIS LEVEL OF HEAT IS LIKELY TO
LEAD TO INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES FOR THOSE SPENDING
EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME OUTDOORS, WITH WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS OFFERING
ONLY LIMITED RELIEF. PEOPLE ARE REMINDED TO DRINK PLENTY OF WATER
AND TAKE BREAKS FROM THE SUN WHENEVER POSSIBLE IN ORDER TO LIMIT
THEIR HEAT RISK EXPOSURE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD,
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR UNLIKELY OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TIED TO LOWER PREDICTABILITY FEATURES
SUCH AS OUTFLOW/SEABREEZE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE IN THE AREA.
WARE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
POPUP SHRA/TSRA DVLPG VC ALL TAF SITES, ESP ATLANTA METRO & AHN - TS
RISK CONT THERE THRU 22-00Z. VFR PREVAILS AWAY FROM PCPN. WINDS WSW
AT 8-12 KTS, WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS, SUBSIDING AFT 01Z, TO 3-6 KTS.
WINDS INCR AGAIN AFT SUNRISE, OUT OF THE WNW, AT 5-10 KTS. LOW VFR
EXP AFT 13-14Z, WITH CIGS AROUND 3-5K FT. LOWER CIGS PSBL, WITH
GREATEST RISK FOR AHN/RYY. POPUP SHRA/TSRA PSBL AFT 15Z TMRW FOR
ATLANTA METRO & AHN, BUT TOO LOW CONF TO INCLUDE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH FOR WIND, MEDIUM ALL OTHER ELEMENTS
CRS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 73 93 75 97 / 20 20 0 30
ATLANTA 75 92 76 95 / 20 20 0 20
BLAIRSVILLE 67 85 68 88 / 60 50 10 30
CARTERSVILLE 73 91 75 94 / 30 40 10 20
COLUMBUS 74 93 75 95 / 0 10 10 20
GAINESVILLE 72 90 73 94 / 30 30 0 20
MACON 74 93 75 95 / 10 20 10 40
ROME 73 91 74 95 / 30 30 0 10
PEACHTREE CITY 73 92 75 94 / 10 20 10 20
VIDALIA 75 96 76 96 / 10 10 20 50
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KING
LONG TERM....WARE
AVIATION...CRS
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